1806v
 

Just out . . .

and from the update . . .



https://ualpilotsforum.org/download/file.php?id=7211

Wow
(filler to contain the exuberance)

Ditto....

Between this vacancy bid and our profit sharing this year I can barely contain my excitement..

I, too, wish it were a little more:

1803v 117 cap 165 fo
1804v 41 cap 21 fo
1805v 63 cap 75 fo
1806v 18 cap 59 fo

total 239 cap 320 fo

So over a six month period you have 559 vacancies and only 239 captain slots. With almost 400 retirements and 24 confirmed new planes. It simply doesn't seem to add up?

Hey Hoss,
Do you think that between the vague references to bigger bids for next summer, and the construction and staffing issues at TK ending that maybe we might be near the end of this stagnation?

Hoping......
(again, still) :p

I'm guessing a big vacancy bid at the start of the summer with a training date of September. I don't see a lot of new hires in the plan because manpower still believes that furlough bypass will come back this year... just my opinion by reading the tea leaves.

In my opinion 2017 was stagnated with the parking of the 747 early and almost all at once. 2018 is going to be stagnated up with the remaining furlough recall guys returning. After 10 years with company, my seniority number continues to climb monthly but it has not resulted in any BES improvements except coastal 320 and 737 FO. Hoping 2019 returns to more historically traditional movement in both seats. Time will tell.

The report from the SSC recently confirmed the rune that the company wants to be much leaner with less reserves and higher LPA for lineholders. That could also be why they're bleeding retirements and not hiring topl cover them. A short of SWA operation is what they want. They said they want reserves flying 50-60 hours a month. They're nowhere near that right now.

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Agreed. This along with 350 747 pilots and up to 300 furlough returnees moving into other existing fleets equals relative stagnation
we are seeing relative to other competitors. IMHO

We also still have bases that are way out of whack. We have 2 new hire classes worth of pilots sitting as FO in DCA on the 777, and thats before the loss of the GUM - NRT 7 day trip. We have 1 class of new hires sitting as FO in SFO on the 787. According to the last snap shot it looks like with the reduction of RSVs the 777 has 113 extra FOs, you take out the 777 DCA overstaffing and you get 79 thats another 2 new hire classes.

They also have an entire vacancy bid worth of WB CA bids sitting as CA in SFO on the 787. and that translates into upward movement stagnation and less new hires.

We aren't stagnant because of no growth or lack of opportunities we are stagnant because of the failures of man power planning with the Smizek regime, fences, 747 parking and the constant shifting of airframes in and out and back in to bases. The lack of backfills is what has killed the new hire numbers.

Not enough co-pilots

It appears as though the company is planning on the pilot group flying allot of "over time" in the form of premium pay trips. That just might be their business plan.

Also, it may be baked into the cake that management doesn't believe in the impending doom and gloom of the so-called pilot shortage. If they aren't jumping through hoops into hiring mode, then they believe there will be no shortage of qualified applicants.

Exactly. We are staffing "internally" because some BES's are still overstaffed and "Jeffed" up.

So what your saying is those of us hired in past 12-14 months are Fcd! No movement and RSV forever. While Delta has 2 year upgrades :D

Personal opinion - I don't think so at all and I think MoP is right. Definitely not endless stagnation if jr in jr bases on the narrow body side.

On the plus side we managed reasonable but not earth shattering 2017 profit despite having this "fat" to trim plus the big cost of the IAH hurricane. Factor in Kirby's planned annual growth for the next 3 years and what appears to be some network vision and the trimming won't take very long and we're in better shape going forward.

Not trying to put on the rose colored glasses but there's a lot of good here.

Ways to save money in Contract '18??? :)

Remember the furlough mitigation LOA? That was a scope relief LOA disguised as furlough mitigation. It was a back-room deal done by the scheduling chair who wasn't even a member of the NC. Then, a motion to go into exeucutive session to consider. Our current contract was public knowledge, our scope language was public knowledge, and so was the company's intent to furlough 147 pilots.

Why the need to consider the joint venture (scope relief) LOA in executive session? why not give it to the reps to take home and read through, and why not show it to the entire pilot group out in the open?

It wasn't about saving money in contract '02. It was about saving face. Company held those pilots hostage not the union. The company then creatively devised a plan to release the hostages they took and asked the union to pull the trigger on it in secret (executive session). Let's see, we can pull the pin on the hand-grenade that destroys the profession for all, or we can pull the trigger on the gun that shoots 147 pilots in the head.

What a splendid furlough adventure and what glorious additional flying opportunities there were. Funny, those management pilots never worked so hard in their entire lives....

They don't have 2 years upgrades at DAL. They have a few fleets/seats that are so unpleasant to fly that only the young, petulant, and greedy are silly enough to bid them.

If you are a new hire, now is the time to switch teams. Don't wait. Go to DAL now and be a JFK mad dog Captain in under 2 years.

Even so, my close friend upgraded to 717 Captain in a little over 3 years. I’d still call that quick.

Transitory only. 3 years from now, the Jr Captain at DAL might have 15 years seniority. I have seen this movie before. This is my 3rd showing.

+100

I'm not surprised at new pilots lamenting relative movement compared to Delta, but I am surprised at some of the regulars chiming in. By now every pilot in the world should know being a pilot is like playing a game of musical chairs. All you can do is hope that there's a chair near you when the music finally stops.

Maybe so, and thanks for sharing your immense perspective.

I just found out this morning that another guy I know is a NY-based Airbus Captain with less than 4 years at DAL... and holds a line. I'm glad they are enjoying it during this transitory period.

My prediction, and this is as solid as it gets because I work at TK;

We will either hire a lot or almost none at all.

You can take that the bank!!

100% accuracy! You must be the oracle of Quebec street!

First snapshot is out.

Ugh. All 8 Den guys senior to me!

And a whole lot more senior guys waiting to get in

Well you said might, but if Delta stagnated like United is now the junior CA at Delta would be 5 years on property the junior CA at United would be 13 years on property. I don’t think Delta was hiring in 2003 so you’re probably off a couple of years. If the industry goes through enough turmoil to shift CA’s at Delta to 15 years as you say, the doors will be shutting at United. Any way you rack and stack the numbers United is a poorly managed airline, and that along with demographics has resulted in stagnant seniority list. If I was in new hire class or even finishing up year one at United and Delta called I’d bail in a heartbeat, and I live in a United Hub.

You are such an unhappy person I have never read a single positive post by you. Sitting next to you all night on the way to South America must be a nightmare.

It would be VERY shortsighted to go to Delta after a year. Why? Look at how many young people they have hired in the last five years. Things will be great when you get into the left seat of a mad dog but realize that long term you will have 2000-3000 people younger than you for your entire career stacked ahead of you. I'm young and am projected to have less than 100 guys ahead of me when I retire. So if I were to bail to DAL for a short term gain (which would be nice) long term it would be a disaster.

Hold the line on scope and we'll get through this.


Buy the ticket, take the ride. Hunter S. Thompson

I agree and me too!!

United is:

#800's from a 5 year CA
#1000's from a 4 year CA
#1200's from a 3 year CA

And those numbers INCLUDE 200+ furloughs still with recall rights.

DL has hired more pilots every single year than UA 2012-present. My 2018 bold prediction is that UA will succeed in growing at 6-8% through 2020 and that by 2021 we will have a fleet roughly the size as DL (including 100 seaters) and UA will have a quicker upgrade than DL. And with our industry leading WB fleet UA will be the place people will want to work over DL and AA.

I tend to agree with you. Of course with the standard disclosure nothing in this business ever stays the same and literally anything can happen.

That being said we finally have a management team that wants to run an airline and exploit the best hubs and overall route network in the business.

I’ve posted this before and I don’t have the exact numbers in front of me. I believe we have approximately 220 & 185 less mainline narrowbody vs. AA and DAL, however our Widebody flying is significantly bigger then both.

I’m going to make a bold prediction that on our new contract we are going to be the first Legacy to fly 70/76 seater. I also believe we will buy 100 seaters.

My sources tell me both the company and union are motivated to get a deal completed this year. I don’t see the union agreeing to scope concessions. The company wants and needs to grow and wants more 76 seaters. Sure they could order SNB but that would take beyond 2020 to take delivery and grow more 70/76 seaters allowed by Scope choke. They wouldn’t be able to make the recently reported growth targets. The only way to do this is by having mainline fly 70/76 seaters and a mix of new SNB.

I predict this outcome as well. Kirby has proven that he will take risks and flip the norm on its head.

I honestly believe that a 70 seater can be flown profitably at mainline. I think Kirby will do a test run of a small fleet to see just what the CASM is and if the test run is successful all 70 seaters will be brought in house if it fails....well then we better make sure our scope section is strong.

This also solves the pilot shortage at the regionals now and in the foreseeable future, and the impending one at the legacies in the next five to ten years.

Economic cycles come and go. Airlines shrink and grow way out of proportion to a few percent of GDP growth or shrinkage that defines a recession or booming economy. You can probably take the GDP movement and multiply it by 3 to 6, and that is the percentage of revenue change at airlines with the economy.

Strap in. Or on, diversitally speaking.

I read it differently. I think the company is eager to have a deal as it gives them labor stability and wallstreet loves that. But, ALPA, on the other hand is fine with running the act. ALPA is happy to have a deal on ALPA's terms. In this environment, where labor has the advantage, ALPA needs to maintain the high ground. ALPA should not give in on any of our negotiating bottom line and cornerstone issues.

An industry leading contract with industry leading scope and job protections. Don't see any real motivation for ALPA unless its on the pilot group's terms.

I agree. ALPA won't give in on scope, therefore, likely a long contract fight.

I agree this contract is very livable for a drawn out fight I’m not interested in giving anything up and I don’t think ALPA is either. The company has to know that, so they better come out strong.

Agreed.

Also, From the company perspective. If it drags on for a few years, they are ok with that too. The contract seems to be working well for the pilots and management. However, the longer past the amendable date with no contract I note two things: Wallstreet may get anxious, and Kirby becomes less credible to his management peers, superiors, and to the Board of Directors. If we, the pilot group do not have faith in Kirby, and think he's off his "scope rocker" then we simply kick the can.

Very possible outcome. Based on history I would agree. However, this doesn’t give the company the growth it needs especially in 70/76 seat arena. Oscar and Kirby need to pull this off in the short term to make their growth plans work and show the BOD they are competent and not react to Wall Streets severe concerns.

Based on what I’ve heard from several union reps and committee volunteers I’ve talked too and a pilot that recently completed captain charm School where Oscar, Kirby and Todd Insler all spent considerable time with them. Both the company and the union are motivated to get a deal done this year. The union believes it is very possible that mainline could be flying 70/76 seaters.

My gut feeling is we have a slightly better then 50/50 chance of getting a contact this year or early next year. If not you are probably right it’s most likely a traditional length negotiation cycle. Time will tell.