UPSFO4LIFE

Hope the quality of the next 19 are better than the last 19.

C2078

The 19 + 8 options will be replacements for the 42 MD’s, leaving us with an eventual net loss of 15 airplanes. MD parts are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain.

flyguy23

Not saying you’re wrong, as I’m far from a decision maker when it comes to anything UPS. I do find it difficult to believe we’re going to ditch that large amount of capacity at a time capacity is at an extreme premium.


Plus it’s not just 15 airframes we are losing in that scenario as the MD can carry significantly more than a 76. That’s an enormous level of shrinking at a time growth is green.

tnkrdrvr

The MD may eventually be replaced by the 76 domestically. However, this order is officially for growth. Obviously that can change between now and whenever. The 76 can’t come close to replacing the MD international, so who knows.

BoilerUP

The Company just made $3B+ in profit, and pulled earnings/revenue projections ahead by one year. Air volume has blown out projections, and international is driving margin growth which management desires.

Past results are not indicative of future performance, but there's very little reason to believe the recent 767 order (which was announced as growth, BTW) will be replacements for MD11s and/or that the airline will shrink in total airframes.

Anybody considering employment here should take pessimistic comments along those lines with a substantial grain of salt.

jetlaggy

The MD11F wil outlive me...I thinking the 777XF for replacement

C2078

The MD is doing less and less international. The loss of that volume domestically is certainly an issue. If the company wants to use the 76 as a pure MD replacement to maintain fleet simplicity, then it will take something like 50 additional airframes (so roughly 30 on top of the 19 ordered) to replace that volume. That may not be possible due the 2027 CO2 engine requirements. Plus no one knows how long this “Covid” surge is going to last. The US pax airlines have seen how profitable cargo can be, if they decide to increase cargo capacity somehow that may encroach on our market, at least a bit more. Internationally, we just saw what Qatar did, 30+ orders for the 777-8F, and more operators expanding their air freight business.

The usual suspects here are almost always optimistic, I would love to take this approach, but the reality is there are many unknowns on how UPS will choose to approach the air side in the future. We have seen the approach Carol Tome has taken, profits and margins above everything, meaning we may be isolating important segments of the economy. The UPS board and Wall Street are obviously delighted, the question becomes is that a good long term strategy? No one knows.

For now, good times and good news keep rolling in, every IPA and future IPA pilot should be happy. I still maintain my position that the long term outlook is not as clear as many believe due to rising threats from many different angles and how the Covid situation unwinds.

flyguy23

Its not about being optimistic, but factual. You presented your unsubstantiated theory as a fact. People have been predicting the MD demise for quite a long time, and the only thing to happen thus far is adding 5 additional the last few years.

The 76 order has been presented as growth and nothing else.

jetlaggy

The thing I don’t understand..but wish was explained to me.. is how is Carol so happy with our relationship with Amazon. What makes it so great. What back room deals do we not know about..is she gonna retire and leave us holding a bag of coal.

Precontact

I believe we will be gradually divorcing ourselves from Amazon in the coming years and that will allow us to right-size the fleet.