Falcondrivr

Everyone likes to make a big thing out of this 10,000 apps on file thing. How about some math? The 10,000 apps are from current, qualified ATPs. The "dream job" carriers will hire 3000 of those in 2017 from the "second tier" carriers. (Insert your own definition for "dream job' and "second tier.") There is then seat progression at the second tier. The shortage exists in the vacuum left by those 3000 people moving up. The 3000 number is projected to grow and peak at 5000 somewhere around 2021-2022 I think. The crisis willl be at the second tier carriers who are going to have to look at putting 1500 hour flight instructors in their 320s and 73s. At that point the lowest tier carriers will not have pilots at all.
The FAA is issuing 2-3000 ATP certs a year (https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...men-stats.xlsx) and the pipeline is going to dry up.

Learflyer

The job shortage will arrive when those same recruiters from the job fairs are recruiting pilots from the jetways as they leave their flights. Or Charter guys as they walk into FBO's. Now there's a shortage!

TheFly

It seems the majors are being ultra conservative (no surprise there...), perhaps finding a ways to reduce the amount of pilots they will need. If this goes on too long, outfits like Norwegian and other foreign carriers who are chomping at the bit to snatch up pilots in the US will have their chance.

My two tenths of a dollar....

Scraggly Heron

Per the US Department of Labor, there are 119,200 airline and commercial pilot jobs in the US. Projected growth rate is 5%, which is 2% below the average rate of job growth across all employment sectors. (2014 numbers)

Per the FAA, there are 152,933 ATP holders. (2014 numbers)

That's 33,733 more ATP rated pilots than there are jobs for pilots in the industry.

Then add the 104,322 commercial rated pilots to that number; it's reasonable to assume that someone who gets a commercial rating has at least some interest in flying as a profession. Now we're at 138,055 more pilots than there are jobs for them. (again, 2014 numbers)

If you include all non-glider and helicopter pilots, there are 558,061 pilots in the US. There are 119,200 airline and commercial pilot jobs.

This isn't anecdotal experience or general feelings, these are the hard numbers.

There is no shortage.

NMuir

That doesn't take in to account how many are actually interested and able and current to work.


Regionals wouldn't be paying more if they didn't have to. They are doing so because there is a shortage.

2StgTurbine

Your numbers are correct, but anecdotal evidence can't be ignored. I know lots of people that have their Commercial and have no interest in ever flying as a career. Lots of them get their Commercial to lower their insurance. No one is going to fund a study in order to find out how many rated pilots want a career as an airline/charter/corporate pilot. There are lots of ATP and Commerical pilots who are over 65 and/or can't hold a 1st class medical too.

It really doesn't matter what we think. There are experts out there whose job it is to predict labor growth and they even make gross errors. The only thing we know is that some regional airlines and crappy charter operators are having a hard time finding pilots.

To all of those on here preaching to other pilots that there is a shortage, what is your point? That isn't something we really have control over nor does it really matter to us. To all of those that insist that there will never be a shortage of pilots, you are wrong. A shortage of pilots unwilling to work under crappy conditions is still a shortage, but since most pilots here don't want to work at those crappy operators, then we don't care if those operators improve their working conditions or not. The pilot shortage will not affect the good pilot jobs out there any more than any other variable in this industry.

sherpster

United has 10k apps and pull a hire 700 in a year. Big deal.

Atrasaty

Not sure what that sentence is supposed to say. However the same 10,000 pilots United have on file are the same 10,000 pilots Delta, American, FedEx, UPS etc etc have apps from also. It's a numbers game and 10,000 is conservatively about 4 years supply for the projected demand that the major airlines will need. Barring a catastrophe the requirements will get very flexible at that point. So it depends how you define a shortage. Is it when airlines hire MS flight sim kids and train them to be cockpit ready or when they lower the requirements to a standard that is below the major hoop jumping, circle jerking and massive financial sacrifices I had through to get a turbo prop job a few decades ago?...its all relative.

tcaphou1

Norwegian Airlines will not accept an FAA ATP certificate.

Packrat

Their website says you will get a two year waiver while you transition to a European license.