B787 Delivery Schedule.
09-04-2013 | 08:40 AM
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From: UAL retired
B787 Delivery Schedule.
So obviously this is one of the biggest question marks in the ISL real world applications, and I'd be interested in uncovering the "facts" as we know them today. Here's my list so far:
The orders from Boeings website:
Fact:
1) Boeing delivered 7 B787s in 2013 to United
2) United is still expecting 5 more B787-8s.
3) Boeing is planning on starting to build 10+ a month of the B787-9 in late 2014.
4) United needs delivery of 18 planes to bring the fence down.
Logical analysis:
Will United receive 6 B787s a year for the next 3 years? My guess is yes it will so I predict the fence will come down in 2016.
Just for the record here's my ISL prediction. . . .
Turns out the arbs went with a combination ratio/longevity and I ended up 6551 which is towards the longevity end of my estimate but not total DOH.
The orders from Boeings website:
Fact:
1) Boeing delivered 7 B787s in 2013 to United
2) United is still expecting 5 more B787-8s.
3) Boeing is planning on starting to build 10+ a month of the B787-9 in late 2014.
4) United needs delivery of 18 planes to bring the fence down.
Logical analysis:
Will United receive 6 B787s a year for the next 3 years? My guess is yes it will so I predict the fence will come down in 2016.
Just for the record here's my ISL prediction. . . .
This is what happens when you're stuck in bed with a torn ligament . . .
. . . . (edit) I want to change my own SWAG.
So any CAL pilots like to gamble? I'll lay 2:1 odds that based on 7563 UAL pilots and 4589 CAL pilots making a list of 12154 . . . .
I will be between 6200 and 7100. This puts me next to a 02/05/1996 hire and I am a 04/01/1996.
WB-CAP UAL(1557)/CAL(741) list numbers 0 to 2298
NB-CAP UAL(997)/CAL(1220) list numbers 2299 to 4515
WB-FO UAL(2384)/CAL(1250) list numbers 4516 to 8149
NB-FO UAL(2625)/CAL(1378) list numbers 8150 to 12154
if it gets sorted DOH I'm 6281 and if it gets sorted relative seniority I get 7087
Status and category - check
Longevity -check
Career Expectations - we agree to disagree. . .
. . . . (edit) I want to change my own SWAG.
So any CAL pilots like to gamble? I'll lay 2:1 odds that based on 7563 UAL pilots and 4589 CAL pilots making a list of 12154 . . . .
I will be between 6200 and 7100. This puts me next to a 02/05/1996 hire and I am a 04/01/1996.
WB-CAP UAL(1557)/CAL(741) list numbers 0 to 2298
NB-CAP UAL(997)/CAL(1220) list numbers 2299 to 4515
WB-FO UAL(2384)/CAL(1250) list numbers 4516 to 8149
NB-FO UAL(2625)/CAL(1378) list numbers 8150 to 12154
if it gets sorted DOH I'm 6281 and if it gets sorted relative seniority I get 7087
Status and category - check
Longevity -check
Career Expectations - we agree to disagree. . .
Turns out the arbs went with a combination ratio/longevity and I ended up 6551 which is towards the longevity end of my estimate but not total DOH.
Last edited by Sunvox; 09-04-2013 at 09:04 AM.
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