"You knew that I always wanted to pretend to be an architect!"

 

Sorry, wasn’t challenging you, more making an observation about their history of failure when assuming what pilots will do when it comes to bids and bumps.

 

True but in this case they had all the applications in hand and they know how many pilots are coming out of DEN and into TK.

 

Fair enough! That might be the most organized I’ve seen them in the past 3 years if that’s the case.

 

I completely agree with you SUX4U! They COULD have had all that info, and SHOULD have but, you know...
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice... apply for a job in planning.
In all seriousness, the recent shuffles especially the 787 IAH thing instills ZERO confidence that this is actually well thought out and planned.

 

Can you show the math on any of that other than Delta hiring more than united which is true for pretty much the entire last decade.

Yup and I’m mostly a pessimist when it comes to United and they rarely miss the mark. I tried to be an optimist this week. I was looking forward to flying MUC again in March as previously advertised, but the company did not disappoint my normal self and pushed it back to April. I only moved back 1% in base on this latest bid so I got that going for me.

Please tell me what Tony Robbins books you are reading because I could really use some help seeing the awesomeness at United.

 

You commute to work don’t you?

 

Nope live 25 minutes from the airport in a hot humid stagnant base where for some reason all the senior people are moving to.

 

Sure

Delta, according to air fleets.net, has 860 jets. They are parking all of their MD-80/90 fleet by 2020 which is 166 aircraft plus an unknown amount of old 757s and A320s. They have 200 or so aircraft on order so their fleet will remain mostly flat.

United by comparison has 100 or so jets due by the end of 2020 and we are not retiring anything. after 2020 we have 100 more 737 due.

So by 2020 if we from by 6-8% every year and don't park any jets we will be roughly the same size as DL. Which means our upgrade should be pretty close to inline with theirs.

The most Junior DL CA today is on the MD-80 so unless that pilot gets someone junior to them on a bid before they start displacing off the MD-80 they will have to displace into an FO seat.

The next junior CA aircraft is the 717, a 100 seater, I do believe that UA will have a 100 seat aircraft order on the books by early next year or sooner. If that happens UAs upgrade will drop to a year just due to the pay rates.

DL has 2014 hires as CAs on the airbus and 737 as I said above we are only 1000 numbers away from this here at United. My guess is by spring of next year there will be a 2013-2014 CA on the 737/320 at United.

DL has hired over 1000 a year for the last 4 years while United has hired 600 on average. That means that there are 400 more pilots to get through every year at DL to make CA. So by 2020 I think United will have more junior CAs than DL.

I know there are a ton of assumptions in there but going off of todays info and a successful growth plan United will be on the same playing field as DL by 2020. Thats my math.

 

I like where you are going with this.....my concern/question is “How much of the 6-8% growth assumption is based on increased utilization rates of existing personnel and equipment, rather than growth thru additional personnel and equipment”? Been watching a disturbing pattern of deferring delivery’s for awhile now.