Airline Pilot Central Forums - Get Out and Vote!

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)

- United (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/)

- - Get Out and Vote! (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/united/92601-get-out-vote.html)

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpecialTracking (Post 2042508)

Two points.

First, this is the most profitable time in the history of the airlines. What will the landscape look like in 3-5 years when we're trying to negotiate a full contract? In 3-5 years we will be negotiating in an uncertain environment. In 3-5 years we will be at least 2.5 years behind a mature Delta contract. I realize your position of time value of money but this extension isn't free. It represents an opportunity cost extending a less than optimal total compensation package into a period of uncertain airline economics for 13-0-2%.

Second, many put a lot of faith in the snap up, averaged, up until Jan 1 2018 Delta me too clause. Delta is negotiating a full contract. Their compensation is going to increase thru many vehicles within their contract. I would be surprised if their pay/profit sharing is greater than our TA extension value. NMB will point to ours as industry standard. I expect Delta to hit it out of the park with the balance of their contract thereby nullifying our me too clause.

I put zero value in the second point, as I don't expect Delta to get a new contract in the next couple of years and when they do, I don't expect it to be a great contract.

As for the first point, this economic expansion has been weak and appears to be getting long in the tooth. RASM has been flat and Southwest's RASM forecast indicates that this isn't going to be a good environment to negotiate a new contract. So domestic yields sound like they'll be under pressure. In addition, on the international front, the dollar's continued strength makes US air carriers less competitive than their international counterparts.

If, as you suggest, Delta hits it out of the park on section 6 items, we'll be able to use their contract as a template for a new contract. Would I rather UALALPA follow rather than lead on this cycle? Yes. I want UALALPA to concentrate their efforts on contract enforcement over the next couple of years (rather than negotiate a new contract) because it doesn't matter how great our contract is if it's not enforceable.

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldmako (Post 2042515)

Gettinbumped,

You're welcome.

I assumed that someone would hop on my comment. But here's where we differ. My fear is that after we agree to this, UA will have us right where they want us. Namely, cheap relative to DAL when looking at total cost. Forget the straight hourly rate, there is a ton of compensation buried in work rules, sick leave accrual, vacation pay/override, etc. For example:

DAL already has a 5.4 (vs our 5.0) rig do they not? Add that up over a year (lets say 16 days per month X 12 and you wind up north of 76 hours) and you could receive an additional full months pay. Take that 76 hours at 180 bucks and add another 2 grand to your B/C fund. Small numbers add up fast, especially if you're a new hire and have 20 years to go. As another example, I used to fly Bus 4 days with a 31 hour break in CLE. Because there was no duty period that day, our rig didn't apply. Road apples.

A quick check of the current SSC report shows an average 5:26cr per day on the Bus, and 5:21cr on the 737. So I guess those DAL fellas aren't earning that extra full months pay after all. But we will be tearing them up with rates 18% higher than their's if this TA passes. And C2012 gave us 5 hours per calendar day. Not per duty day, like C2000 and C2003. A definite improvement. Are you just lamenting the past? AMR has 5 hours per duty day...even on their new shiny contract...12 hour 3 days with 2 duty periods...just like the 'good ol' days' of our C2000. yuck.

Quote:

After we agree to FRMS / 117 relief, UALco will have zero incentive to negotiate. Just this week, KWI-IAD cancelled at least twice due to crew. Cancellations like that are happening system wide, every week. That's huge leverage and we're letting it go for peanuts as this place is sloshing cash. Hell, they're giving the shareholders 4 billion and Oscar (at least) 28 million.

Did you listen to the webinar? It had the guys who negotiated this deal and JH answering questions about what we gave up, not all these Monday morning forum quarterbacks speculating...hint: it's nothing. In fact there are gets in the FRMS language. The 2 year extension is what the company gets..other than that, no concessions from us. The easy money in the MOU 22 replacement might help with those cancellations, but that's still 100% up to the crew and their willingness to extend.

Quote:

Originally Posted by azdryheat (Post 2042531)

You are a wise man.

Because of a few days of stock market losses, people are screaming the sky is falling.
Record job numbers, low oil prices, low unemployment and projected record airline profits are ignored from a few wild days in the stock market.
If all this worries you, please stay out of stocks. You will not be able to handle the stress.
Looking past the hourly pay, we will be far behind most other airlines and now that the company has what they want, we will be stuck for a long time.

Please give examples.

What's funny to me is it's the same NO guys as last time (C2012). Only then it was....

"Delta Minus! why is our pay less than Delta's!"
"I'm voting NO because of LOA 25! we're throwing the furloughees under the bus"

This extension crushes both of those arguments in a big way. Still not enough. :D

But just like last time, common sense will prevail. It passes ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thor (Post 2042722)

This TA is many things (or not) to many pilots, but to me it's an attempt for the company to buy schedule reliability for the long haul fleet. With a reliable FRMS, I think we'll see some "game changing" :rolleyes: new routes with sparky and the new bigfoot deluxe. More block hours at wide body rates (plus a raise) are all good things no doubt. Cash in hand is great, but who really believes that this raise is the result of a magnanimous new CEO? We have something they need, and understandably they'll try to buy it as cheap as possible.

Considering that the TA vote will close days before Q4 and 2015 profits are released and you know we'll experience buyers remorse when we see the effect cheap oil, high load factors, and stable ticket prices has on the bottom line.

Just like Craigslist, we don't have to accept the lowball offer.

http://cf.alpa.org/Internet/public/Ual/FIN2.jpg

This was not a take it or leave it offer. It was negotiated. I'm sure they tried to get out cheap, but our NC gutted em. :cool:

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldmako (Post 2042515)

Seeing as how they are whacking DXB and KWI perhaps the cash slosh it not enough to offset the unreliability of the flying. I am not sure cheerleading for canceled flights due to crew issues is a win. Surely someone has taken a look at the block hours on the B777 in February versus say December when both those trips were in the system. If you are junior DCA 777 guy you are cheerleading yourself to a reserve schedule.

I don't believe the new TA requires pilots to extend their duty day. So if canceled flights is what you want for not extending you will still be duly rewarded with that opportunity. In fact you can do it for 16% more than you did in January.

Here is the question I would like pose. If this agreement does pass with a large margin in favor. Should the bases where the LEC was opposed to the agreement start a recall effort? If the leadership is that much out of touch with the rank and file perhaps they should be replaced. Of course that is presuming the vote goes similar to the poll here that is showing roughly 3 to 1 in favor.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thor (Post 2042819)

I'm pretty sure every negotiation is take it or leave it. To truly know if this negotiation represents a "gutting" we'd have to know what the company's positions were. Somehow that info is never released to the pilot group, weird huh?

The point being..."never take the first offer" or "we don't have to take the lowball offer" are bogus statements. There were many offers and counter offers. The negotiated TA is FAR from the first/lowball offer. That's why we have a NC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thor (Post 2042819)

JH passed several of the company's positions in video blast mails. Some were non starters and 2 items were dropped for reasons he clearly stated. Obviously the most important company positions would never truly be divulged to the NC right?

Quote:

Originally Posted by azdryheat (Post 2042531)

I wish someone would tell Wall Street about those projected record profits. UAL is down 30% off last January's high. :eek: