The 12/26 snapshot now has 3 going to guppy Captains in LA and 1 in DEN. The rest are going mostly to LA 777 FO which is going to have another bump because that is a small base that can't handle 30 new FOs.

For the most part they are avoiding the guppy and going to the 747 in SFO or 777 in LAX.

I think my prediction of 6 going to guppy Captain is going to be really close. We are at 4 with about half the FOs preferencing.

 

Actually the LA777 base can handle it. You forget that the 777 is taking over the SDY route causing new vacancies in that plane. There's almost 20 guys leaving LA altogether, creating more vacancies in the hub. No secondary bumps at all. And with many 73CA going to 787CA those handful of guys going to the 73 will be easily absorbed.

 

But didn't Sparky take over the LAX-PVG flights as well as another one? I thought the 777 was net down a flight even after picking up the LAX-SYD.

 

PVG and NRT are both on the 787 now. If I am not mistaken the only 777 intl run is LHR and one flight to HNL.

I still don't get how they came to the conclusion that taking a -400 off the SYD run which goes out full or weight restricted 90% of the year will be better off with a 777. Any bets on when they reopen the 747 LAX base?

 

Probably before pilots start wearing hats again.

 

I don't think the 74 will be back in LA, sucks but I don't see it. The LA777 also does Houston Hawaii flying as well. The addition of SDY is an overall plus for the 777. And this is one reason why future displacements/bumps will be limited at best. They can adjust or keep staffing by adjusting hub flying. The tsunami of displacements as some have predicted won't happen. We've already seen senior 76ca willing to taking 73ca vacancies, that could cause additional secondary vacancies in those positions. There's a long conga line of guys waiting to go to Houston for training. I see a slow steady transition from 76 to the 73, with little to no displacements. DEN might be a unique situation depending on what the company does. But the many retirements coming in the next few years will help smooth things out for sure.

 

You should stop posting like you know for sure what's going to happen when you can't possibly know that.

Right now LA 777 is doing LAX-HNL-IAH-HNL-LAX. The only reason we're doing the IAH turn is because CAL pilots can't fly UA metal. When they can fly UA metal, they'll almost certainly start flying that route again (like they did for years).

LA is also doing LAX-LHR-IAD-LHR-LAX. We never did the IAD turn before we lost PVG and NRT so there's no reason to act so certain that it's ours forever.

Even the LAX-HNL is brand new to us and is mainly seasonal and to eliminate the deadhead to cover the IAH-HNL flying according to our SSC guy. When the IAH-HNL flying goes back to IAH, the LAX-HNL thing might also go away.

What you don't seem to want to consider is the possibility that when it all shakes out, we might be left with ONLY LAX-SYD and LAX-LHR. In that case, there would be a sizable bump out of the LAX 777.

I don't know any more than you do but you should stop "telling" people what's going to happen when you can't possibly know what's going to happen. I doubt even the route planners know what's going to happen.

There are people dumb enough to make important decisions based on what they read from unverified sources on the internet so you should be careful what you say IMO.

 

I think Nopac is right here. When the company looks at utilization, I think they completely disregard where pilots are based. I think that's the variable or plug figure at the end that just ends up driving staffing.

So the company doesn't say "We have all these 777 FOs in LAX lets find some flying for them." They just pick routes, where its most efficient to start and end trips, then make the manpower match that later.

 

Spot on. The issue is that marketing doesn't consult or asks manpower until a decision has been made. Oh and marketing thinks they know it all.

 

I don't think I ever said this is for sure going to happen. We all know this industry can turn on a dime. Just my prediction based on past practices of corporate america. Paid moves and massive training cycles cost big time, they'll avoid any costs that don't have a profit attached to it. As far as LA777 bumps, I don't see it. The base is already small as is, I'm more in the camp of future vacancies. The LA base seems to be a very underutilized hub in such a big market. While I think the majority of west coast growth will be in SFO, LA might get some as well. We'll see