Airbus Order Theory
 

So the announcement that new hire classes won't start again until July 23rd further fuels the Airbus order rumor theory. This is why.

Kirby is not getting his 350 Max 10 planes, so he's obvoiusly looking elsewhere for a replacement. Obviously the only other comparable plane is the A-321 NEO or XLR.

Airbus said they are trying to get airlines with A-321 orders to defer those orders so they can use them for an airline that needs a large order of A-321s. There is no reason that Airbus would care UNLESS that airline is also ordering a bunch of WB planes, which Airbus does not have a full order book on. Airbus could start delivering new A-350s as soon as 2026 because A-350 production is only full for the next 18 or so months. Spirit and JetBlue have deferred about 150 A-320s and those delivery slots start in September of this year.

What makes this rumor even more interesting is that it was leaked that United would announce the Airbus order at the Farnborough airshow and that the pause in hiring was because they want to make sure that new hires are being trained into the proper plane (Airbus vs 737). Currently almost all the new hires have been hired into the 737.

The date was just released for when new hire classes would start. July 23rd.

Why is this "interesting"? The Farnborough Airshow is July 22nd to July 26th.

You lost me at July 23rd. Flying Together says July 2nd. Unless you know of something more official?

Airbus might want to reclaim slots to simply try and get back on their contractual delivery schedules. They are way behind and paying penalties. On the widebody side you can get A330-900's next week but it's not proving to be a great airframe.

I think it's a good theory. The half wingers FB group has confirmed 23JUL is the next class date.

The company can’t just offer those theoretical positions to new hires. They have to be offered to all the active pilots via a vacancy bid, then any unfilled positions can go to new hires.

I wish it were true. But I doubt it.

Same thought for new hires, and definitively overstaffed if you look at average
lines for the summer. Our Airbus from lessor isn’t till 2026 (as I recalled, 35?)and that’s not affecting hiring. Will have to wait and see!

this guy has to be right, airbus fo will go more senior than any other seat at the company and there won't be any left.

That's not what Airbus told the press. They said it was to win over a key customer and this all happened during the MAX grounding in January.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...e-verthp-feeds

The company could just have a vacancy bid in early July and offer any slots that are unfilled to the July 23 and 30 classes. Vacancy bids should start to be larger by then since they will want to start filling September and beyond training. They don't even need to offer that many Airbus FO slots, since people leaving the seat for other planes will create enough vacancies for new hires.

The July 2023 vacancy bid had over 100 unfilled Airbus FO slots, and they only offered 40 on the vacancy. They would certiainly need to hire into other seats as well, so 100 unfilleds could last until the next vacancy easily.

To add fuel to this rumor, an unidentified customer ordered 51 A321 NEOs in mid April.