Hired beginning of Aug 99. I received a call from Andy for a job at CAL. What struck me funny was a comment he made. Paraphased here. "You are a new hire at CAL. However, when UAL calls, you will be placed in your rightful seniority order." My rightful seniority order at UAL coming off a second furlough is in essance a "NEW HIRE." I'm at the bottom of the UAL list, I'm at the bottom of the CAL list. CAL is hiring. So, I crunched some numbers. Feel free to throw spears. It will take until 2019 to get every UAL furlough back on property based solely of age 65 retirements. In 2020, UAL/CAL reach parity. This may raise more questions than answers. What if CAL continues to hire? What is the impact of a hiring fence?

I deferred due to military service. I want to see the UAL/CAL issued settled before deciding to return.

year UAL retirements
2011 ?
2012 11
2013 222
2014 220
2015 197
2016 165
2017 219
2018 234
2019 231
2020 258
2021 319
2022 289
2023 364
2024 337
2025 443

CAL Retirement
2011 ?
2012 7
2013 183
2014 198
2015 186
2016 205
2017 210
2018 180
2019 194
2020 169
2021 188
2022 180
2023 187
2024 154
2025 156

Based on CAL hiring 200 F/Os. 75 in 2011 and 125 in 2012.

year UAL recall/hire CAL recall/hire
2011 0 75
2012 11 207
2013 233 390
2014 453 588
2015 650 774
2016 815 979
2017 1034 1189
2018 1268 1369
2019 1499 1563
2020 1757 1732

 

I think we are going to be stapled to the bottom of any seniority list too. Career expectation, there is none?

If CAL and/or UAL get rid of the older B737s or A319/320s then there could be more furloughs?

By the time I'm off the bottom 20% at the new company I'd be a Capt at any other normal company, so why go back?

Ted sent out an email yesterday about the bypass ratio, was 4 to 1 now 9 to 1. I haven't had the call yet but expecting one and I'll be by passing too.

The question is if CAL has to hire off the street will they be junior to everyone or end up with 'time on property', which could be huge for some on their first or second furlough? Also who will want to work for a company that has furloughed after some were only on the line a few weeks, have done the double furlough and is realistically could be looking at a triple furlough?

The last time old UAL hired they didn't get the rush of applications they were expecting. If other airlines are also hiring new UAL will be way down the list. Especially with no new contract in place?

Any comments?

 

did I have an interview anywhere else?

 

Would have retired #4 at UAL. Now wont hit the 50% mark on the combined list until 2026....