Oh ok I misread
Sorry

How many of that 8000 is Age 65 retirements and how many are "planned" growth????

I don't think you are having 900 retire a year for the next 9 years??

I am somewhat confident in retirements happening (Age 65 change?)

I am never confident in "planned" growth!

It’s 65, early outs and expected growth.

The last number I saw was that our average retirement age is 62.7.

If I recall, the expected growth is around 10% of that 8000.


GP

Ual has 6300 retirements between now and 2030. If we continue to grow at 3-5% over the next two years as expected we will hire 7000. My guess is we will also hire close to 8000 over the next 10 years

You are assuming the 3-5% is mainline growth when it's recently been 1% and the other 3-4% has been their regional partners. It's got to the point when they announce a new destination you assume it's a regional flight.

Not being a Debbie Downer, but history shows a couple of things.

1. Managing 12K sized pilot operation is about max.
2. As soon as you all start counting your growth chickens the furlough notices begin.

Yes the retirements will help, but I would not expect any real growth in the market. I would expect more consolidation (merges).

Please explain the difference between 8k, 12k, and 14k? I’d love to hear your answer. I have no doubts that United can handle 16k and we just might. And while I can agree with relying on growth, retirements is our insurance policy. Half the company is gone within 12 yrs. It’s great times and stop holding on to the past and welcome the reality. The industry is changing. It’s a great thing!!!!!!!

Ok the number of pilots represents the actual size of operation flown by UAL, not the hireling RJ outsourcing airplanes.

Historically the size of operation that requires about 12K+ pilots becomes a huge moving object that when the winds of change come about the losses mount very rapidly. Another analogy is when a small rudder attempt to turn a big ship (Titanic) and it just won't change course quick enough.

Of course history is never a perfect predictor of the future, but we also tend to repeat the same mistakes regardless of our past.

How many pilots have we added since the merge?

Mainline fleet:
2010 - 710 pilots 9878 13.9 per airplane
2011 - 701 pilots 9929 14 per airplane
2012 - 702 pilots 10187 14.5 per airplane
2013 - 693 pilots 10553 15 per airplane
2014 - 691 pilots 10612 15.6 per airplane
2015 - 715 pilots 11204 15.7 per airplane
2016 - 737 pilots 11454 15.5 per airplane - Kirby took charge this year
2017 - 744 pilots 11494 15.4 per airplane
2018 - 770 pilots 11742 15.2 per airplane

UAL has 60 more airplanes since the merge and added 1864 pilots. That's 31 additional pilots per additional airplane since the merge.

Yes stats can be twisted and lie to us, but the efficiency of a large operation seems to begin to decrease at a more rapid rate.

And since I'm not in charge of anything beyond my scope as a pilot all I can do is point out what I'm sure the World HQ masters already know.

Now you can read the numbers any way you want.

All info from UALCAL Hlds 10K reports.

What I see this management wanting is to keep mainline about the same size and expand the outsourcing in every way possible. Thus they expand UAL's market without adding capital expenses to the balance sheet.

I also have to ask, how is the industry changing?

Flying airplanes is basically the same as it was 40 years ago except the navigation technology is superior, and we can fly a 17 hour leg.

The big change is in marketing through the internet and selling every last seat for whatever the market will bear. And these days we cram at least 25% more people into the same space.

Pass travel is nothing like it used to be. That I will give you.

Shot in the dark here... aren't our planes being much more efficiently used than a few years ago... i.e. sitting around less w/ quicker turn times and less idle time? Some of that is definitely going to require more crew members and it's still a positive if that's the case since we're not having the capital costs of new planes in order to do more flying.

Second question - but it would probably have to be broken out by ASMs or WB/NB but how does that compare to peers?