524 Retirements in the next 365 days not counting pilots going on LTD. There will still be bids almost every month since most of those pilots are WB Captains and they will need to be replaced and their seats backfilled.

While true about retirements, those guys aren't exactly the most productive and even SK says that he expects that. Now there's likely gonna be the next set of guys that are less productive warranting hiring/vacancies. I still see hiring coming for modest growth (1000/yr or so) but don't forget that the average pilots aren't flying the "normal LPV schedules" either. I'm guessing the company would rather run a bit lean on staffing in the near term and maybe ramp up for next summer.

“near retirement” guys not being productive is a feature of our sick policy and not a bug as they draw down their accrued hours. Has nothing to do with age or being senior but only with getting paid for staying home “sick”

Senior pilots productivity nearing retirement is a data point with significant history that the company has and can see its a continued trend. It will continue to occur by new people nearing retirement and so I don’t believe there will be any less backfills from retirements. The trickle down affect of a 787 captain retiring is significant. At the lowest affect he/ she would be replaced by a 737 CA which would create 3 events, the 737 CA to 787 CA upgrade and then for instance 737 FO to 737 CA which in turn creates 737 FO event either a new hire or some kind of internal. Similarly how furloughs/ displacements are cost prohibitive.

I think we will see pilot hiring at retirement numbers or more.

I was very pleased with the outlook, even should a recession hit they believe they will turn a good profit.

A couple of things here..

No one, at any airline, should make decisions based on plans. Plans change. What has been discussed is where MCO could go and the potential in the coming years.

The only thing factual that you stated is that “Orlando is not a hub.” The rest is speculations and holds as much weight as others saying it could be a hub.

Not to mention that saying you wouldn’t pick United over Delta if you lived in Florida is absolutely asinine.

1) United ACTUALLY has a base in Florida.

2) MCO-ATL is a tougher commute than MCO-EWR/LGA

You don’t have to believe that MCO could be a hub in the future, but don’t have perspective pilots pick DL over UA if they live in Florida.

Where do you factor the 4% cut in the schedule??? Thats 720 pilots. More then retirements.

4% of "domestic capacity" not the entire airline. Also most of this is coming from off-peak, lower demand days, so there will still be a need to keep hiring. United is adding international since we are adding 787s without retiring any widebody planes. 7 more 787s still to be delivered by the end of 2025 on top of the 6 we have already received since November.

We will still have to hire/train to replace retirements. I understand you are trying to "bistromath" this, but we will almost certainly be hiring/training after the summer because of training backfills from retirements.

Kirby keeps saying he wants to keep hiring and taking deliveries, so maybe we are intentionally overstaffing in anticipation of other airlines pulling back?

He did mention on his CNBC interview that they were looking at paring back flights like low-performing redeye flights that usually barely break even during good times.

On the earnings call with analysts this morning they clarified and said we are reducing "narrowbody capacity by 2% in the coming months". They further clarified that its mostly domestic Redeye flying being reduced.

4% percent of the capacity…. Doesn’t equal a 4 percent reduction in pilot staffing…. It will take a larger capacity cut to trigger a 4 percent pilot staffing reduction.