Pilot shortage date?
06-15-2012, 08:34 PM
#21
Working weekends
Joined APC: Jul 2005
Position: Left Seat
Posts: 2,384
Originally Posted by PilotAnalyst
The interesting thing to consider is that people are projecting a “shortage” based almost solely on Retirements. What that means is that 30-35 years ago when the regional airlines were many, many times smaller than what they are now, the Industry/Military was able to provide enough pilots for the major and other large domestic carriers during a time of intense domestic growth. The “shortage” talked about today is based off of the backside of a hiring curve that started 35 years ago, the backside is almost always less drastic than the front-side(due to early retirements, illness, furloughs..etc).
The best thing to do is probably ask somebody who got hired 30 years ago, what was it like? Was their a huge shortage? Was every regional airline pilot at that time able to get on the airline of their choice, or were some unable to get hired, and remained at the Regional's?
30-35 years ago the conditions were
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very small regional pool to hire pilots from(were talking the days of Navajo's and Metro 2's, airlines like Skywest had only like 20 airplanes)
-A regional airline system that was in the process of growing(thus demanding more pilots of their own)
Non favorable Conditions:
-flight training was relatively inexpensive
-Many Military Pilots
Today our conditions are different.
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very expensive flight training
-ATP requirement
-less Military Pilots
Non Favorable:
-A very large regional pool to hire from
-A regional airline system that is shrinking and is projected to shrink for the next 10 years.
The Question we have to ask ourselves is why did we not see a Shortage 35 years ago? Or did we? If we didn't see a shortage 35 years ago, what makes us think with our current conditions today, and not as drastic hiring curve as seen 35 years, we would see one today?
The best thing to do is probably ask somebody who got hired 30 years ago, what was it like? Was their a huge shortage? Was every regional airline pilot at that time able to get on the airline of their choice, or were some unable to get hired, and remained at the Regional's?
30-35 years ago the conditions were
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very small regional pool to hire pilots from(were talking the days of Navajo's and Metro 2's, airlines like Skywest had only like 20 airplanes)
-A regional airline system that was in the process of growing(thus demanding more pilots of their own)
Non favorable Conditions:
-flight training was relatively inexpensive
-Many Military Pilots
Today our conditions are different.
Favorable Conditions for Shortage:
-Very expensive flight training
-ATP requirement
-less Military Pilots
Non Favorable:
-A very large regional pool to hire from
-A regional airline system that is shrinking and is projected to shrink for the next 10 years.
The Question we have to ask ourselves is why did we not see a Shortage 35 years ago? Or did we? If we didn't see a shortage 35 years ago, what makes us think with our current conditions today, and not as drastic hiring curve as seen 35 years, we would see one today?
"ATP Requirement" is a non-issue (my opinion) because prior to the Ab-Initio fad of the late 90's, to get hired at Skywest, Eagle, etc, you needed "1500 and 3" (1500 TT of which was 300 multi) to get on with a regional, as a J-31/SF340 FO. I don't remember this causing a shortage at those places. Back in the late 80s, early 90s, people would beg for the CP name and address at the "quality" regionals such as Eagle and Skywest.
Regional airline system shrinking - from my observations the opposite is happening and a glimpse inside any union meeting will reflect concern regarding encroachment by the regionals into "major" territory.
Less Military Pilots - yes less than Vietnam/etc but we are exiting two wars lasting back to 2000, 2001 and we have plenty of (in addition to others) current, qualified, C-17/KC-10/KC-135 drivers with international time (and combat time, thank you for keeping us safe) who are gonna be in the resume stack. These are ALL college degreed, some Masters, groomed, know-how-to-pass-an-oral-board, candidates. Numerically, less candidates than in prior years ? Maybe. Will this be a causal factor for a shortage? Doubt it. Again, thank you for your service guys.
Expensive Flight Training: Flight training has never been cheap, and thus, has always been expensive. Yes, agreed, it is leaps and bounds more expensive than before. What are we at now ? 110 bucks an hour for a C-172 ? Yes, crazy expensive. This indeed may play a role in a shortage.
My opinion: We need to step back and look at the world-view, and skip the price of flight training, etc stuff. What may cause a shortage is todays X-box generation simply is not looking up at the sky and seeing contrails, and saying gee, I want to be a pilot someday. Also, lets face it, the old school airline career is over, gone. Days of 4 day work months to Europe, with hot FAs, in heavy iron, at 200K a year, are gone. Many are simply not going to pursue aviation. Todays sub-30 generation is few and far between those willing to earn 18K a year to sit right seat in an RJ, after having paid 100K (see training costs above), to get there. "See kid, in a few years you may be at a major, so hang in there." That generation is like, uh, negative, see ya, I want to earn a living NOW. Remember, that/this is a generation that changes jobs like every 2 years.
THAT, my friends, may cause the shortage.
06-15-2012, 11:09 PM
#22
Day puke
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: Out.
Posts: 3,865
Originally Posted by satpak77
Observations, nothing more
"ATP Requirement" is a non-issue (my opinion) because prior to the Ab-Initio fad of the late 90's, to get hired at Skywest, Eagle, etc, you needed "1500 and 3" (1500 TT of which was 300 multi) to get on with a regional, as a J-31/SF340 FO. I don't remember this causing a shortage at those places. Back in the late 80s, early 90s, people would beg for the CP name and address at the "quality" regionals such as Eagle and Skywest.
[B]
"ATP Requirement" is a non-issue (my opinion) because prior to the Ab-Initio fad of the late 90's, to get hired at Skywest, Eagle, etc, you needed "1500 and 3" (1500 TT of which was 300 multi) to get on with a regional, as a J-31/SF340 FO. I don't remember this causing a shortage at those places. Back in the late 80s, early 90s, people would beg for the CP name and address at the "quality" regionals such as Eagle and Skywest.
[B]
That said, I just see the ATP as a bump in the road for regionals. There will never be a pilot "shortage". Pay may increase some, but I doubt a regional FO will ever make a decent wage, because everybody knows an airline pilot makes a ton of money.
06-16-2012, 03:46 AM
#23
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by satpak77
Observations, nothing more
"ATP Requirement" is a non-issue (my opinion) because prior to the Ab-Initio fad of the late 90's, to get hired at Skywest, Eagle, etc, you needed "1500 and 3" (1500 TT of which was 300 multi) to get on with a regional, as a J-31/SF340 FO. I don't remember this causing a shortage at those places. Back in the late 80s, early 90s, people would beg for the CP name and address at the "quality" regionals such as Eagle and Skywest.
Regional airline system shrinking - from my observations the opposite is happening and a glimpse inside any union meeting will reflect concern regarding encroachment by the regionals into "major" territory.
Less Military Pilots - yes less than Vietnam/etc but we are exiting two wars lasting back to 2000, 2001 and we have plenty of (in addition to others) current, qualified, C-17/KC-10/KC-135 drivers with international time (and combat time, thank you for keeping us safe) who are gonna be in the resume stack. These are ALL college degreed, some Masters, groomed, know-how-to-pass-an-oral-board, candidates. Numerically, less candidates than in prior years ? Maybe. Will this be a causal factor for a shortage? Doubt it. Again, thank you for your service guys.
Expensive Flight Training: Flight training has never been cheap, and thus, has always been expensive. Yes, agreed, it is leaps and bounds more expensive than before. What are we at now ? 110 bucks an hour for a C-172 ? Yes, crazy expensive. This indeed may play a role in a shortage.
My opinion: We need to step back and look at the world-view, and skip the price of flight training, etc stuff. What may cause a shortage is todays X-box generation simply is not looking up at the sky and seeing contrails, and saying gee, I want to be a pilot someday. Also, lets face it, the old school airline career is over, gone. Days of 4 day work months to Europe, with hot FAs, in heavy iron, at 200K a year, are gone. Many are simply not going to pursue aviation. Todays sub-30 generation is few and far between those willing to earn 18K a year to sit right seat in an RJ, after having paid 100K (see training costs above), to get there. "See kid, in a few years you may be at a major, so hang in there." That generation is like, uh, negative, see ya, I want to earn a living NOW. Remember, that/this is a generation that changes jobs like every 2 years.
THAT, my friends, may cause the shortage.
"ATP Requirement" is a non-issue (my opinion) because prior to the Ab-Initio fad of the late 90's, to get hired at Skywest, Eagle, etc, you needed "1500 and 3" (1500 TT of which was 300 multi) to get on with a regional, as a J-31/SF340 FO. I don't remember this causing a shortage at those places. Back in the late 80s, early 90s, people would beg for the CP name and address at the "quality" regionals such as Eagle and Skywest.
Regional airline system shrinking - from my observations the opposite is happening and a glimpse inside any union meeting will reflect concern regarding encroachment by the regionals into "major" territory.
Less Military Pilots - yes less than Vietnam/etc but we are exiting two wars lasting back to 2000, 2001 and we have plenty of (in addition to others) current, qualified, C-17/KC-10/KC-135 drivers with international time (and combat time, thank you for keeping us safe) who are gonna be in the resume stack. These are ALL college degreed, some Masters, groomed, know-how-to-pass-an-oral-board, candidates. Numerically, less candidates than in prior years ? Maybe. Will this be a causal factor for a shortage? Doubt it. Again, thank you for your service guys.
Expensive Flight Training: Flight training has never been cheap, and thus, has always been expensive. Yes, agreed, it is leaps and bounds more expensive than before. What are we at now ? 110 bucks an hour for a C-172 ? Yes, crazy expensive. This indeed may play a role in a shortage.
My opinion: We need to step back and look at the world-view, and skip the price of flight training, etc stuff. What may cause a shortage is todays X-box generation simply is not looking up at the sky and seeing contrails, and saying gee, I want to be a pilot someday. Also, lets face it, the old school airline career is over, gone. Days of 4 day work months to Europe, with hot FAs, in heavy iron, at 200K a year, are gone. Many are simply not going to pursue aviation. Todays sub-30 generation is few and far between those willing to earn 18K a year to sit right seat in an RJ, after having paid 100K (see training costs above), to get there. "See kid, in a few years you may be at a major, so hang in there." That generation is like, uh, negative, see ya, I want to earn a living NOW. Remember, that/this is a generation that changes jobs like every 2 years.
THAT, my friends, may cause the shortage.
From what I see, younger folks (my generation included) talk a lot about what something pays. For example, Little Johnny and little Susie are talking about school; Johnny-"I major in accounting" Susie-"What's that pay?" And the same goes for Susie talking about her school and what that means in terms of pay.
*However* I still do see young folks caring *a lot* about their image, and certainly the image their job projects. Even if a job doesn't pay squat, they will still line up if the job sounds cool. Sure they will burn out and tire of the poverty wages, but fresh faces will be lined up to take their place. What this means to me, is that "uncool" low to medium paying jobs will go to immigrant type workers or have to pay up. i.e., McDonald's may have to pay above minimum wage to keep some staff around.
Will airlines have to pay up? Hopefully, but I will say parents want their kids to have cool jobs just as bad. They will fork over the money to put their kids through flight school, and run to tell their their neighbors their kid will be a "commercial" airline pilot.
06-16-2012, 06:41 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2009
Posts: 611
For what its worth, I just met a CFI student yesterday at ORD. He goes to Southern Illinois University which has had an aviation program since 1960. He said that their aviation student enrollment numbers are the highest that the school has ever had. He told me that the four-year degree program cost $100,000.
06-16-2012, 06:44 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: 320 F.O.
Posts: 1,386
Originally Posted by block30
Your last point about young generation and money....yeah, I agree with that. There seems to be a bottom line, 'show me the money' attitude towards work. Which is fine, people should care what they are worth.
From what I see, younger folks (my generation included) talk a lot about what something pays. For example, Little Johnny and little Susie are talking about school; Johnny-"I major in accounting" Susie-"What's that pay?" And the same goes for Susie talking about her school and what that means in terms of pay.
*However* I still do see young folks caring *a lot* about their image, and certainly the image their job projects. Even if a job doesn't pay squat, they will still line up if the job sounds cool. Sure they will burn out and tire of the poverty wages, but fresh faces will be lined up to take their place. What this means to me, is that "uncool" low to medium paying jobs will go to immigrant type workers or have to pay up. i.e., McDonald's may have to pay above minimum wage to keep some staff around.
Will airlines have to pay up? Hopefully, but I will say parents want their kids to have cool jobs just as bad. They will fork over the money to put their kids through flight school, and run to tell their their neighbors their kid will be a "commercial" airline pilot.
From what I see, younger folks (my generation included) talk a lot about what something pays. For example, Little Johnny and little Susie are talking about school; Johnny-"I major in accounting" Susie-"What's that pay?" And the same goes for Susie talking about her school and what that means in terms of pay.
*However* I still do see young folks caring *a lot* about their image, and certainly the image their job projects. Even if a job doesn't pay squat, they will still line up if the job sounds cool. Sure they will burn out and tire of the poverty wages, but fresh faces will be lined up to take their place. What this means to me, is that "uncool" low to medium paying jobs will go to immigrant type workers or have to pay up. i.e., McDonald's may have to pay above minimum wage to keep some staff around.
Will airlines have to pay up? Hopefully, but I will say parents want their kids to have cool jobs just as bad. They will fork over the money to put their kids through flight school, and run to tell their their neighbors their kid will be a "commercial" airline pilot.
06-16-2012, 09:34 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2009
Position: Left seat of a Jet
Posts: 514
All posts were interesting and valid to some extent considering how this business has evolve from only airlines with large jet aircraft to commuter/regional airlines operating navajos, 402s, bandits, tired metros with no codesharing between the different operators.
06-16-2012, 10:12 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2005
Posts: 495
Originally Posted by JonnyKnoxville
For what its worth, I just met a CFI student yesterday at ORD. He goes to Southern Illinois University which has had an aviation program since 1960. He said that their aviation student enrollment numbers are the highest that the school has ever had. He told me that the four-year degree program cost $100,000.
Can anyone name the Regional Airlines that existed 35 year ago?
Three pages of posts and no tomato slinging! Impressive!
06-17-2012, 09:11 PM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: 744 CA
Posts: 4,772
Simmons, Metroflight, Command Airways, Wings West,....Chapperall, Air Virginia, Avair (and I am sure one or two more) ....all existed in the late 70s and early 80s... Command Airways goes back to the mid 60's...... historical note.. all of these companies eventually ended up under either the Simmons certificate or the Flagship Airlines certificate owned by AMR and flying as American Eagle... and were latter all folded into the "American Eagle" name using the old Simmons certificate.
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