Sorry to add on to OP’s thread. But I’m in a similar situation. Live in Chicago, currently with SWA but still on probation. Just got the Hogan from United. I’m huge on not commuting, so 1st question, how long to hold ORD at UA? 2nd, is there an upside to starting over, as in the potential to recoup the lost time by starting over at UA vs SW. I know I do t even have a decision to make until I do, but my magic 8 ball is currently on the fritz.

ORD is growing and has unfilled vacancies. You could very likely get it in indoc or first vacancy.

ORD within 6 months on multiple fleets and you can be a 737 CA off probation at UA.

Upside- quicker upgrades, Widebody flying, flying things that aren’t a 737, and a bunch less legs per day if you do fly the 737.

They said that ***for now***. We’re buying what, 500 aircraft over the next few years? Where else are we gonna park them? Kirby wants to take the fight to the regionals and we have no presence in the SE. the odds of us turning Tampa or Orlando into a full fledged hub are much higher than not. Maybe it will be 2024, maybe 2044 but I bet anything a new hire will see it happen during their career.

Building a SE hub is some airliners.net type wishful thinking as it is a costly endeavor to build a hub from scratch. Realistically, we will see a combo of older NB frames retired, small growth with undeveloped hubs and mainline growth via upgauaging regional routes…

What a time to be a pilot!!!

Either one and you’re good to go. Have a fantastic career.

Two years ago (charm school) management said no chance of MCO base… never say never.

How many of those 500 are replacements for metal being retired?

How many are net additions?

ORD is crazy right now for UA.

We have a vacancy bid that is open right now and closes on Tuesday. On the snapshot after accounting for requests for the current requests for all active pilots we still end up with unfilled vacancies in ORD for:

A320 FO
B737 CAP
B737 FO
B756 FO
B787 FO

This is the first time that 787 FO is showing as unfilled. The growth/movement right now across the system is so fast it makes getting the base you want basically immediate or on the next vacancy bid. Those have been running about every 6-7 weeks. The only caveat to that is that if you are very young you might get "forced" in the 777 as an initial assignment and then you wouldn't be able to get ORD since we don't (currently) have a 777 base in ORD.

Captain assignments have been going "unfilled" for about a year now and have gone unfilled everywhere but MCO, CLE, and GUM. You have to have been here a year to bid Captain, so with the crazy hiring it means that another 200 pilots per month are able to bid it if they want. Even with that every vacancy bid continues to have unfilled Captain assignments. The guess is that with a new contract (with hopefully significant workrule improvements) we might see more people willing to take the bid, but with all the planes that are coming I am not sure anything will be enough. Fortunately, a bunch of those new airplanes are replacing 50 seaters on the regional side, with much of that affecting our larger hubs that are gate restricted. So ORD and EWR are and will continue to reap the benefits of that transition with Regionals shrinking and Mainline growing.

So, I am not sure what WN has going at MDW, but ORD is a definitely a growth option at ORD.

We are adding quite a bit of 777 flying to/from Orlando this Spring that will be staffed by our other triple bases (IAD, EWR, IAH & SFO). Totally speculative but the massive influx of Puerto Ricans and to a lesser extent Brazilians to C.Florida in the past 25 years means that high density 777-200 service to SJU and GRU/GIG is, I've been told, being studied by our network planners. LHR, subject to slot allocation/shuffling, could certainly support a daily 777 the way Brits like their Florida vacations. Add in the gate space that just opened up in our Airside 3 along with our maintenance facility there and I think a future MCO 777 base is absolutely feasible. Especially as gate constrained as all our existing hubs will become with 150 more aircraft this year alone.
I think we will grow our presence at MCO with either more 737 positions, a small 777 base, or both. Good luck with your decision!