billsaw

I saw in the closed thread someone commenting to calm down United had 11,000 apps on file.


So my question is where do you get that number? 11,000? Is that what they say? Or do you have access to their database? The BLS says the current unemployment rate is 4.9%. Really??? Really.....

My buddy who is a chief pilot at a smaller operation but that requires standards between airline and regionals will tell you he will get 50 apps to 1 hire. Now most of those are guys below hiring minimums saying how they will "do an awesome job" if given the chance.

So the question is are these 11,000 apps actually "qualified" people? My guess no.

Secondly how old are these apps? Who knows? Three or four years old?

If that is the case many could have already been hired by other majors.

If your department spits out a number and says we have 11,000 apps on file ask them how many apps they have on file of "qualified" (by your airlines minimums) that have been submitted/updated in the last 6 months. My guess is it won't be anywhere near 11,000 and you will never ever ever ever ever get that "real" number from them.

People this is supply and demand economics 101 at it's simplest.

Now I am gonna throw some numbers out below that are subjective but bear with me and don't tell me you did this for $xx.

Real cost of becoming a pilot in the year 2000.

35k and you have a commercial multi
15k college education
50k total

Get a job with a regional making peanuts with ~500 hours maybe 250 I can't remember about what year dropped to hiring 250 hour pilots.

2015 real cost to becoming a pilot

65k commercial multi (actually probably more)
50 college education
115k total

Kicker is in 2015 after spending more than double the money you couldn't get a job (at a regional) until you had 1,500 hours.

So does anyone wonder with the college requirement in place (for the majors, nobody wants to be regional for life) and the skyrocketing cost of a degree and the rising cost training to not be hirable there is nobody in the pipeline?

Then there is the military. They produce far less pilots than they did in the Vietnam era. Way less.

Bottom line is if anyone thinks there is not a problem here you have blinders on.

And it all circles back to economics 101. Supply and demand, and cost of entry.

It always happens from the bottom up so the US majors will be the last to see it hit them.

Read the stories from the guys in the middle east. Major shortages there. Then read about Asia. Even worse in some areas. They work guys like crazy over in those places and they are short.

Now you see it at the regionals. Does anyone think they are starting to pay 50k+ in the first year because they just feel charitable all of the sudden? No it's because they have too. So ask yourself if they have got away with paying 20k a year for 20 years what changed in 2016 to make them double first year pay???

That will all trickle uphill. As all the major guys retire these regional guys will take their place and without enough people behind them what happens?

I can tell you how the bubble burst wide open. And I mean wide open.
You have all the "hired guns" working in the Middle East or Asia that don't have near the QOL as a US major guy but don't wanna come home because of the pay cut. Well they are starting to come home. They are tired of being worked to death overseas. Problem is they still need pilots there and they are already hiring guys at the bottom of the barrel. So the only answer to attract people or retain them is a combination of pay raises and or better QOL. Like letting them be based overseas ie at home.

Now when they institute QOL increases ie more time off becuase they are worked to death already that means more demand. Which with no real supply also means more pay. Then you will see regional guys say hey I can be based in FLL and make 200k a year starting out... Screw the US airlines. I'll take the money.

I am tired of typing but you see where this goes. A real uptick in the economy or the foreign airlines relenting to the pressure to better QOL to create more of a demand and United 11,000 apps that are really only 3,000 of which are on file at every other carrier begins to look downright scary to management.

Your first sign of something happening at the majors will be the lowering of standards. Dropping the college requirement and times. Then you know that the 11,000 list just got short.

I think we are still at least a year out before you see something like this at AA, Delta, UA.

Riverside

Was there a question?

billsaw

I think overall it was a statement to those that believe there are 11,000 guys in their pool and on what is to come.

And yes there were some questions in there.

But I don't know if you don't like those and want another question who is gonna win the superbowl

AllenAllert

Like with the increase in retirement age from 60 to 65, the conditions are ripe for an additional increase in the retirement from 65 to 70 or even elimination of the age restriction. Not only can a president be a chalky old man, we can have chalky old men/women as airline pilots.

United could have pilots with 45+ year careers and occupy the top 500 numbers on the list for about 15-20 years.

This may make the number of apps on file a mute point.

Stay healthy now ----------

cybirr

I think what you are saying is:

- Pilot problem gets worse, before better. If it gets better.
- Majors will have to increase QoL/pay to hold onto what they have.
- Overseas will either increase QoL/pay or hire the heroin addict with one eye, Meniere's Disease and a SEL ticket.
- Regionals are fooked.
- Negative feedback loop ensues, economy collapses for all but mainline airline pilots.

Since you are posting in the UA thread, you work at UA? That means this is good for you?

I am curious as to what you are making as your thesis.

awax

I'm going to recommend that HR bring back the essay section to the application! Good grief.

ReadyRsv

As of 2013 , there were 3,007 counties, 64 parishes, 19 organized boroughs, 11 census areas, 41 independent cities, and the District of Columbia for a total of 3,143 counties and county-equivalents in the United States.

We need like 2 pilots per county, every year. There will never be a pilot shortage, pay at the regionals has jumped 100%-300% for newhires in the last 3 years. People seeing this pay will enroll in colleges and soon we will have plenty of pilots. PS, attendees of approved colleges can get hired at 750 hours. (Thats like 3 hours a week during school)

oldmako

I'm all for raising the max age to 67, just as long as they wait 5 or 6 years before they do.

John Carr

Wait, I don't get it. How does that play into the electoral where some counties and states may have to ability to produce MORE than 2 on the electoral method?

billsaw

-Yes it get worse before better. When pay and QOL increase on the bottom the problem will fix itself.

-Majors will be the last that have to increase pay and QOL substantially. It's a bottom up thing.

-Overseas needs a major QOL increase. When that happens demand for pilots grows. Pretty sure all you need is a pulse to get in many of the places over there as it is.

This new generation of guys as a whole doesn't want to be a slave for 10 years like the last ten years. So QOL will be huge for the younger class and I can't say I blame em. Also pay will have to match investment. To spend 100k to 120k to pursue a field in which your starting pay is 22k a year, work you tail off and at year 10 your making what 85k at a regional is downright stupid.

Lawyers that invest that kind of money are making 85k within a couple of years if they are half a55.

It's a long road to hoe.