Sure agree with you there Lee about hiring professionals but seems like it has been talked and pushed for years with no results.

I just read LCAL's scope language. LCAL's scope doesn't limit block hours; it only addresses airframe ratios. And it allows the airframe ratio of regional/mainline to exceed 1:1. The only portion of LCAL's scope that is an improvement from LUAL's is the 50 seat limitation. From my read, it will be very easy for UCH to move 50 seat regional contracts from the LUAL to the LCAL umbrella.

Lee, I always enjoy reading your insights.

I'll respectfully rebut your view of how current management looks at training costs.
The current UCH management is a different animal than the management under Tilton. UCH is almost exclusively CAL management and they are much more cost conscious than UAL management was. To that end, I think that they will exercise a training solution between the two subsidiaries that minimizes training costs.
The way to minimize training costs is to:
1) hold the LUAL pilot pool static; no furloughs and no recalls. They're currently overmanned on the LUAL side of the house so they don't even need to decrease block hours once age 65 retirements start to kick in.
2) keep all hiring/furloughing restricted to the LCAL side. (LCAL furlough protections only apply to those on property on the date of the merger). With mandatory age 65 retirements starting this fall, I don't think that furloughs are likely but it is an available option for them. Since all new aircraft are going to the LCAL subsidiary, it only makes sense to run all newhire training at the LCAL subsidiary.

When we were operating under C2K, UAL was hemmoraghing. UCH is currently printing money and has to date found a workable solution to maximize profits with two separate subsidiaries.
UCH will eventually sign a JCBA but only when it makes financial sense to do so. They're not going to lock themselves into a contract that will bankrupt the company. At this point, I don't see a JCBA any time soon but I also don't see UCH operating as two companies indefinitely.

Andy,

You consistantly say that the UAL side is significantly (100's) overmanned. I just read the Dec. SSC report, which projects manning for July 2012, and it shows only 11 extra bodies, mostly in the widebody area and many short in the bus seats. Btw, e-mailed Todd Coomans yesterday and he mentioned letters to go out next week to guys into the 6/4/2000 class, so your numbers were pretty accurate.

DM

Make sure you read the merger section as well. There are limitations in for number of express airframe. 50 seats limitation and hub flying is the restriction and the company has wanted relief for some while. As you know block hour ratios without seating limitations, is thef 70 seat story at UA. Our SCOPE clause as well as UA is still in-place until a JCBA but we know the company will attempt to mauever....

A contract that will bankrupt the company? That's one of their talking points to sound tough and scare the other employees. I'm sorry, Co-Workers. How disingenuous of me. I'm surprised you didn't whip out the "contract has to be fair" spewage.

Do you really buy into this garbage Andy?

Yes. There is an upper limit that the company can afford to pay and remain a competitive, viable business.

Sure there is....and its a lot higher than the current payscale!

DO NOT sell your skill set short....as it appears you have fallen!

Point is, no one knows that limit...and that approach has been used to keep expectations low and pit employee groups. We can't fall for that crap. Whenever fuel prices increase, take a look at the employee news....however when it reduces, you hear nothing. That's a strategy. One other point, now that the new UA owns 25% of the market and Delta around 23%, we have effectively bought up capacity and pricing power....we just need to capitalize on where and how (through the JCBA) to get back to industry leading...

With this merger, the new UA owns 7 of the 10 largest hubs in the US (EWR, IAD, ORD, IAH, SFO, Den, LAX) and we own Europe and Asia. If we can't make money, it's not a pilot issue. Psy Ops want work.....Pay US!

I have not stated what I consider the upper limit to be. I haven't even bothered to crunch the numbers and compute one so I don't have a specific payscale in mind. Why do you guys jump to the conclusion that a) I have an upper payscale in mind, and b) that it's too low?