I've heard Bumpapalooza starts in July/August. It will be an extravaganza. Ozzy is headlining. :D

DUDE! I will see you in the mosh pit!!

Not sure it will be as bad as you think. If it goes to 200 737 guys that is about 5700 seniority. A320 CA is at 6872 now. The base is projected to grow as well. If 6872 remains the bottom guy then about 90 of the displaced pilots could slide into the A320 IAH CA slot. That leaves about 110 displaced. All of them can hold SFO, ORD, EWR 737 Capt. All but 11 can hold LAX Capt. All growing bases except EWR. All but 28 can hold EWR 75/76 Capt. Many will chase the left seat. All of them can hold 777 f/o in IAH. I would expect many to bid 787 but I doubt it will cause 787 F/O displacements in SFO.

Perhaps but what will the guys bumped off the bus or 737 West Coast bid? Bottom line, low system overall seniority on a WB is bad spot when displacements are occurring.

The Company will need to replace every single CA that downgrades to FO. Once this IAH bump is finalized there will be a large CA bid to replace them. The new CAs will more than likely come out of the senior wide body FO ranks on the west coast. They are displacing the IAH pilots to better staff the SFO/LAX bases, so that is where the new upgrades are going to go. If I were running the show I'd run the wide body seats fat, one large upgrade to the west coast will take care of the overstaffing problem.

Also we have not seen a wide body retirement bid yet. That usually happens in the fall. I haven't seen a 777 CA bid in a long time.

The only seats I can see secondary's off of is IAH 320 if every pilot elects that mission, and the 756/76t if more than 50ish take that mission. All other bases will most likely be safe.

Not sure there will be anyone displaced off the west coast 737 or the IAH 320. Both are predicted to grow. It is really only 200 guys out of 12000 in an airline that is growing. We will find out this fall.

Thought we had 777 and 787 captain bids in feb.

I certainly hope you are right, but history has shown this manpower group can't manage a paper bag.

I think Herve may be surprisingly competent.

Good god, I hope so. If you want to balance manpower, you have to be bold. Not wussyfoot like Papaleo. If people don't bump where you want....secondary and tertiary their arses. Giter done!

I stand corrected 15-07 had 35 777 CA bids. That barely covers the retirements were going to have on that fleet between now and SEP 1st.

Any -400 Captains retiring?

I heard between now and the end of 2016, 37 400 Captains to retire. But remember, United is going to park 400's and with the 777 swap for the 787, they could be planning on reducing airframes concurrently with retirements.

It was a rhetorical question. Yes they might bleed the fleet staffing via aircraft reductions, but you'd think one of the most senior seats would generate some vacancies.

Yes, fortunately, I think, we have new people running manpower instead of the guys that closed ORD 400 base.

I have flown with too many that pulled it off. I went threw lCAL new hire class 2 years ago with a couple, and met a few others during the same time. I just did my PC with another. None of them flew a United airplane since before 9/11.

IIRC, there was a 5 year cumulative limit on mil lv in C2K, which would be compliant with Federal law. Our current 12-D-1 is a bit more generous, allowing up to 6 years MLOA after all furloughed pilots were offered recall.

It's possible, but of all of my MLOA buddies (and I know quite a few), I don't know any who were on extended MLOA prior to 9/11. Under C2K, staying on extended military orders was a pretty big pay hit past year 2.

Oh Lordy, does that mean the 400 reliability is going to decrease in ORD?

Possibly? Look into my crystal ball....:D

It wouldn't surprise me to see a surplus bid for IAH 737 CA, followed by a vacancy bid for IAH 320 CA.

Right. In a perfect world they do the vacancy bid 1st and as it goes more junior, more Guppy Captains can just move over to the Bus and stay in the same status without having to leave the base.

To have guys surplussed 1st then have a vacancy bid after and have it go junior to guys that could have bumped to it is certainly disruptive.

If not cruel.

I don't understand your point. For the guys getting bumped, if their seniority can hold a IAH 320 bid, then they'll get it. If not, they won't. Doesn't matter if the vacancy comes first or not.

If they get bumped there is no freeze, so they are free to bid it.

The reality is, the bottom 50 or so IAH 737 Captains are there as a result of the 14-02 group of bids. They do not have the seniority to hold Captain in IAH once they are bumped.

There is no way they will be disadvantaged by any sort of IAH 320 CAP bid. If they can hold it, they will get it.

There is going to be at least a 50 CA bid on the IAH bus. Look at the last min max chart. If the CA displacement bid is before the vacancy bid we go from conspiracy theories to the facts don't lie. Hope it doesn't play out that way.

25 of the bottom 50 IAH 737 Capt. Are from 13-08.

If they have the seniority then they'll be protected. It is a seniority issue and the sooner we let the system right itself, the better off we'll be.

I'm just correcting a false statement. I agree with the first part of your quote, and if this is truly about rebalancing the bases then so be it. If it is about righting the system then I do not agree we will be better off, as that is a flush bid and was prohibited in the TPA.

Again....I'm not understanding the point here.

It's based on their seniority no matter when the vacancy is issued. If they are too junior to hold a captain vacancy, then what is the issue? If they can hold it they can bid it whether the vacancy comes before or after.

Is there some sort of conspiracy theory? Please explain.

Ok, point taken. Better way to say it.....the bottom 50 or so 737 Captains in IAH can't hold 320 Captain in Houston based on recent bidding behavior.

It's all related to their seniority. I'm not sure you guys fully understand the displacement process.

To be brief, if their seniority can hold it, they WILL get the bid they seek. No ifs ands or buts. If it can't, then they won't.

It makes NO difference on when any sort of vacancy is released in relation to when a displacement is released. NONE!! NADA!!

I think I have a pretty good grasp of it. I agree the timing matters little. In fact it may be better to have it the displacement first and then the vacancy...less chance of a secondary off the Airbus.

It is about rebalancing the bases and not a flush. The company wants to move pilots to where the flying is moving. This is out of the control of the pilots but the Houston LEC projects that the flying MAY return. Ben's answer is to give IAH displaced pilots "super seniority" to cover all 737 Captain vacancies no matter how they occur. This would cover retirements, vacancies created by equipment move ups and not just the return of 737 flying to IAH. There is a strong possibility that this flying will be shifted to the 320 anyway. The "super seniority" would violate the seniority of ALL UNITED PILOTS.

Ok, let me explain what the other guys was trying to explain. Yes it does make a difference. It depends on if you want to stay in the base.

Vacancy bid happens first, one would presume the 737 guys see the bump coming, and no one bids the 320 vacancy. Therefore, other guys more junior will get bids into the IAH 320 base. If they are more junior, then more guys off the guppy will be able to use bumps into that category. Does it make a difference, maybe not in the long run, except for freezes.

This won't prevent possible secondary bumps, but my guess is that manpower has already planned some of that in their forecast. And, if the 320 is growing that fast, in addition to used 319's purchased, then it is possible there would be no secondary bumps at all.

Sorry if I am presuming the obvious. It will have the effect of some leveling of past out of seniority bids.

Well....that assumes A LOT about how any 320 bid would go. We've had a few recently and I don't see the Bus going super junior all of a sudden. Just not gonna happen.

I know PLENTY of non IAH based pilots that would bid it in a heartbeat.

Possibly, yes it assumes a lot, but it could happen. I just bought lottery tickets too. :) Just trying to illustrate why one before the other has consequences.

Ben is all about violating United pilot's seniority. He is only interested in what's good for Ben.

I have not seen what Ben is asking for. Is it close to the special deal that was given to the 747 ORD pilots when their base was moved to SFO a couple years ago?

Two completely different things.

That was a base closure and the contract doesn't have language for what to do if the company closes a base and reopens it again. So they wrote a LOA that covered all these situations since the contract didn't specially cover it.

Displacements are already covered in the contract. No reason for a carve out. Just let seniority work the way it is supposed to. They can bid back in when there are vacancies.

Base closures are certainly covered in the contract. Look at section 8-E-7-a. It specifically talks about "The equipment type is no longer flying in that base" then section 8-E (displacement rights) shall apply. This is exactly what happen to the ORD 747 pilots.

The reality is the IAH 737 population is far bigger than needed. I suppose it's difficult for some to realize that Houston is no longer the "favorite child" of the airline.

A little background pre-merger.....

Newark domicile was shrunk and Houston grew because EWR was seen as militant and filled with trouble makers. Of course it was sold as favor to the pilots as most wanted to be home in good ol' Texas. I don't recall many in Houston complaining back then with the influx of more staffing.

Eventually this will all balance out, but again the reality is the 737 is way over staffed in Houston. Enjoy the Airbus.

What special deal are you talking about? Grandfather rights are covered in the CBA