I agree and me too!!

 

United is:

#800's from a 5 year CA
#1000's from a 4 year CA
#1200's from a 3 year CA

And those numbers INCLUDE 200+ furloughs still with recall rights.

DL has hired more pilots every single year than UA 2012-present. My 2018 bold prediction is that UA will succeed in growing at 6-8% through 2020 and that by 2021 we will have a fleet roughly the size as DL (including 100 seaters) and UA will have a quicker upgrade than DL. And with our industry leading WB fleet UA will be the place people will want to work over DL and AA.

 

I tend to agree with you. Of course with the standard disclosure nothing in this business ever stays the same and literally anything can happen.

That being said we finally have a management team that wants to run an airline and exploit the best hubs and overall route network in the business.

I’ve posted this before and I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me. I believe we have approximately 220 & 185 less mainline narrowbody vs. AA and DAL, however our Widebody flying is significantly bigger then both.

I’m going to make a bold prediction that on our new contract we are going to be the first Legacy to fly 70/76 seater. I also believe we will buy 100 seaters.

My sources tell me both the company and union are motivated to get a deal completed this year. I don’t see the union agreeing to scope concessions. The company wants and needs to grow and wants more 76 seaters. Sure they could order SNB but that would take beyond 2020 to take delivery and grow more 70/76 seaters allowed by Scope choke. They wouldn’t be able to make the recently reported growth targets. The only way to do this is by having mainline fly 70/76 seaters and a mix of new SNB.

 

I predict this outcome as well. Kirby has proven that he will take risks and flip the norm on its head.

I honestly believe that a 70 seater can be flown profitably at mainline. I think Kirby will do a test run of a small fleet to see just what the CASM is and if the test run is successful all 70 seaters will be brought in house if it fails....well then we better make sure our scope section is strong.

 

This also solves the pilot shortage at the regionals now and in the foreseeable future, and the impending one at the legacies in the next five to ten years.

 

Economic cycles come and go. Airlines shrink and grow way out of proportion to a few percent of GDP growth or shrinkage that defines a recession or booming economy. You can probably take the GDP movement and multiply it by 3 to 6, and that is the percentage of revenue change at airlines with the economy.

Strap in. Or on, diversitally speaking.

 

I read it differently. I think the company is eager to have a deal as it gives them labor stability and wallstreet loves that. But, ALPA, on the other hand is fine with running the act. ALPA is happy to have a deal on ALPA's terms. In this environment, where labor has the advantage, ALPA needs to maintain the high ground. ALPA should not give in on any of our negotiating bottom line and cornerstone issues.

An industry leading contract with industry leading scope and job protections. Don't see any real motivation for ALPA unless its on the pilot group's terms.

I agree. ALPA won't give in on scope, therefore, likely a long contract fight.

 

I agree this contract is very livable for a drawn out fight I’m not interested in giving anything up and I don’t think ALPA is either. The company has to know that, so they better come out strong.

 

Agreed.

Also, From the company perspective. If it drags on for a few years, they are ok with that too. The contract seems to be working well for the pilots and management. However, the longer past the amendable date with no contract I note two things: Wallstreet may get anxious, and Kirby becomes less credible to his management peers, superiors, and to the Board of Directors. If we, the pilot group do not have faith in Kirby, and think he's off his "scope rocker" then we simply kick the can.

 

Very possible outcome. Based on history I would agree. However, this doesn’t give the company the growth it needs especially in 70/76 seat arena. Oscar and Kirby need to pull this off in the short term to make their growth plans work and show the BOD they are competent and not react to Wall Streets severe concerns.

Based on what I’ve heard from several union reps and committee volunteers I’ve talked too and a pilot that recently completed captain charm School where Oscar, Kirby and Todd Insler all spent considerable time with them. Both the company and the union are motivated to get a deal done this year. The union believes it is very possible that mainline could be flying 70/76 seaters.

My gut feeling is we have a slightly better then 50/50 chance of getting a contact this year or early next year. If not you are probably right it’s most likely a traditional length negotiation cycle. Time will tell.