Sunvox

Two months ago United.com showed the following destinations out of EWR on the 777 for the summer of '22:

HKG
PVG
PEK
DEL
BOM
NRT
HND
TLV
GRU
FCO
SFO
LAX
HNL

From what I can tell we now are losing or have lost:

HKG
PVG
PEK
DEL
BOM

Am I crazy or does anyone else see major displacements on the horizon?

Anyone in Captain Charm school that has heard from upper management as to any plan to replace this flying?

ugleeual

I doubt it short term… They are still trying to recover from the covid displacements and the ripple effect that started almost two years ago… I think they’ll keep over staffing the WB bases and roll the bones for awhile.

Dave Fitzgerald

As long as the Chinese gov keeps playing games with the Covid rules and layovers, I don't think any of the China flying is going to return soon, now to include HKG. Next year maybe?

C11DCA

Joe,

You have been here long enough to know that change is the only constant in this industry. Two years ago record displacements, and potentially record furloughs to record hiring a year later. Its a wild ride.

If you get displaced, you get displaced. Nothing you can do to change it, so why worry? Save the stress and enjoy your new 777 Captain seat. Just remember its all due to your former students that you are where you are today.

Sunvox

Hah! Thanks for that G!

I admit it gives me some pleasure when I think 2 of my students made it to UAL (but their not supposed to be senior to me like Mikey K. )

Anyways, no need to worry. I'm not concerned for myself, but rather just wanted to throw an idea out there that maybe the "music" could slow down, and the crazy growth/hiring that everyone here is used to MIGHT take another pause. Might not, but then again who knows.

Regardless, just let me add that I love reading your posts both here and on the other forum as well. You seem to have become a wealth of detailed facts, and I love it. Keep us keyboard commandoes honest!

Airhoss

You just scientifically described the airline career at large.

SquawkIdent

I think widespread displacements are unlikely due to the regional staffing situation.

The VP of planning has stated that the company is in a short-term jam with regional feed in the mid-con and eastern hubs. They don't have the feed that they need/want because the regionals can't staff enough flights. The replacement for that feed is going to be provided by the big narrowbody order aircraft delivered over the coming 1-2 years and the current pilot hiring to staff those jets.

In the past, if the airline wanted to shrink and displace they always had the option to send flying back to the regionals. But that no longer seems to be possible. For better or worse, the company seems to be committed to the expansion plan to replace the regional feed that's been lost.

That's not to say that the international flying (or lack thereof) won't be an issue for the short-term. But I'm quite doubtful that we'll see mass displacements and furloughs. In fact, I’d wager that we see another vacancy bid very soon.

But seriously

I doubt this will happen, but… to play devil’s advocate:

If UAL gets the the point where they want to shrink, it’s likely that AA got there before them and DAL is not far behind. That would mean that all this crazy hiring would stop and and regionals would be able to staff their planes again. UAL could easily delay a portion of their 737 deliveries. Boeing isn’t exactly in the strongest negotiating position.

Like I said, I don’t think that’ll happen. UAL seems pretty committed to the current plan, but they wouldn’t be the first airline to rethink their 10 year plan two years in…

DG1000

I wish they’d over staff the 787 bases. I for one, at the least, would like to be able to for trade trips that are in open time. If you look at the pool displays we are under min reserve coverage everywhere. Often by double digits.

massgflight

Until Taiwan is invaded or Putin throws a nuke, bet the farm we keep hiring. IF those things happen or IF oil were to breach $200……think Chernobyl.