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OK, so approximate numbers:
2900 (active, taken from the displacement min/max, so not including SUP, etc.) already in the NB FO categories (the pool from which the furloughs will be drawn), maybe 3300-ish total 2200 (updated total, including SUP, etc.) spilling into that pool as a result of the displacements ========= 3300 x 30% cut = about 1000 + 2200 = about 3200 on the street ================ Reasonable math or no????? |
Originally Posted by Nucflash
(Post 3052207)
OK, so approximate numbers:
2900 (active, taken from the displacement min/max, so not including SUP, etc.) already in the NB FO categories (the pool from which the furloughs will be drawn), maybe 3300-ish total 2200 (total, including SUP, etc.) spilling into that pool as a result of the displacements ========= 3300 x 30% cut = about 1000 + 2200 = about 3200 on the street ================ Reasonable math or no????? |
Originally Posted by Nucflash
(Post 3052207)
OK, so approximate numbers:
2900 (active, taken from the displacement min/max, so not including SUP, etc.) already in the NB FO categories (the pool from which the furloughs will be drawn), maybe 3300-ish total 2200 (updated total, including SUP, etc.) spilling into that pool as a result of the displacements ========= 3300 x 30% cut = about 1000 + 2200 = about 3200 on the street ================ Reasonable math or no????? |
Had my MBA class run the numbers...For what i
Originally Posted by ugleeual
(Post 3052209)
no... you can’t assume that displacement equal furloughs. Even Carlson said they plan on carrying overages in domiciles by shifting some flying around... he knows it won’t be a perfect displacement. Best guess is everyone hired from 2016 (contract stipulation for 76 seaters) probably cut... so less than 2200 more realistic.
Take it or leave it, garbage in garbage out but the best I could think of to assist in the decision process....90% confidence factor which is so-so for corporate decisions...80% being high risk, 95% being low risk... Student answers were within 500 pilots for each team...On January 2022 UAL will need a high of 10,150 and a low of 7, 450. Most likely, the highest probability is around 9500. For what it is worth to assist. Here is the software ... I think UAL is using the same software but likely with a more focused model. https://www.crystalballservices.com/...Suite-OptQuest My advice, find a good ops analyst, or if you guys have an MBA or know an MBA dust off the Opes text you used as a door stop for you masters and run your own numbers. If I'm close I hope it helps. If I'm way off my apologies. |
Originally Posted by mathteacher
(Post 3052229)
as a parting effort to assist the folks having to make a tough decision i had my mba class (i teach operations analysis and decision science) make predictions on how many pilots ual would need january 2022 using mathematical/economic models from 2001 and 2008. All they could use was the relationships between the real economy and airline pilot numbers at ual. No factoring in covid, just economic data and forecasting software called "crystal ball problem solver". They used three programs...monte carlo simulation, simplex method and regression analysis. Data from the real economy was unemployment rate, disposable income, savings rate, credit card debt, inflation, oil prices, real estate prices and household income. They did not know any nuances about how tk works, or pilots retiring or any airline stuff. They used only the 2001 time frame, and the 2008 time frame to build their model. They used capacity at the airline as an equivalent measure for # of pilots which took out different airplane types. There were 6 teams of 4 students each that worked the problem. Students backgrounds were in hr, finance, supply chain and the military. No pilots in the group so completely naive. I provided the number of pilots from public sources for 2001, 2008 and today. We used the real unemployment rates, the u6 rate, instead of the headline number which is usually 5% lower. As an example our real u6 now is about 20%, not 15%. Did not look at all at legacy cal, just old ual alone.
Take it or leave it, garbage in garbage out but the best i could think of to assist in the decision process....90% confidence factor which is so-so for corporate decisions...80% being high risk, 95% being low risk... Student answers were within 500 pilots for each team...on january 2022 ual will need a high of 10,150 and a low of 7, 450. Most likely, the highest probability is around 9500. For what it is worth to assist. My advice, find a good ops analyst, or if you guys have an mba or know an mba dust off the opes text you used as a door stop for you masters and run your own numbers. If i'm close i hope it helps. If i'm way off my apologies. |
Originally Posted by mathteacher
(Post 3052229)
As a parting effort to assist the folks having to make a tough decision I had my MBA class (I teach Operations Analysis and Decision Science) make predictions on how many pilots UAL would need January 2022 using mathematical/economic models from 2001 and 2008. All they could use was the relationships between the real economy and airline pilot numbers at UAL. No factoring in Covid, just economic data and forecasting software called "Crystal Ball Problem Solver". They used three programs...Monte Carlo Simulation, Simplex Method and Regression Analysis. Data from the real economy was unemployment rate, disposable income, savings rate, credit card debt, inflation, oil prices, real estate prices and household income. They did not know any nuances about how TK works, or pilots retiring or any airline stuff. They used only the 2001 time frame, and the 2008 time frame to build their model. They used capacity at the airline as an equivalent measure for # of pilots which took out different airplane types. There were 6 teams of 4 students each that worked the problem. Students backgrounds were in HR, Finance, Supply Chain and the military. No pilots in the group so completely naive. I provided the number of pilots from public sources for 2001, 2008 and today. We used the real unemployment rates, the U6 rate, instead of the headline number which is usually 5% lower. As an example our real U6 now is about 20%, not 15%. Did not look at all at Legacy Cal, just old UAL alone.
Take it or leave it, garbage in garbage out but the best I could think of to assist in the decision process....90% confidence factor which is so-so for corporate decisions...80% being high risk, 95% being low risk... Student answers were within 500 pilots for each team...On January 2022 UAL will need a high of 10,150 and a low of 7, 450. Most likely, the highest probability is around 9500. For what it is worth to assist. My advice, find a good ops analyst, or if you guys have an MBA or know an MBA dust off the Opes text you used as a door stop for you masters and run your own numbers. If I'm close I hope it helps. If I'm way off my apologies. You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?! Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave. Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom. May 2020 join date. Motch |
Originally Posted by horrido27
(Post 3052243)
Um.. didn't you quit?
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?! Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave. Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom. May 2020 join date. Motch |
What’s the point of running staffing models without using the “nuances” of training & retirements? They play a huuuge role in figuring out staffing, along with people out on various leaves and LTA. Are u talking 9500 “active” pilots? Or total? I appreciate the effort but it truly sounds like garbage in garbage out.
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Originally Posted by mathteacher
(Post 3052229)
As a parting effort to assist the folks having to make a tough decision I had my MBA class (I teach Operations Analysis and Decision Science) make predictions on how many pilots UAL would need January 2022 using mathematical/economic models from 2001 and 2008. All they could use was the relationships between the real economy and airline pilot numbers at UAL. No factoring in Covid, just economic data and forecasting software called "Crystal Ball Problem Solver". They used three programs...Monte Carlo Simulation, Simplex Method and Regression Analysis. Data from the real economy was unemployment rate, disposable income, savings rate, credit card debt, inflation, oil prices, real estate prices and household income. They did not know any nuances about how TK works, or pilots retiring or any airline stuff. They used only the 2001 time frame, and the 2008 time frame to build their model. They used capacity at the airline as an equivalent measure for # of pilots which took out different airplane types. There were 6 teams of 4 students each that worked the problem. Students backgrounds were in HR, Finance, Supply Chain and the military. No pilots in the group so completely naive. I provided the number of pilots from public sources for 2001, 2008 and today. We used the real unemployment rates, the U6 rate, instead of the headline number which is usually 5% lower. As an example our real U6 now is about 20%, not 15%. Did not look at all at Legacy Cal, just old UAL alone.
Take it or leave it, garbage in garbage out but the best I could think of to assist in the decision process....90% confidence factor which is so-so for corporate decisions...80% being high risk, 95% being low risk... Student answers were within 500 pilots for each team...On January 2022 UAL will need a high of 10,150 and a low of 7, 450. Most likely, the highest probability is around 9500. For what it is worth to assist. Here is the software ... I think UAL is using the same software but likely with a more focused model. https://www.crystalballservices.com/...Suite-OptQuest My advice, find a good ops analyst, or if you guys have an MBA or know an MBA dust off the Opes text you used as a door stop for you masters and run your own numbers. If I'm close I hope it helps. If I'm way off my apologies. Best of luck to you. |
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