It will be interesting to see what direction Kirby takes us regarding the UAX/UAL fleets. If he were to buy enough new NB aircraft to get the max number of 76 seaters, we’d gain about 90 aircraft, while UAX would gain 70 new 76 seat aircraft, but they’d also have to eliminate about 175 of the 50 seaters. Their block hours would also be reduced to 68% United NB block. On the other hand, if he decides to add used 737/320’s to our current fleet, UAX doesn’t get any more 70/76 seaters and the single class 50 seaters just fade away. With just the existing 70/76 seaters out there and the 550’s, UAX wouldn’t be able to get close to the number of block hours that they have in the past. I’m hoping for some cheap Max 7’s or good used 737-700’s or 319’s. The 50 seaters are nearing the end and I’d rather not allow UAX anything more than the 70/76 seaters that they currently fly.

 

United merely transferred those airplanes along with the old TSA birds that had previously transferred to XJT over to C5 because C5 is a LOT cheaper. And C5 is in the beginning stages of a huge ramp up to fly many, if not most of those airplanes. And Kirby's message was never that the 50 seat RJs were going away completely. He said "mostly" a thing of the past. When those statements were made, UAX carriers were flying almost 400 50 seat aircraft. What remains to be seen is what his definition of "mostly" is.

 

From what I understand, C5 is going to end up operating some of those planes, not all, and probably not even most. It isn’t just due to COVID that they were considering ways to dramatically shrink the 50 seaters. Several years ago in a company statement when they announced the 737-700’s that never happened, they said that the order would allow them to get down to around 100 of the 50 seaters. CommutAir may get some temporary growth, but it will most likely be short lived. My guess is that by 2025 the single class 50 seaters will be gone, and United will have 3 or 4 regionals flying the 175’s and 550’s.

 

and I bet that there are discussions going on right now along the lines of...

”Hey, we don’t want to buy a small narrow body. How about we give you 100-200 A319 or 7 MAX in order to get more 70/76 seater.”

 

Of course there is. There were similar offers before COVID and the union said no. The company wants Delta’s scope limit without doing what Delta did to get it. That was the big issue holding up contract negotiations before COVID hit. The union wants as much of the flying flown by United pilots as possible. The 50 seaters are unpopular and getting really old, so why give the company anything? Scope is maxed out, and as the 50 seaters age out, the only option to replace that lift is with United pilots.

 

Prior to COVID, United was doubling down on the 50 seaters, especially the 145s. They were getting new paint, cabin refreshes, and even wifi. XJT was told the only limitation to increased 145 flying at that point was their ability to hire and retain pilots. All of XJT's old 145s (and TSA's) are now on the C5 certificate. How many actually get operated is the question, but I'm betting there will be 80-100 total in operation by late summer. Maybe that only lasts for a few years, but it's a doubling or tripling in size for C5.

 

They were also in contract talks and pushing hard for more 175’s without buying another fleet type, but the union held their ground. Kirby wants more rj’s, the union doesn’t, and both are in the fight for the long haul, so putting some lipstick on a pig was his only remaining option. The one thing that doesn’t change is that as our competition moves to bigger planes and the 50 seat fleet ages and grows more unpopular with our customers, they are nearing the end of their service life with United. Kirby has one contractual option to get more 70/76 seaters. That option would increase the number of United aircraft while decreasing the total number of UAX aircraft and significantly reduce the allowable percentage of NB block that UAX can fly. The other option is to let the 50 seaters age out and replace all of that flying with United pilots. The ball is in Kirby’s court.

As far as C5 goes in the short term, I’d agree that they will be flying more jets than they were. Unless United decides to spread the 70/76 seaters and the 550’s around rather than concentrate them at the larger companies already operating them, I’d expect the airlines that only operate single class 50 seaters to be gone within 5 years.

 

Anyone here on APC accomplish the Max sim yet? Curious if the sim is taking the entire 4hrs.
I would like to avoid spending the night.
Thanks

 

Brief 1.0
Sim 1.5
2 paired crews so 1 crew could be done really early.

 

Pass your potential travel desires to your instructor ahead of time. Should be no problem.