We will see as as some 767/777s get parked

Yeah but…

in the time it takes to get the remaining 136 aircraft AND the 767s and 777s get parked (and who knows how long that will be) United will ALSO still be retiring ~55 pilots a month. That alone is some non trivial movement.

I can’t see any of those getting parked, or even the newer LCAL 757’s. Still a lot of life left in those birds (especially the LCAL 777’s), and a paid off airplane can be wildly profitable even if its hourly operating cost is higher than the latest and greatest. Just look at Delta, it’s almost their identity . Look how long they held on to their MD-80’s.

The published fleet plan shows no 767s or 777s parked by the end of the year. We do have some 777s awaiting maintenance but those planes are all coming back.

We won't know about the 2027 fleet plan until Jan as it gets published with the annual earnings for the previous year.

Also the plan shows no 757s getting parked, but they did say some of them might get parked in 2027 on a 1 for 2 (1 parked for 2 delivered) with the XLR. They expect to keep the 757-300s until 2035 as the CASM is the lowest of any plane we have.

Anything can change, but they've been very clear about the plan and "taking advantage of opportunities" and you can't do that if you park too many planes.

That assumed something like $60/barrel oil and a growing economy.

Give it about a month but I think you’ll see some more concrete capacity reductions based on the price of jet fuel and the potential shortage of it. I would bet United starts parking the 757-200 and 767-300 sooner than planned.

Junior 756 CA has just under 4 years on property

An exact quote from Kirby you can find online:

“To be clear, nothing changes about our longer-term plans for aircraft deliveries or total capacity for 2027 and beyond, but there’s no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can’t absorb these fuel costs.”

He said they will temporarily reduce some flying with lower utilization but the words "nothing changes about our longer-terms planes for deliveries/capacity" means to me that permanently parking planes to a temporary increase in fuel prices isn't something he's going to do.

Don't take my word for it. He said it publicly.

Weird that just this past fall we had people saying that no post-pandemic hires would see NB CA again for "5-10 years" and here we are with 4 year 756 CA.

Deliveries ramping up and retirements ramping up over the next 3 years. Should be fun to watch.

Weird how we somehow have "NBCA reductions" but at the same time they are awarding both 737 and Airbus CA in multiple bases on this bid that were unfilled. And to pilots with less than 4 years on property.

Thos 757s/767s/777s aren’t going to fly forever…. Some of those 787s will be growth in gauge and replacements with 756 flying shrink. Those 756 senior daddies and mommas will eventually retire or displace over to a different WB seat when that time comes…