The 320 new hires/recalls were numbers based on classes since Sept.

You do remember we stopped hiring basically from March to Sept, with a few add classes in between?

So my point was from Sept, this year until now, things are good, but I also don't count my chickens before they hatch.

This new bid is awesome, I'll admit.

Let's keep it going though like our competition.

My point on growth still stands. Have we broken 13,000 yet? When we do, I'll agree we are on an upward trend.

And another thing...

We started out 2018 with Bid 18-06 at the end of January. Number of Active pilots on that bid - 11,029. Number of active pilots on the latest bid... - 11,141. That's 1% growth in the last year...hardly anything to write home about.

We've had a decent number of retirements or leave's to make things look kinda rosy for the last few months.

Let's take a look at Dec 2019 and see if the number of active pilots is up close to 12,000 and if we ever break the 13,000 pilot ceiling we haven't ever broke...

These are reality numbers and can still be looked up online. 1% "growth" right now could be a statistical anomaly. And I don't consider myself a pessimist. I'm a realist.

The numbers don't lie. Maybe next year we'll grow more than 1%. And for the 787 numbers, take a look at what bases will shrink to stand up DEN. There are 20 CA and 49 FOs in LAX that won't be backfilled. So maybe a year or 2 of overstaffing in LAX 787 to create DEN 787.

We’ve also increased a lot of efficiencies in staffing. I know that’s not a manpower positive thing, but my point is that I would guess the ramp up in hiring is going to lead to increased numbers.

As has been written, the company is learning the pilots ability to bail them out during short term staffing needs. I wonder how many upgrade and widebody FO opportunities that is costing us for the benefit of a select few at the top of each list.

That is part of it. Carlson has been getting the manpower where the relatively new senior management and their planners want it. United has one less FTC, one less fleet (747), 756s are one bid group for a total of 5 sub-fleets while AAL & DAL have 8 & 9 sub-fleets respectively. Schedulers are getting reserve utilization up and using premium pay and SRM to cover peak flying. But they are running out of these opportunities to grow without more pilots and the increased hiring and vacancy bids seems to bear that out.

This is the first bid I’ve seen since my time at United where every seat has a bid and those that don’t can’t afford to lose a pilot and will be back filled.

The only exception is LAX 787 CA/FO and IAH 777/787 FO. This means the airline is nearly perfectly staffed for the first time in years. However we are still not fully efficient due to the above categories being over staffed.

The constant displacements might have come to an end for a while. The constant right sizing of the airline over the last 6 years has made us all more productive therefore less hiring.

I’m quite certain that there were two large classes in June (5th & 19th) and one smaller class in July and two in August...

Yes, I don’t remember the exact class breakout numbers per class, but if the SSC numbers quoted in an earlier post are accurate, basically from Apr-Sept there were classes tallying around 120.

There were 7 classes with approximately 270 pilots from June through September. April and May were the only two months in 2018 without classes.

http://fapa.aero/hiringhistorymonth.asp

Great website. I've never seen it before and don't know how accurate the numbers are...but if it's accurate, it proves my point.

Look at UAL numbers vs SWA, AA, and DL.

We are lagging significantly. Just because things are "better than they have been in quite some time" doesn't mean we are keeping up with our competition.

I will state again that I am very happy with this bid.

I would like to see the trend turn into what SWA, DL, and now AA is seeing this year. I had no idea AA was eating our lunch too in regards to hiring numbers.

Things are good, but relative to the top competition, we have a long way to go. We need to pick up the pace and start growing, and not regionally.