Let's hope. It would make sense. At one time the LAX domicile had twice as many pilots based there as now.

 

I don't think your speculations are unreasonable I just wanted to make sure that everybody remembers that there are several possible scenarios, one of which is a significant downsizing of the 777 in LA.

I was bumped from the 747 in LA and came to the 777 2 years ago when they changed LAX-NRT-BKK to the 777. I still have friends on the 747 and they're trying to decide whether to change to the 777, upgrade to captain or go to the 747 in SFO. I tell them not to just assume that IAH-HNL and LHR-IAD are sticking around because they likely won't be. If those routes go back to the bases that used to fly them and LA is left with only LHR and SYD, we'll only need the following staffing:

LHR 8 lines - 13 or 14 captains and 24 f/o's
SYD 10 lines - 16 or 17 captains 45 f/o's

That's a total of 30 captains and about 70 f/o's

Do you have any idea what the staffing is right now?

747 20 captains 51 f/o's
777 34 captains 85 f/o's

If, come April, we're down to only LAX-LHR and LAX-SYD, we will have a surplus of 24 captains and 66 f/o's. That's a huge surplus and they aren't going to just sit there and let that exist and not do something about it.

You're right that some guys will leave LAX and some guys will leave the 777/747 fleets altogether, but even with that I think it's setting up for a big ass surplus. I'm about 20 out of 34 captains and all of those 747 captains are senior to me (I was 2nd from the bottom on the 747) so I might get bumped out of LA myself.

But even if I'm wrong about there being bumps in the near future, the possibility of new vacancy bids in the LA 777 is about as likely as Jeff Smisek all of a sudden becoming a competent airline CEO. There's absolutely NO WAY it's gonna happen.

 

One way to reduce West Coast bumps would be to drop the fences:-)

Yea that'll happen.

Dogg

 

Yep, we really stepped on our cranks with the fence thing. The 787 will be spewing off hundreds of vacancies over the next 2 years vs almost NONE on the 74. Oh well.

 

Sure, but when the fence comes down it will be nice opportunity to step into some nice seniority since those positions are going well out-of-seniority due to the fences.

 

That's true.

 

PV;
Look at the large base openings, closings, vacancies, and displacements in the last 18 months alone. The truly scary thing is that these were on stagnant fleets. If they can't manage stagnation without catastrophic financial mistakes, how in the world would anyone surmise that they will have the ability to manage the massive downsizing of one fleet, and the growth of another?

The chance of them getting it right is less than zero.

For insight into the possibilities, I would recommend paying attention to UAL during the next week as they try to accomplish combined CMS and FAR 117 simultaneously. Grab some popcorn and your favorite beverage, sit back, and get ready for some serious entertainment.

 

The latest snapshot shows all the 747 Captains either going to SFO to stay on the 747 or 777 Captain in LAX. The same for almost all of the FOs (747 in SFO or 777 in LAX)

There are only 6 FO's going to guppy Captain. 3 in LAX, 1 DEN, 1 IAH, 1 GUM. They will all be senior lineholders as they range from 1,800 - 5,000 in seniority.

So the prediction that they would be "tripping all over themselves" to fly the guppy isn't true. 90+% of them are staying on the big aircraft.

My prediction was 6 so let's see if that number holds up. So far its dead on.

 

Truly fascinating to follow hour by hour. Better then the bowl games. Will pilot64's mortal lock of 6 hold up?!? Stay tuned to APC.

 

Well someone else predicted 20 because guys were "falling all over themselves" to fly the guppy, despite ZERO pilots on the SEA displacement jumping to the guppy and 6 of 90 pilots on this displacement.

So make fun of me, but my prediction for the displacement so far is very accurate.