Orders?
 

So what's this about:

United Airlines Takes Over Republic Order for 24 Embraer 175s

Let the experts speak

It means nothing more than we are buying our regional jets. We already own Mesas fleet of 175's and maybe a few of the SkyWest 175's. I think United owns close to 100 175s with this anouncement.

It makes sense to buy the RJs, if a regional folds, can't staff or goes bankrupt and demands higher prices from United, we can reposes the jets and move them elsewhere. Maybe even mainline.:eek:

All 3 airlines lost their shirts when Republic went bankrupt. RAH owned the jets that they needed and bent them over for more money in court. Lesson learned maybe? Just my theory.

Does this not sound really bad though? They "delay" an order of -700's that were supposed to take over for the unreliable regional product and decide to take over someone else's order of big RJs? Seems like this announcement confirms less mainline jobs and more outsourcing

Not quite. These 170s were already "ordered" for UAX.

The method of payment (own vs lease) changed AND it saves UA money because UA can finance for less than a regional can lease.

Since UA reimburses the lease payment UA is ultimately on the hook either way. As mentioned this also gives UA ultimate control of the frames.

Oh ok...that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification

The only asterisk on that is that it sort of kills the "we are deferring the -700's to reduce CAPEX" when they turn around and spend $600 million of the $1.6 Billion saved on E175's. The other Billion is forecast to be returned to the shareholders. So if it's not about the CAPEX, what is it about?

Scope is my guess. I would not AT ALL be surprised to see a SNB order soon to unlock the 76 seaters

I would love to see 75 EMB195 orders and to get the 100 175s United leases to the the regionals back in house and swap the deferred 61 frames announced yesterday with Alaska for all of VAs Buses

Unaccurate, all of Skywest's 175s are owned by Skywest

Unaccurate is Inaccurate! ;)

haha. touché!

Is there any scope left after these 24? please say no

Nope - all scoped out for now. BTW an equal number of CRJ 700 will go away for them.

Only if they order the SNB for mainline

Orders don't mean squat, as we are witnessing in real time this week. Don't have the contract handy at the moment. Please say we need the first frame delivered and on property before they can buy more RJs.

Don't have the contract handy either, but I'm pretty sure they have to be delivered. Don't remember word for word what the language was, but that is my recollection

1-C-1-a-(2)-(c) Up to a total of 255 76-Seat Aircraft plus 70-Seat Aircraft (“76/70- Seat Aircraft”), of which up to 130 may be 76-Seat Aircraft, and then, on or after January 1, 2016, up to 153 76-Seat Aircraft.

Year end 2016:

CRJ700 79
EMB170 38
E175 114

E175 on order 24

Total 255 (138- 76 seaters)

They have/had to park 13- Q400s and 36- 700s to get here. They can get 17 more 76- seaters if they swap them out for 70- seaters. Don't know if they have any more on order.

What do you mean by that?

DL just rejected (finally!) the latest attempt to bribe us with our own flying for more jumbo "RJ's". Finally someone has held the line. Hopefully UAL pilots can't be fooled into continuing that cancerous trend.

Gloopy

It's in our current contract. They can get more 76/70 sweaters if we order a SNB (CS or EmB). Our RJ scope lauguage is the same as Deltas (current contract).

I believe they can get ~50 76/70 sweaters if we get 88 100 sweaters.

Is there even a line to be held? Doesn't the company currently have the option to add SNB and then add more RJs as specified?

I've tried to keep track of the 175 orders. It can be difficult because several orders never mentioned which regional would operate the aircraft. The fleet plan for 2016 ends the year with 114 E175's. My guess is that the 2017 fleet plan will have 153 175's as the year end total (the current limit).

My best estimate on the final 175 fleet:
Skywest 58
Mesa 45
Republic 50
Total of 153.

As of now (at DL) they have a max number of large RJ's. There is nothing they can do at this point to get more...other than fly them at the mainline. The C-Series or any other SNB is irrelevant. The last link to that was the 88 B717's which are already on property.

Got it. Was referring to UAL where if I understand correctly, the SNB add and subsequent specified RJ add is at the co's discretion.

with a corresponding decrease in 70 seaters to accommodate the 255 current limit (70+76). No net gain in airframes. Just swaps.

Yes they do. It's in our current contract. They haven't exercised the option.... yet

Thats not entirely true but pretty close (assuming my math is right).

2016 fleet count shows 114 E175's, 38 E170's and 79 CRJ 700's. Thats a total of 231 70/76 seaters.

Lets just assume they will add 39 more E175's to the fleet for a total of 153 E175's. That means 15 70 seaters would need to be parked to be in compliance with the 255 70/76 limit.

https://sites.google.com/site/unitedfleetsite/express-fleet-tracking

Current and future deliveries.

You must not have read my post above...UAL just annonced 24 E175s for delivery next year.. That's 255 by my count.



Year end 2016:

CRJ700 79
EMB170 38
E175 114

E175 on order 24

Total 255 (138- 76 seaters)

They have/had to park 13- Q400s and 36- 700s to get here. They can get 17 more 76- seaters if they swap them out for 70- seaters. Don't know if they have any more on order.

[QUOTE=jsled;2245880]You must not have read my post above...UAL just annonced 24 E175s for delivery next year.. That's 255 by my count.

The 24 are previous orders for RAH. The only change is that UAL is purchasing the aircraft and leasing to RAH as opposed to RAH leasing the aircraft to be flown for UAL. Those 24 are already included in my count of 153 E175's that have been ordered/delivered.

You are correct that it would get to 255 70/76 seaters. But with current orders for 175's the count would hit the limit of 153 76 seaters (add 39 more) and 15 70 seaters would need to be removed (still 255 70/76 seaters).

Gloopy

The 717 you reference is Similar to what we have. 88 SNB would get them more RJs. I believe the total number of regional aircraft being flown would be 450.

Like I said our contract in this respect is nearly identical.

[QUOTE=AV82SKI;2245894]
<Sigh> We're saying the same thing different ways. :confused: With these 24 aircraft..that this thread is about...plus the year end RJ fleet, we're at 255. So ANY additional 76 seaters (after this 24) will require UAL to park a 70 seater one for one. Just like I said. And yes..153-138=15. (To your point). Arrhggg. That was painful. :D

[QUOTE=jsled;2245908]I understand we are saying the same thing. Didn't really get that you were talking about the 24 E175 orders included in your count. I was only counting the current fleet plus future deliveries.

I don't really get why everyone is considering the "new' order for 24 E175 a NEW order. The aircraft were already ordered and to be leased by RAH. Now they are being purchased by UAL. Getting to 255 with the "new" 24 E175 happens to work mathematically but there are really 39 more E175's coming whether we like it or not.

[QUOTE=AV82SKI;2245935]I'd imagine the heartburn for most is the fact that there's not enough money for more guppies but yet there is for more (more to Ual's bottom line) jumbo RJ's.

Anyone know how close we are to the scope limit?

According to Scott Kirby's comments at the recent investor day we are essentially there. The E175s already in the pipeline will hit the limit and as mentioned in this thread some of the CRJ700s will have to leave to make room for them.

Ok...the scope pic according to Sled (thanks to AV8 and blockplus)

Scope is maxed:

1-C-1-a-(2)-(c) Up to a total of 255 76-Seat Aircraft plus 70-Seat Aircraft (“76/70- Seat Aircraft”), of which up to 130 may be 76-Seat Aircraft, and then, on or after January 1, 2016, up to 153 76-Seat Aircraft.

Year end 2016:

CRJ700.................................. 79
EMB170................................. 38
E175.....................................114

Total......................................231 (114- 76 seaters)


E175 on order: (2017 delivery)

Republic..................................24
Skywest..................................15

Total.......................................270 (153- 76 seaters)

They will have parked 13- Q400s and 36- CRJ700s by year end. They'll have to park 15 more 70-seaters in 2017 to get to 255/153.

Where do the E145s fit into that?

Edit: nevermind, I see this is talking about 70/76 seaters only.

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So is everyone in agreement that if the operation is to grow domestically, which was mentioned as a focus area going forward in the IR presentation, the first step in that is probably to open up new markets? And since it's financially more responsible to open up a new market with a 76 seater that passengers actually enjoy (e175), and not a 130 seater...and we can't acquire anymore without a SNB purchase...and the 737-700s order didnt nothing to allow that.....but a SNB could....and mgmt said they want to take on Delta more....who flies 717s...and has seen a solid growth in their domestic market the last several years....and Kirby's rep is he loves RJs and is smart on how to grow revenue....

All signs seem to indicate more news is on the horizon fleet wise.

When are the 50 seaters going away? Anecdotally, still seeing a lot of the things taking up valuable gate space in SFO and LAX.

Who's CPA is up next with 700s?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/smaller-cities-look-big-again-to-united-1479491156

I found this article interesting...