Originally Posted by Sunvox (Post 2912979)

2019 revenue $43.00 billion
2019 profit $3.80 billion
2018 payroll $7.774 billion
2018 PS $0.35 billion
Other Est. $0.25 billion

So now we can do the math:

Step 1: total profit plus other plus last years PS : $3.80 +.35 +.25 =$4.40 billion


Total profit is already $3.07. Assume like Q4 it’s another $.814M. Total profit est 3.884. Profit sharing is already $.368 plus assume $.082 from Q418. Total profit sharing est $.45. FY18 “Other was .927 - .334 or .593. For this reason I’d adjust your number above to read 3.884 + .45+ .593. = $4.927 billion



step 2 what is 6.9% of 43 billion : $43.00 billion x 0.069 = $2.97 billion


Already $32.371B through Q3. Add last years Q4 rev of $10.491 and 2019 FY est is $42.862B. $43 is close enough.



step 3 10% of that number is what : $2.97 x 10% = $297 million


step 4 what percentage of payroll is that : $297 million / $7774 million = 3.9%


This years operating salary is 5.4% higher. 7774 million x 1.054= 8194 million. 3.624%

step 5 then how much at the 20% level : $4.4 billion - $2.97 billion = $1430


$4.9 billion - $2.97 billion = $1.93 B

step 6 what is 20% of that number : $1430 x 20% = $286 million

$1.93 x 20% = $386 million


step 7 what percentage of payroll is that : $286 / $7774 = 3.7%

$386 / 8194 = 4.71%

Last but not least : 3.9% + 3.7% = 7.6%

3.624% + 4.71% = 8.334%

Originally Posted by Sniper66 (Post 2913039)

So your guess
8.334% for 2019? Or so far for 3 quarters.

Originally Posted by Sunvox (Post 2913138)

That post was copied and pasted from another forum. The steps were originally my post, and then the stuff in italics was another person's response. My guess was 7.6% and his guess is 8.33%

Originally Posted by Sniper66 (Post 2913228)

For the year?
Because management said 25/30% higher than last year on some reports I read before during their announcement of 1.3 b for 3q

Last year was 6.67%

Originally Posted by Sunvox (Post 2802652)

: . . .

Revenue $43 billion
Earnings $3.8 billion
payroll $7.8 billion

So first 6.9% of $43 million = $2.967 billion and that is the amount of profit of which we get 10% then $3.8 - $2.967 = $833 million and that is the amount of profit of which we get 20%.

So $2.967 x .1 = $297 million / $7774 oayroll = 3.8%
and $833 x .2 = $166 million / $7774 payroll = 2.1%

Finally 3.8 +2.1 = 5.9%

If payroll goes up 5% the percentage falls to 5.6%.

If we save a $1 billion dollars in fuel the percentage goes up to 8.5% or said another way - every $100 million in fuel savings adds about 0.3% to PS.
. . .

Originally Posted by Sunvox (Post 2805282)

. .

You can't hide much. So no you actually can predict PS with a great deal of accuracy, and we can make a bet and see in February next year if I am close. I predict that we get between 5 to 7% this year.

We'll see :D

Originally Posted by Sunvox (Post 2913281)

Yes, the PS guesstimate is 7.6% to 8.3% of your full year wages. Last year was 5.6% Management is "managing" expectations. The steps I outlined are exactly how PS is calculated. The unknowns are "other" and the final Q4 profit and revenue, but my 7.6% estimate is assuming a low number for "other" and profit in line with what the company told Wall St. to expect in the last earnings call. The gentleman who came up with the 8.3% number used a higher estimate for "other" and a higher estimate for Q4 profit, and he had a more accurate number for payroll.


My original guesstimate earlier in the year based on forecast expectations for 2019 was 5-7%, but I said every $100 million in savings adds about 0.3%. UAL exceeded the high end of their profit estimates, saved $200 million on fuel compared to last year, and kept cost increase well below revenue growth which net net is adding to PS for the year.

There really is little need to "guess" once you have the actual steps involved and 3 quarters worth of earnings and revenue.

https://i.postimg.cc/j5RX6s9N/PS2018a.jpg




What I should have said is every $100 million increase in profit adds about 0.3% whether that increase comes from cost savings OR revenue growth, but my focus in that post was to high light why our PS was so high in 2015 and that was because the average cost of oil that year was unexpectedly low at about $45 per barrel which goosed the PS check and that is not likely to happen again.





https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/u...t-sharing.html

Originally Posted by Riding123 (Post 2914300)

Do United Pilots get the extra 16% put in their 401ks off profit sharing the Delta guys get?

Originally Posted by Riding123 (Post 2914300)

Do United Pilots get the extra 16% put in their 401ks off profit sharing the Delta guys get?

Originally Posted by DontGetHooked (Post 2914311)

No extra 16%, but we get crew meals.