Most of these triggers suggest we’ll be under the LOA for the entirety of ‘21. The more important metric to watch in the short term will be pilot block hours. Above 70% 2019 numbers, we’re effectively very near UPA hourly guarantees, even with the LOA in effect. Since multiple termination triggers require certain metrics to be met across one or more quarters, it’s likely we’ll see multiple months at 70MPG before the LOA actually gets officially terminated.

So while we probably won’t see termination in ‘21, I’m mainly hoping for block hours to get up into a more comfortable range before this round of stimulus expires.

stimulus expires 3/31/2021
april will be 60 % of 2019
may and thereafter 70 % and possible higher after vaccinations reach 70% of the population

I think we will be in the 60-70% range for the summer. This fall in September when the schedule gets the seasonal pull down and most have had the vaccine we will be above 70% and the LOA will be over......our 5% pay raise will take a lot longer.

You do realize in the past week we cut off a cheap supply of oil from our neighbors to the North, made international travel difficult through mandatory Covid testing and signed on to pay exorbitant carbon taxes our competitors won’t have to pay. Nome of these policies bode well for our UAL? This is just the beginning of a long road to October 2022.

there’s always a disaster isn’t there.....it’s amazing anyone even gets out of bed anymore.

Aside from a few petrostates scattered across the world, I don’t think our oil prices are going to be that much different than what (MOST) other people pay, carbon tax included.

in referencing our competitors, that is a pretty vague statement… Who exactly are we competing against these days? If you listen to some of the top brass, in some ways it’s everyone, but in other ways it’s ourselves. We focus on high-yield originating traffic in our hubs. secondarily, when gunning for Connecting people intra/internationally, we are competing more against Delta and American, than Emirates, Cathay et al.

hard to say what policy will work to get the global economy back close to 2019 activity. But I would be skeptical of anybody telling me that they know what the future holds, red or blue policy-wise.

don’t forget the new patriot party policy-wise

That would be a good thing. With all the crazy conspiracy theorists, cultists, and all around nut jobs gone I might be able to reassociate with the GOP.