As an outside observer, I needed to comment on a notion that appears to take rise in this particular thread and surfaces on other threads with regularity.

I don't think anybody is selling their "skillset" short. I see a great deal of pride and accomplishment in one's "skillset" in the piloting profession. However, one's "skillset" pride is not going to determine the value of a labor contract for that particular skillset..

The market determines everything...pilot "wants" will have minimal to do with contract settlement unless "wants" correlate with the existing labor market.

In an industry such as US air transportation (deregulated for nearly 35 years), two things and two things only will determine where a labor contract settles...craft and class positions at direct competition and the economy.

Sorry guys, the market determines everything. Labor is certainly at the table, but settlement is determined by competitive position and the economy. The AMR bankruptcy did not help any ongoing negotiations and "wants" are unlikely to be a factor unless...they coincide with the market.

Attny, that is not completely true here... The RLA restricts market forces from timely corrections when it comes to the side of airline labor. Contracts are subject to pressure, and the RLA often greatly delays or even prevents pressure that would be applied. Lower some of the barriers to self help, and you will see true market "forces" at work.

SP

As far as scope, watch very carefully what happens with APA, AMR and The Judge. Better hope the 90 seater doesn't go to the regional side. This has to be on the radar at UCAL mgmt and is waiting to see what happens.

You are correct about scope, however; many would contend that "the genie's out of the bottle", in terms of RJs on UAL property...at least that's what some on the UAL property believe, I'm not one of them.

Expect that the senior "U" pilots won't raise a digit to preclude 70-95 seat growth, as they don't perceive it will directly impact their career expectations...or so they think. They will be, for the most part, unwilling to expend the negotiating capital required - especially when they have a nice retro and/or significant pay increases at stake.

Expect UCH to continue to shrink the relevance of the "adversarial" UAL pilots, whilst growing the influence of the CAL-side...the leadership seems to be much more amenable to the wants/needs/desires of the management toads. JP demonstrated as such in no uncertain terms.



Cheers,
Horhay

SCOPE and beyond.....
You can be darn certain, the entire enchilada (APA's Pre-BK CBA) was a huge player/varibale in the JNC's hand on several levels prior to AMR's Nov 2011 filing....Yes, the SCOPE provisions having been one of them.

Now that AMR's Horton has embarked on a proclaimed/agressive 15 month restructuring plan, this serves as just another stall tactic for the the company (UHC) to drag this present neg process well into 2014 and beyond. More welcomed 'foot dragging' from mgt so as to buying time in which to clean the table so they can reset the place-mats in which to bargin with the JNC as to have a 'post BK' player in their (mgts) cards......sweet.

Hope I'm wrong.

Sorry for the delayed response. I had a full response ready to send and prior to sending, I had a fat finger that wiped it out.
Going through the first few pages of the Dec SSC report, there is a lot of information indicating that LUAL is overmanned.
Page 2.
Returning long term leaves. 36 between 31 Dec and 31 May 2012.
Short term leaves. LUAL continues to offer leaves up to 90 days. A few 777 FO leaves were denied due to manning. However, look at the leaves still in effect:
Nov-Jan 77
Dec-Feb 75
Jan-Mar 77
That’s 229 pilots on short term leave of absence.
Page 3.
Vacation Liquidation. “The company continues to liquidate additional vacation this fall/winter, especially in the narrowbody fleets due to the decrease in winter block hours. If desired, pilots should bid for 30- and 60-day vacations.”
The company prefers to buy back vacation time because it allows them to decrease the number of personnel. Liquidating vacation time rather than buying it back is another sign that LUAL is overmanned.


I can’t remember where I got the information but a DCA based 75/767 pilot told me that the bottom half of the DCA 75/767 lines were built to min hour guarantee in January. That is the fleet where I’d expect surpluses, since LUAL parked 3 757s this last fall.
I don’t have access to LUAL pilots’ line information so I can’t tell whether or not the bottom portion of lineholders are getting min guarantee or max time. If a large number of bottom lineholders are getting min guarantee and reserves aren’t being fully utilized, there’s a lot of slack in the system.

Here’s one way to see how current manning stands. Take total hours flown from page 14 of the SSC … 115,185:38.
Take the total number of line pilots from page 19 … 5402.
Multiply hours by 2: 230,371:16.
Divide by 5402.
Average line pilot flew: 42:39.
There are a few things wrong with that calculation – vacation time, some flights require augmentation, PC/PTs, etc. Even so, if you apply that formula to December 2010’s SSC report (apples to apples comparison), you’d get average line pilot flew: 45:06.

Andy,

Everything you said is correct, but, UAL manning is based on the HEAVY flying summer months, during the slow months we are fat. UAL is NOT ALLOWING extensions for long term LOA's or anything else that will cut into the manning numbers. We are starting to see unfilled bids and the large shortage in JFK of 756 f/o's and systemwide 320 Capt/f/o's is going to require some fixing. With retirements looming something will need to be done relatively soon and recalling to UAL will hurt the CAL manning so I don't expect anything prior to the end of the summer, but after the summer I think things might change rapidly.

True, all airlines fly more block hours in the summertime. That's why I did an apples to apples comparison of crewmember utilization rates (dec 2010 vs Dec 2011). The raw numbers show a 2 1/2 block hour flying decrease per pilot. Was United short staffed last summer? There weren't a significant number of JRM/SRM events last summer compared to historical norms ... I pulled up the oldest SSC report, Feb 2009, and it showed every month in 2007 in excess of 100 JRM/SRM events.
We'll see what happens but from looking purely at the numbers, I'm not seeing anything close to a pilot shortage at LUAL.

Spoken like a true management shill. FUPM

Would have to agree with you regarding the "Mgt-Shill" rehetoric.

Right outta the gate on "Post Numero Uno" none-the-less......Interesting.

"Attny"???....Is that you "Counselor Jeffery"???