I’d add 777 ORD as likely

that could make some sense, and the reopening of 777 at Ord/lax, and add den while we’re at it. Company can’t fill sfo777 but they could sure as hell find takers for den777. So much flying thru den and lax now it seems.

it’s a new environment, company is adjusting to it, they have no choice basically. Not enough pilots for every airlines’ growth plans. What separates the airlines all on top tier contracts…..1 word, domiciles.

With the current spread from junior reserve to junior lineholder being about 7 years, it looks like a little longer than that. Fix reserve and you probably would be looking at quite a bit longer. It’s science.

I think the bidding behaviors of certain age groups will defy the science. All projections have assumptions. It's not a simple numbers game

Millenials, 🤔

Everybody... these are generalizations

Millenials- late starters on life due to financial crisis out of college etc, late to marry, late to have kids.. trying to buy homes during historic inflation and appreciation, need higher wages just to get started. More mobile than older crowd and willing to upgrade in base due to QOL bump from more $$. Knows music could stop anytime.

Z (pilots only)- Just got here. Walked Into the best hiring environment in 35 yrs, only known the good times, young, hungry, often single or newly we'd, highly mobile and flexible, willing to upgrade and take the cash and play like a 25-28yr old would want to. More trusting of management growth aspirations than other gens.

X- burned and burned badly. Like a beaten puppy. Only known bad times and cant wrap head around latest industry developments. Highly skeptical of everything related to this job. QOL for them means only one thing- Senior FO on a livable wage. Commonly commuters. Won't touch the left seat until they are well-established LH captains. Won't upgrade after TA2 because the reserve rule improvements have to be higher than we'll likely get at 51%+.

Boomers- jumping out of those ugly coastal bases for those sweet low tax states, should we get them. Kids gone. No need for that expensive house in orange county. Retiring soon. Time to shore up finances & spend time on a boat telling stories of BK/Mergers. Bidding behaviors in this regard only exacerbate coastal vacancies.

My years in the industry have given me the cynical belief that everyone talks big in the cockpit & online. Few admit to being money chasers but there are plenty out there. (That’s not to say they don’t understand the importance of a good contract, just that they’re willing to do the hard work for extra pay.) Along very general lines I tend to agree with Bobby Lee’s demographic analysis above. Time will tell.

Great Summation!

Gen X here, pretty much spot on. Just adding that a bunch of us living in DEN camped out at TK instead of commuting to the wide body right seat. I’m seeing more and more of the long time PI’s wearing four stripes in DEN ops now days.

I sincerely hope that Gen Z doesn’t get to learn the lessons that management taught us. I don’t trust the SOBs and I never will. Unfortunately at the moment ALPA is a bigger threat than management.

I expect management to try and bite us on every contract. I don’t expect ALPA to pet them on the head and encourage them like they did on TA-1.

Kind of reminds me of the Whiteford days. Gen Z needs to understand that management is not your friend and ALPA apparently needs to relearn the same.

Spot on for me, although I sat out the lost years only to return to get CPZ furlough just for good measure. I'm playing the hiring game as a UAL hopeful and would strongly consider bidding WB SFO if I do make it to UAL. LAX WB would be nice if that ever happened. This is betting on RSV rules improve.