Airline Pilot Central Forums - Playing the "what if" game....

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Quote:

Originally Posted by 82spukram (Post 1974681)

The only airlines JetBlue can merge with would be :southwest, Alaska, Hawaiian, spirt, frontier, virgin America.

The DOJ is already investigating DAL, UAL, AAL for price fixing. A low cost carrier is not going to be sucked up by another carrier who is just going to raise its fares. I use to work for Jetblue. I think the only airline to buy them is Southwest. That said under the PEA (which is in place until a CBA is voted in) allows Jetblue to sell up to 1/3 of the fleet without triggering a transactional event which means they could dump the 190's to UAL over 2-3 years while taking 320 deliveries. But once again New York and Massachusetts will not allow the only LLC with a strong northeast presence to be bought and raise fares for the voters.

Southwest?

You mean the one that bought AirTran and eliminated competition and flights and raised fares in Atlanta?

That Southwest that is already the largest domestic carrier?

That Southwest that only flies 737's and has shown that it will get rid of non 737's ASAP (AirTran 717's and the plan for the failed Frontier buy)

I'm sure the DOJ and Politicians won't mind any of that at all.

Like it or not Southwest is considered a LLC carrier. The business model is know for bringing lower fares just like JetBlue is know even though JetBlue claimed a premium on there tickets compared to other carriers on the route. So yes that exact southwest.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pilotgolfer (Post 1973676)

Beechnut,

These guys are not correct. I was in the first 2007 class at United when I left JetBlue. You could have held Denver in 2008 prior to the furloughs, but you would be about 200 #s away from a 737 or A320 in Denver today.

You would have been furloughed for 3 years and now you'd be making about 140 an hour on 737/320/756/767. You can hold any base on a narrow body and be a line holder. You would barely be a line holder on 756 in any base (except Denver).

I've played the what if game from the other side of your coin. The furlough sucked, plain and simple. Life is better now. JetBlue is gonna get bought and you will be fine.

I was an Aug 2006 hire...I still talk to my sim partner who is still in right seat of Bus. I haven't checked recently but I think most of my classmates are Line holding 190 Captains or perhaps reserve on the Bus.

Thanks for the information. I started JB August 2007. I'm about half way up the 3100 pilot seniority list and have bypassed 320 CA for nearly two years. By the time everyone is trained from this bid, I'll have about 100 CA's in JFK below me.... about enough to keep me a line holder most of the year. A bid or two more and I shouldn't have to worry about reserve at all. (I hope.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beechnut (Post 1975029)

Well then, congrats on being a CA at an LCC. You've topped out. I have an acquaintance, a hull loss waiting to happen, who is a CA upgrade at an LCC with <500 hrs 121 time and on property under a year. It's not all upgrade time...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hilltopper89 (Post 1975060)

Don't misunderstand. This is just an exchange of information. He was where I am, I was wondering what would happen if I were where he is.

Good luck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beechnut (Post 1975075)

Don't misunderstand. This is just an exchange of information. He was where I am, I was wondering what would happen if I were where he is.

Good luck.

Understood. It's not all about where you are on the list...

Quote:

Originally Posted by 82spukram (Post 1974875)

First off what is an LLC? Limited liability corporation? ;)

Lower fares huh? Is that why they have the industry's highest Total System Passenger yield in 2014? Or the industry's highest total System Passenger Revenue per ASM (prasm) in 2014?

http://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/2...er%20Yield.htm

http://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/2...0per%20ASM.htm

Perception and reality are not the same thing. With recent (so to speak) expansion into more traditional legacy markets (LGA/EWR/BOS/SFO etc), Southwest's costs have risen as they chase the higher revenue potential in those major markets. Add in employee costs that have or will rise (new pilot deal, flight attendants etc) and this ain't the Southwest of old.

So I have a hard time seeing the #1 domestic carrier, being allowed to merge/buy the #7 carrier, especially given the heavy NY/ NE/DC area (BWI and DCA)/Florida concentration where they are primarily #1 and #2 in most markets.

(Table 2-8 Top 10 Airlines by Domestic Enplanements: 2013 and 2014 | Bureau of Transportation Statistics)

So how would allowing Southwest to buy/merge its biggest East Coast low fare/low cost competitor be a good thing for competition?

Not sure any of the big 4 would be allowed to merge with JetBlue, as there are competition issues with each. (UAL probably having the least overlap of the 4 except for JFK/EWR)

DC

For all of the various merger rumors being chucked around on these forums, there are only two obvious ones out there so far as I can tell. None of the legacies will be allowed to acquire anyone, and even SWA would have an uphill battle to get approval for an acquisition (looks like they are going back to organic growth with their expanding international services anyways).

However, a good case could be made for JetBlue and Virgin to merge due to their fleet similarities (E190s aside), similar cultures and customer segments. Also, Spirit and Frontier would also be good merger candidates for the exact same reasons.

Although I'd be happy to see UAL buy new cut rate C-series I think mgmt has already tipped its hand by snapping up used narrowbodies. There should be plenty more of those coming available as carriers from weaker economies start shedding aircraft to survive (e.g. Aeroflot is trying to sell roughly 40 aircraft). We are unlikely to get new/used E190s either, at least it seems that way if you've watched Brian Z's comments on fleet planning in the UpFront News.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beechnut (Post 1975075)

Don't misunderstand. This is just an exchange of information. He was where I am, I was wondering what would happen if I were where he is.

Good luck.

So ... Were you hired by UAL at 07 turned it down and went to JB ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hilltopper89 (Post 1975086)

Understood. It's not all about where you are on the list...

I wasn't going to jump into Internet forum nonsense, but I couldn't resist. You've been at your first airline for two years now and you have it all figured out huh? ;)