Junior base options...
05-07-2016 | 05:06 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 524
Likes: 0
From: Pressing On
T-6 Pilot,
First, congrats on getting hired! I wanted to wade into the 737 basing discussion with some initial perspectives with a whooping 60 days on property (8 Mar Indoc start) as well as to throw some really interesting math out on not just how fast everything is moving here at United right now (to get you and other poolies fired up!) but also some of the "migration patterns" when newhires get their first true bidding choice after the Day 1 class drop aka a system "vacancy bid." An overall disclaimer here is the trendy acronym YMMV (your mileage may vary) as trying to guess which equipment and bases to bid for greatest seniority growth truly is a crapshot unless you're FB friends with the United VP of Network Planning! For instance, I have a good bud hired ~Aug '15 who took an A320 to EWR, cleared IOE late October, and by January '16 was holding a line at 56% FO seniority! The last 3 months, however, he's been trending backward toward the G-Line (cutoff percentage where you're GUARANTEED a line if you bid it) because United has not only shut off the newhire A320 pipeline until Fall, but they're also consolidating A320 ops more at SFO, DEN, IAH, and ORD and slightly shrinking LAX, IAD and EWR. Hence....YMMV!
Here's what I've seen in my brief 60 days:
- My overall company seniority has gone from 12492 to 12442....50 pilots have either hung up the headsets at Age 65 or early out for med/other issues
- 132 newhires below me have been added to the June bid month staffing roster in 4 BES (base, equip, seat): 737 EWR/SFO/LAX FO & 756 EWR FO. NOTE: There is probably 1 or perhaps 2 classes who are on property but not added to base rosters yet as it seems to take 7-10 days from start to populate your assisgnment
- At EWR I am 398/420 with 22 new hires below me. If I'd gone to SFO I'd be 180/233 (53 below) and LAX 178/210 (32 below). We had no 757/767 but there are 25 x 756 EWR FO below me.
So, you'd think looking at these numbers that SFO is the no brainer as the fastest growing base in United's fasting growing fleet if you want seniority and a line....right? Well I'm not so sure about that because I think the company is artificially pumping up SFO manning for the Summer because they know that as soon as they open Vacancy Bid 16_07 to help fill Fall training requirements (esp. 777-300ER arrivals!), they are going to see a mass migration eastward by SFO 737 FOs based purely on the precedent set by Vacancy Bid 16_06 which closed in early April as, presumably, the final move opportunity until about 1 September. I went back and glanced at 16_06 results for the SFO 737 FOs and out of the bottom 60 FOs who were eligible to move laterally to another base (seniority #s 167-227) in that bid, 40 of them bid out to IAH, ORD, IAD, LAX, and mostly EWR. LAX saw a migration eastward too but significantly less than SFO.
Why is this? The main reason is that in an average newhire class, I'd guess that 60-70% of folks live Great Plains and points eastward making ORD/IAH/IAD/EWR commutes significantly shorter. There are also other variables to consider certainly....commuting to a location with family for free crashpad, proximity to ANG/Reserve gig, cost of local area/crashpad/hotel rooms and trip quality. Big picture...all the 737 flying looks pretty damn good and LAX may be a bit of a sleeper with the amount of Mexico and Hawaii it gets (although Hawaii would be untouchable except for a random reserve). But everyone will pretty freely admit that EWR offers the best overall 737 flying in United's system. Most starts are early AM and many include a single 4-5 hour leg down to the Caribbean/Mex where you're on the beach by early/mid PM for 24 hour layover. Whatever redeye flying EWR gets is almost always on the final leg back from west coast so you're dog tired commuting home but at least you're done. The 2 west coast bases see a lot more redeyes to START trips which makes them technically same-day commutable but if you're 41 like me that is a brutal way to start a 3-4 day trip perhaps. The 737 flying out of IAD and ORD looks to have a lot more hub to hub and less international overall. IAH 737 is a bigger gateway to Mexico/CA with less Caribbean flying than EWR and is taking 6+ months to secure. Finally, DEN is creeping way back and some 1.5 year folks just snuck in there on 737 FO which was unthinkable a few years ago.
So hopefully all these data points help. Big picture is that the pilot staffing is pushing 70% of newhires to SFO and LAX 737 right now based not only on demand/growth out there but also because historically huge numbers of pilots bid back eastwards at earliest opportunity and there is very little secondary bid flow going westward among newhires. I'm confident that although I'm not even IOE complete and would be at like 77% as SFO 737 FO, whatever seniority I'd enjoy out there for June-August would come way back down when 16_07 vacancy bid closes late Summer. In Newark, I'll sit reserve all Summer but expect to see a big seniority boost in early Fall when folks escape the left coast. Now having predicted all that, watch the total opposite happen....Majors 101 right?
Good luck...hope this helps. Things are REALLY good here at United,
BK
First, congrats on getting hired! I wanted to wade into the 737 basing discussion with some initial perspectives with a whooping 60 days on property (8 Mar Indoc start) as well as to throw some really interesting math out on not just how fast everything is moving here at United right now (to get you and other poolies fired up!) but also some of the "migration patterns" when newhires get their first true bidding choice after the Day 1 class drop aka a system "vacancy bid." An overall disclaimer here is the trendy acronym YMMV (your mileage may vary) as trying to guess which equipment and bases to bid for greatest seniority growth truly is a crapshot unless you're FB friends with the United VP of Network Planning! For instance, I have a good bud hired ~Aug '15 who took an A320 to EWR, cleared IOE late October, and by January '16 was holding a line at 56% FO seniority! The last 3 months, however, he's been trending backward toward the G-Line (cutoff percentage where you're GUARANTEED a line if you bid it) because United has not only shut off the newhire A320 pipeline until Fall, but they're also consolidating A320 ops more at SFO, DEN, IAH, and ORD and slightly shrinking LAX, IAD and EWR. Hence....YMMV!
Here's what I've seen in my brief 60 days:
- My overall company seniority has gone from 12492 to 12442....50 pilots have either hung up the headsets at Age 65 or early out for med/other issues
- 132 newhires below me have been added to the June bid month staffing roster in 4 BES (base, equip, seat): 737 EWR/SFO/LAX FO & 756 EWR FO. NOTE: There is probably 1 or perhaps 2 classes who are on property but not added to base rosters yet as it seems to take 7-10 days from start to populate your assisgnment
- At EWR I am 398/420 with 22 new hires below me. If I'd gone to SFO I'd be 180/233 (53 below) and LAX 178/210 (32 below). We had no 757/767 but there are 25 x 756 EWR FO below me.
So, you'd think looking at these numbers that SFO is the no brainer as the fastest growing base in United's fasting growing fleet if you want seniority and a line....right? Well I'm not so sure about that because I think the company is artificially pumping up SFO manning for the Summer because they know that as soon as they open Vacancy Bid 16_07 to help fill Fall training requirements (esp. 777-300ER arrivals!), they are going to see a mass migration eastward by SFO 737 FOs based purely on the precedent set by Vacancy Bid 16_06 which closed in early April as, presumably, the final move opportunity until about 1 September. I went back and glanced at 16_06 results for the SFO 737 FOs and out of the bottom 60 FOs who were eligible to move laterally to another base (seniority #s 167-227) in that bid, 40 of them bid out to IAH, ORD, IAD, LAX, and mostly EWR. LAX saw a migration eastward too but significantly less than SFO.
Why is this? The main reason is that in an average newhire class, I'd guess that 60-70% of folks live Great Plains and points eastward making ORD/IAH/IAD/EWR commutes significantly shorter. There are also other variables to consider certainly....commuting to a location with family for free crashpad, proximity to ANG/Reserve gig, cost of local area/crashpad/hotel rooms and trip quality. Big picture...all the 737 flying looks pretty damn good and LAX may be a bit of a sleeper with the amount of Mexico and Hawaii it gets (although Hawaii would be untouchable except for a random reserve). But everyone will pretty freely admit that EWR offers the best overall 737 flying in United's system. Most starts are early AM and many include a single 4-5 hour leg down to the Caribbean/Mex where you're on the beach by early/mid PM for 24 hour layover. Whatever redeye flying EWR gets is almost always on the final leg back from west coast so you're dog tired commuting home but at least you're done. The 2 west coast bases see a lot more redeyes to START trips which makes them technically same-day commutable but if you're 41 like me that is a brutal way to start a 3-4 day trip perhaps. The 737 flying out of IAD and ORD looks to have a lot more hub to hub and less international overall. IAH 737 is a bigger gateway to Mexico/CA with less Caribbean flying than EWR and is taking 6+ months to secure. Finally, DEN is creeping way back and some 1.5 year folks just snuck in there on 737 FO which was unthinkable a few years ago.
So hopefully all these data points help. Big picture is that the pilot staffing is pushing 70% of newhires to SFO and LAX 737 right now based not only on demand/growth out there but also because historically huge numbers of pilots bid back eastwards at earliest opportunity and there is very little secondary bid flow going westward among newhires. I'm confident that although I'm not even IOE complete and would be at like 77% as SFO 737 FO, whatever seniority I'd enjoy out there for June-August would come way back down when 16_07 vacancy bid closes late Summer. In Newark, I'll sit reserve all Summer but expect to see a big seniority boost in early Fall when folks escape the left coast. Now having predicted all that, watch the total opposite happen....Majors 101 right?
Good luck...hope this helps. Things are REALLY good here at United,
BK
Second, Great Post and lots of Gold in there.
Third, the Prime Directive is to find a place so you eventually don't have to commute. Understand spouse jobs, reserve units, kids in school. But it cannot be said often or strongly enough that commuting makes this a different job.
Got hired in 2013 and was told we would be lineholders by Christmas in IAH. Didn't count on it and so wasn't disappointed. But classmates who went to 737 EWR pulled that off, and Classmates who went to 757 and 76T or bid to IAD 737 and 757 have had a great ride. West coast folks who jumped on SFO and Lax not doing badly. Denver looked like a 5 year wait, but folks were there in 2. The IAH shrinkage kept me at the bottom of the list looking at the G line with a Hubble telescope, and then a sudden jump into the low 80s. But had moved to base and learned the intricacies of VDO. Which i think may be the best deal going. Another thread...
Finally, a word of Caution. Listen to folks who have been around LCal and LUal and listen to their stories. We now are in a historic hiring period and things are great, and could stay that way. But might want to keep drilling or not count on a widebody FO job quickly and base the mortgage on that.
Again, welcome!
05-07-2016 | 05:41 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2010
Posts: 451
Likes: 0
From: 737 Cap
First, Welcome!
Second, Great Post and lots of Gold in there.
Third, the Prime Directive is to find a place so you eventually don't have to commute. Understand spouse jobs, reserve units, kids in school. But it cannot be said often or strongly enough that commuting makes this a different job.
Got hired in 2013 and was told we would be lineholders by Christmas in IAH. Didn't count on it and so wasn't disappointed. But classmates who went to 737 EWR pulled that off, and Classmates who went to 757 and 76T or bid to IAD 737 and 757 have had a great ride. West coast folks who jumped on SFO and Lax not doing badly. Denver looked like a 5 year wait, but folks were there in 2. The IAH shrinkage kept me at the bottom of the list looking at the G line with a Hubble telescope, and then a sudden jump into the low 80s. But had moved to base and learned the intricacies of VDO. Which i think may be the best deal going. Another thread...
Finally, a word of Caution. Listen to folks who have been around LCal and LUal and listen to their stories. We now are in a historic hiring period and things are great, and could stay that way. But might want to keep drilling or not count on a widebody FO job quickly and base the mortgage on that.
Again, welcome!
Second, Great Post and lots of Gold in there.
Third, the Prime Directive is to find a place so you eventually don't have to commute. Understand spouse jobs, reserve units, kids in school. But it cannot be said often or strongly enough that commuting makes this a different job.
Got hired in 2013 and was told we would be lineholders by Christmas in IAH. Didn't count on it and so wasn't disappointed. But classmates who went to 737 EWR pulled that off, and Classmates who went to 757 and 76T or bid to IAD 737 and 757 have had a great ride. West coast folks who jumped on SFO and Lax not doing badly. Denver looked like a 5 year wait, but folks were there in 2. The IAH shrinkage kept me at the bottom of the list looking at the G line with a Hubble telescope, and then a sudden jump into the low 80s. But had moved to base and learned the intricacies of VDO. Which i think may be the best deal going. Another thread...
Finally, a word of Caution. Listen to folks who have been around LCal and LUal and listen to their stories. We now are in a historic hiring period and things are great, and could stay that way. But might want to keep drilling or not count on a widebody FO job quickly and base the mortgage on that.
Again, welcome!
The only thing I will add is that the reason Den f/o slots came available was not growth and definitely doesn't predict anything. The bids were simply equalization to existing captains that the company decided not to bump out of den after the 767 base closed and the refugees took cap bids. There hasn't been an actual Captain bid in Denver since 2012. It is very unlikely that there will be any den bids for a while unless the company actually commits to den. Since the merger, the base has shrunk by almost half. As a fwiw...
Scott
05-07-2016 | 06:51 AM
#23
On Reserve
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 187
Likes: 8
IAH,ORD,DEN, SFO. Not IAD or EWR. Go 737
05-07-2016 | 08:19 AM
#25
On Reserve
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 22
Likes: 0
05-07-2016 | 09:18 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,488
Likes: 98
Bid for location first, then equipment that will get you to that location. If you're going to commute no matter what because you're tied to where you live, go for flying options/commutability. In EWR that's 756, in SFO/LAX that's 737/bus.
Bus is a better airplane, guppy has better flying.
Bus is a better airplane, guppy has better flying.
05-07-2016 | 12:14 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 348
Likes: 0
From: .
Commuting to SFO is not awesome. I commuted to reserve there for a short time. I'd commute up on a RJ flight and while we would be taxiing to the runway, they'd turn us back to the gate because SFO was issuing ground delays/stops. Happened multiple times. High stress commuting to SFO, especially on reserve.
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