They factor in the value of bragging rights. (at least at Delta)

If you average a 30 yr career at $275K/yr that equals 8.3 mil. For UPS, that avg is probably on the low side. Having 3 mil combined in a retirement plan over 30 years isn't that far fetched unless the market ROI drops to less than 4%.

Have you not heard of "the rule of 72" ? Divide 72 by the applicable annual interest rate (or annual percentage raises in this case), and you'll come up with the number of years required to double your money, or salary.

Since study assumed perpetual 3% raises, today's UPS Captain making ~ $300K "should" start making $600K 24 years from now. Six more years after that should yield a salary of ~ $716K.

Additionally, study considered factors besides just salary such as Profit Sharing (DL), B Fund contributions (both airlines), and A fund contributions (UPS), just to name several. So, the $12M figure isn't too much out of whack.

Probably looking at benefits, 401K, health care, etc. and hopefully salaries will increase greatly over the next 30 years.

Exactly, there is no way a 30 year career at either is worth $12 million...Probably half that number assuming normal career progression.

24 years ago ( 1992 ) top Captain pay at American, Delta or United was close to 200k a year. Today that number is about 250k
for normal senior captains..I highly doubt you will see pilots making 700k a year even 24 years from now. It'll be more like 350k range I assume

Maybe at ups or fedex but I highly doubt the legacies could afford such contracts long term... Would be nice if things remain great for sure..

No, I don't think that's right. I would be pretty darn sure they earn significantly more than that right now, and with new contracts it will be even better. I don't work for either, but at my company, I am sure it is common to earn over 400K, and a good bit more if you're a 777 captain. I think your target numbers are way low.

Ok, the IPA put out a group of slides showing average line pay predicted for this new contract. A 12 year FO is at about 272. A 12 year plus CPT will be at 389. Average the career earnings and you're close to 300K/yr. 300x30=9 mil in career earnings.

Assuming living 10 years after 65 at 126/yr = 1.2 mil in A find payout.

Is it inconceivable that one could not amass a multi-mil Bfund + self funded 401 K over 30 years?

12 is low balling it in today's numbers even if you consider delta guys getting their 65 hour guarantee for a few years.

I disagree. Many captains will reach $400,000 in W2 earnings next year excluding the bonus payment installment, and many First Officers will clear $280,000. The math in the analysis seems to work.

Now, a major factor in career earnings is how well you invested your 401k and B-fund monies. This can make a huge difference between retiring pilot A and retiring pilot B.

Bottom line is, the whole career earnings exercise is a "wag" and not very scientific. Your mileage may vary.