The end of the LOA
 

As the vaccine effort begins to ramp up, and the cdc announced tests for international travel...is the end of the loa in view sooner?

Realistically, no. At least not until next year in my opinion. Travel will take time to recover. Lockdowns/quarantines suppress international leisure travel, and business travel will be last to bounce back. Keep at it and we'll turn the corner soon!

But I heard the world is coming to an end. All doom and gloom. Forever. You mean it is not true?

The vaccine will take some time to distribute and become effective. Hopefully demand will be accelerating by fall and we can phase out of cheap tickets and start generating sustainable revenue next year. After that, all we need to do is wait for all of the promises to come true. We’ll be getting those 737-700’s, growing the list to 16,000 pilots, taking delivery on the A350, and making the 50 seaters a thing of the past. It could happen. 😉

I wish they would kick the vaccinations into gear! The difference between vaccines delivered and shots given is disappointing. I love the optimism of Deltas prediction of a return to profit by the end of the year, but it certainly doesn’t feel like we are “winning” yet.

Well, maybe “winning” like Charlie Sheen is.

I would say the more interesting question to ask, is which termination trigger will be the one to end the LOA. I would guess the 80% load for one quarter. Depending on how aggressive/low-yields the company will go this summer, I don’t think a Q3 with 80% is out of the realm of possibility. Not likely, but possible.

if the cash flow situation gets in hand, maybe 2 quarters of profitability Q3 and Q4, even if loads are 60-70%

Be interesting to see travel demand after 26 Jan..... when the new CDC mandate goes into effect dictating a positive test upon return to CONUS mandatory for all residents

CdC already talking waivers to countries that cannot handle quick COVID testing... I’m thinking Mexico, Caribbean, South America, and possibly India on this list.

Where on the CDC website is this list?

nothing firm yet on waivers... CDC Director said on the rollout that they were aware of testing issues in various countries and would be working limited waivers. Time will tell as we get closer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN29H2WR