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-   -   Guam shutdown (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/90398-guam-shutdown.html)

intrepidcv11 09-04-2015 01:48 PM


Originally Posted by Thor (Post 1964139)
United is also committed to:

Shuttle by United
Worldwide Cargo
Ted/Cal Lite
Business Jets
In-House Maintenance Facilities


....the list goes on. When I saw the video with Jeff talking about how important Guam routes were to the network, I knew it was just a matter of time. With Japan in a 20 year recession and China falling on it's butt, what's the future? Are we really making a ton on EAS and DoD repositioning from Okinawa?

Very little of Guam traffic is related to Okinawa repositoning which is
bottled up in The Senate Arms Service Committee anyways. As for the Island flying, nobody else has the capabilities or resources to do it. There is plenty of money to be made doing the flying to HNL, Japan, HKG, and MNL that Guam currently has. This entire article was generated from 2 displacements, breath people.

Probe 09-04-2015 04:25 PM


Originally Posted by intrepidcv11 (Post 1964183)
Very little of Guam traffic is related to Okinawa repositoning which is
bottled up in The Senate Arms Service Committee anyways. As for the Island flying, nobody else has the capabilities or resources to do it. There is plenty of money to be made doing the flying to HNL, Japan, HKG, and MNL that Guam currently has. This entire article was generated from 2 displacements, breath people.

Guam used to fly dedicated cargo aircraft. Now, because the 737 can't carry enough, Asia Pacific is subcontracted to fly 727 cargo birds for the cargo we can't carry. They are expanding now, including buying 757's, which they already have 2 I think. The 757's are combi's. A 757 combi is the perfect jet for the island flights, including the Hopper.

That is where the island flights will end up. Subbed out to Asia Pacific. Everything else can, and will be done by low cost carriers.

I hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

intrepidcv11 09-04-2015 09:08 PM


Originally Posted by Thor (Post 1964254)
Cut EAS subsidy ( https://www.transportation.gov/sites...ommunities.pdf ) and how sustainable is Guam, really? If there's so much money on the Jap can routes, why did UA dump 3 Japanese city pairs and ICN?

Cutting subsides to the FSM is a bit different from cutting air service to Saranac Lake. If the US military is willing to challenge Chinese man made islands on the 9 Dash Line, can't see why we are in a big hurry to reduce influence in the nearby FSM. If Congress cuts back, the Chinese will gladly step in.

As for Japan, again the weaker yen killed travel from secondary Japanese cities. Throw in a JV with ANA and it doesn't make much sense to run 150 people/week from Hiroshima to Guam on a nonstop. KIX, NGO, and NRT will do just fine 2X/day. As for ICN, Korean low cost carriers (including one owned by Korean Air) made a red eye to Guam a loser before we ever started.


Originally Posted by Thor (Post 1964254)
2 published displacements, yes. But, the max on the min/max for the base has gone from the mid 90s to 65-ish in a year. If it wasn't it for the recent megabids, displacements would tell a much more accurate story of staffing Guam flying.

Perhaps, but even if we go from mid 90's to 65 does that equal we are destined to shut down? Alot of build up out the last couple years was due to utter confusion as to how they would staff the Island Hopper and the Asia flying getting proper work rules. And if you put faith in UAL crew planning to appropriately plan staffing, then you are a much more forgiving soul then me.

intrepidcv11 09-04-2015 09:14 PM


Originally Posted by Probe (Post 1964264)
Guam used to fly dedicated cargo aircraft. Now, because the 737 can't carry enough, Asia Pacific is subcontracted to fly 727 cargo birds for the cargo we can't carry. They are expanding now, including buying 757's, which they already have 2 I think. The 757's are combi's. A 757 combi is the perfect jet for the island flights, including the Hopper.

That is where the island flights will end up. Subbed out to Asia Pacific. Everything else can, and will be done by low cost carriers.

I hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Accoding to google search they have one 757 from Russia coming that is being converted to a freighter. And that place has a rough time keeping three engines on each of their three 727's. Perhaps Air Naurau will get the contract with their robust 737-300 fleet. Doom doom doom...

intrepidcv11 09-04-2015 09:41 PM


Originally Posted by Thor (Post 1964385)
On my 6th CEO and 5th base closure, I'm the last guy to put any faith in UA management. I'd love to fly GUM and I truely hope it grows, but never under estimate UAs ability to screw it up.

I don't disagree. The spontaneous shifting of WB's the last few months should shuck the confidence of the biggest koolaid drinker.

BMEP100 09-06-2015 09:47 AM


Originally Posted by Probe (Post 1964264)
Guam used to fly dedicated cargo aircraft. Now, because the 737 can't carry enough, Asia Pacific is subcontracted to fly 727 cargo birds for the cargo we can't carry. They are expanding now, including buying 757's, which they already have 2 I think. The 757's are combi's. A 757 combi is the perfect jet for the island flights, including the Hopper.

That is where the island flights will end up. Subbed out to Asia Pacific. Everything else can, and will be done by low cost carriers.

I hope it doesn't happen, but I wouldn't bet on it.


I don't recall any dedicated cargo only flights, except perhaps out of Manilla for DHL.

There have been combis, going back as far as DC-6 days.

We did have a 757 base there for a short time, and if we had more of them, it seems like a good place for them now.

The 757 is the only airplane that will do all the missions they have out of GUM without restrictions.
We opened and closed Seoul a couple times because it was too far for a 727 to carry the load it needed., even with the big engines

gettinbumped 09-08-2015 03:35 PM


Originally Posted by Thor (Post 1966916)
Make that my 7th CEO............ :roll eyes:


Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Really? Do you have any insight as to his management "style"? Sincere question. I haven't been able to find much, so I don't know. Willing to wait and see before I assume the worst. Heppner's email was rather upbeat, so.... Time will tell

gettinbumped 09-08-2015 05:05 PM


Originally Posted by Thor (Post 1966980)
What else would a sitting member of the UCH board say? Time will indeed tell.

Well the machinists union just came out and said the same..... that he has a good track record working with the IAM at CSX. We will see.

CousinEddie 09-08-2015 06:22 PM


Originally Posted by gettinbumped (Post 1967032)
Well the machinists union just came out and said the same..... that he has a good track record working with the IAM at CSX. We will see.

Any truth to our IAM Mechs insisting on having a defined benefit pension (ya know, the old traditional type like the one we lost forever) being reinstated as part of their negotiations? If they are drawing a line in the sand on that demand, I can see why the negotiations are going nowhere fast.

As for the F/As, from talking to them it seems as though they can't even come close to agreeing with each other, let alone the Company.

gettinbumped 09-08-2015 06:36 PM


Originally Posted by CousinEddie (Post 1967121)
Any truth to our IAM Mechs insisting on having a defined benefit pension (ya know, the old traditional type like the one we lost forever) being reinstated as part of their negotiations? If they are drawing a line in the sand on that demand, I can see why the negotiations are going nowhere fast.

As for the F/As, from talking to them it seems as though they can't even come close to agreeing with each other, let alone the Company.

Not sure about the IAM position on the pensions. But I concur about the FA's. A lot of them that I talk to say they don't WANT a new contract.


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