What happens when both sides recall?
 

I was going to post this in the profit sharing thread but I wanted to avoid that show.

In Dec 2012 people will start retiring again. The way the T&PA is set up CAL hires UAL furloughees.

So what happens when UAL recalls? They will take furloughed UAL pilots from CAL, who will then need to hire more from the furlough pool of UAL. Once UAL recalls more, those pilots will move over to UAL which will start the cycle anew and create a lot of training cycles.

Seems like a lot of wasted money and I'm sure that thought isn't lost on management.

Please spare me the "Pierce will just cut another side deal, as is the CAL way!!!" But I see this as a pressing reason why we may see a contract in the next 6-8 months, giving our pilot groups time to create a SLI.

Thoughts?

My guess is that L-UAL will shrink just enough to avoid recalls caused by retirements. It would not surprise me if they can keep this up for a couple years. But you are right, if both sides were recalling at the same time, it would be a major CF.

I think you are spot on. CAL is hiring because of airplane growth and future attrition. UA will be hiring because of attrition ( to my knowledge) no new aircraft in the que to be flown by L-UAL until a JCBA and ISL. Thats at least a year away or longer (JCBA and ISL), so you are right that UAL folks may get recalled to UA before The JCBA and ISL is complete and the training/retraininng cost would be enormous. That's a motivator to get the JCBA concluded and a reason the company ask for an expedited ISL process. Think timing is another motivator/leverage, as Delta is our competition and have their merger mostly behind them

I agree but think that they could keep shrinking LUAL for longer than two years. LUAL's currently overmanned + management would like to retire more LUAL 757s.
The only fly in the ointment that I see to significantly shrinking LUAL is the mainline/regional block hour ratios. Perhaps UCH management would shift 50 seat flying from LUAL to LCAL? I don't know how the regional flying ratios come into play now that everything's one operating certificate.

What's the price of tea in China?

Regionals....just say no on SCOPE relaxation on the JCBA. Single operating certificate has nothing to do, with current contracts. L-CAL is 50 seat jets only and we all know the results of 70 seaters on L-UAL. JCBA is the only opportunity to reduce past and present outsourcing. 50 seaters havent made money for quite sometime, old and a bad product and suspect they will be reduced. SW, JB make money keeping flying in-house and we need to do the same. Have heard the company wants larger jets for higher yields and 1st class etc...if we want recalls get 90+ seaters on the new UAL seniority list...SCOPE is the key

I was referring to section 1-C-1-d of C2003:

1-C-1-d

scheduled block hours of Company Flying.

Applies only to L-UAL and hence almost 50 percent of domestic being flown hy regionals and you being furloughed..Does not apply to CAL..our SCOPE language is better. Bottomline, flying needs to be brought back in house and the JCBA is the mechanism...or else history will repeat itself.

There needs to be a cap on the Q-400s too!!!!

Yes, you are approaching this from a one sided sight picture. Mgmt looks at training costs as sunk costs.

Any advantage they can achieve, regardless of the training scenario you provide which could occur, but delays or otherwise deminishes the final JCBA is a plus in thier column.

Expand your sight picture and realize that whatever mgmt does, they do for a reason.

Do you know the number of pilots getting paid full pay for an extended period when UAL parked the 727 and 200 guppy. Waste of money, sure. Helping to push them to Chap 11....priceless.

Learn to look from a different perspective. While I wish it wasn't true, ALPA has always been reactionary and never visionary with regards to mgmts actions.

They look at the "cost" you describe as a potential gain when you agree to something less come contract time. A net gain that runs 5 years probably plus the standard RLA 2 years, or greater negotiation. They won many times over. But "we" showed them, right?

I warned you all that perceived leverage regarding the JCBA was not there and the mgmt will be more than ready to accept the divided airline until the combination met their terms. You all just don't listen.

I hope the best but have history and reality to temper that hope. Thusfar, mgmt has been 2 steps ahead in this process. Time to hire real professionals, not ALPA endorsed professionals, to bring this to culmination.

My 2 cents.

Frats,
Lee