Regional Hiring Already Slowing?
09-28-2016, 07:29 AM
#21
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Originally Posted by NMuir
How many of these went on to become original certificates? Maybe 60%? Of those half might be foreign. Still several thousands of new entrants. Enough to meet the 30k in ten years projections. The airlines would like to see 80k competing for those seats. That's what's up.
09-28-2016, 07:39 AM
#22
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Originally Posted by iFlyRC
Pilot pay shortage. Pay what is required to attract applicants, problem solved. If you can't pay more, then you must make the QOL outstanding. Look at Spirit for an example.
It's not as simple as increasing pay will solve pilot shortage when you are already only getting the least possible legally qualified applicants.
Ex 1:Gas station attendant pay shortage causing gas station attendant shortage + pay increase = problem solved.
ex 2: Pilot pay shortage causing pilot shortage + pay increase = problem solved in 5-10+ years when more people finally decide the pay is good enough to pay the incredible cost of training, get their certificates, and log their 1500 hours.
09-28-2016, 07:41 AM
#23
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Originally Posted by tennisguru
And as someone said earlier, filling your class does no good with a third to half of each class is sub-par and washes out of training.
I think the washout rates are much lower than 30-50 percent. Try 10-20. If I wrong on this someone from a training dept chime in.
Yes the quality is lower, the age is older yadda yadda . They want ideal candidates, and it's understandable. There is a shortage of millenials with a 4yr degree , a clean record and eligible for an rATP, living in their parent's basement.
09-28-2016, 07:50 AM
#24
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Position: 737 FO
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Originally Posted by TimetoClimb
9k commercial airplane , that's a metric **** ton.
How many of these went on to become original certificates? Maybe 60%? Of those half might be foreign. Still several thousands of new entrants. Enough to meet the 30k in ten years projections. The airlines would like to see 80k competing for those seats. That's what's up.
How many of these went on to become original certificates? Maybe 60%? Of those half might be foreign. Still several thousands of new entrants. Enough to meet the 30k in ten years projections. The airlines would like to see 80k competing for those seats. That's what's up.
09-28-2016, 07:58 AM
#25
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Posts: 443
Originally Posted by word302
I think you are heavily underestimating the percentage of foreign students getting training here in the states. Also imagine if every airline hired every applicant 5 years ago. You would have seen 3 to 5 hundred per month at Skywest alone. Times have changed.
Timetoclimb you are seriously misunderstanding. Today the regionals are hiring any applicant that walks through the door. 5+ years ago they were selective. You had to wait for a call from them and not everyone that interviewed was hired. And the applicants had far more hours and experience than what was required and still not always getting a call.
Now not only are they hiring everyone with a pulse and letting the training department weed out the ones that don't make it but they are giving mass bonuses to hire these barley legally qualified guys (and sometimes not legal because they depend on the sim time that they are getting in training!)
09-28-2016, 08:05 AM
#26
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Originally Posted by RemoveB4Flight
Yes you're right pilot pay shortage but what does that cause?
It's not as simple as increasing pay will solve pilot shortage when you are already only getting the least possible legally qualified applicants.
Ex 1:Gas station attendant pay shortage causing gas station attendant shortage + pay increase = problem solved.
ex 2: Pilot pay shortage causing pilot shortage + pay increase = problem solved in 5-10+ years when more people finally decide the pay is good enough to pay the incredible cost of training, get their certificates, and log their 1500 hours.
It's not as simple as increasing pay will solve pilot shortage when you are already only getting the least possible legally qualified applicants.
Ex 1:Gas station attendant pay shortage causing gas station attendant shortage + pay increase = problem solved.
ex 2: Pilot pay shortage causing pilot shortage + pay increase = problem solved in 5-10+ years when more people finally decide the pay is good enough to pay the incredible cost of training, get their certificates, and log their 1500 hours.
This is where wholly owneds have a significant advantage. Other contract carriers must be payed "cost" + a certain percentage so they can turn a profit. If a major can instead pay that same money to their WO and keep the "extra profit" in house then that's what they are going to do. Non-wholly owneds would have to beat the compensation models of the WOs, and right now that looks unlikely.
The writing is on the wall.
09-28-2016, 08:16 AM
#28
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Posts: 1,609
Originally Posted by RemoveB4Flight
Yes you're right pilot pay shortage but what does that cause?
It's not as simple as increasing pay will solve pilot shortage when you are already only getting the least possible legally qualified applicants.
Ex 1:Gas station attendant pay shortage causing gas station attendant shortage + pay increase = problem solved.
ex 2: Pilot pay shortage causing pilot shortage + pay increase = problem solved in 5-10+ years when more people finally decide the pay is good enough to pay the incredible cost of training, get their certificates, and log their 1500 hours.
It's not as simple as increasing pay will solve pilot shortage when you are already only getting the least possible legally qualified applicants.
Ex 1:Gas station attendant pay shortage causing gas station attendant shortage + pay increase = problem solved.
ex 2: Pilot pay shortage causing pilot shortage + pay increase = problem solved in 5-10+ years when more people finally decide the pay is good enough to pay the incredible cost of training, get their certificates, and log their 1500 hours.
Second, it shouldn't take 10 years or even three years to go from zero to ATP. If you flight train full time and then build 80-100 hours per month then we are looking at a year and a half minimum. 1.5 years is a possibility but not very realistic I know. But 2-2.5 is a very reasonable time frame from zero to ATP not 5-10.
09-28-2016, 08:19 AM
#29
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Originally Posted by TimetoClimb
I think the washout rates are much lower than 30-50 percent. Try 10-20. If I wrong on this someone from a training dept chime in.
Yes the quality is lower, the age is older yadda yadda . They want ideal candidates, and it's understandable. There is a shortage of millenials with a 4yr degree , a clean record and eligible for an rATP, living in their parent's basement.
Yes the quality is lower, the age is older yadda yadda . They want ideal candidates, and it's understandable. There is a shortage of millenials with a 4yr degree , a clean record and eligible for an rATP, living in their parent's basement.
09-28-2016, 08:27 AM
#30
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Posts: 443
Originally Posted by Pedro4President
Alright, first of all you would be surprised at how many "non straight out of flight schools pilots" are getting jobs at the regionals these days. In the short term, higher pay will help continue to draw those people in.
Second, it shouldn't take 10 years or even three years to go from zero to ATP. If you flight train full time and then build 80-100 hours per month then we are looking at a year and a half minimum. 1.5 years is a possibility but not very realistic I know. But 2-2.5 is a very reasonable time frame from zero to ATP not 5-10.
Second, it shouldn't take 10 years or even three years to go from zero to ATP. If you flight train full time and then build 80-100 hours per month then we are looking at a year and a half minimum. 1.5 years is a possibility but not very realistic I know. But 2-2.5 is a very reasonable time frame from zero to ATP not 5-10.
First of all sounds like you're assuming every future pilot is beginning flight school right now then? Ok got it.
Also I think you're still estimating a bit low. Most people don't have the finances available to pay for certs private-commercial multi (CFI?) to get them all done one after another all in 1 year or less. The ones that have the finances typically would be getting them from financial aid while working on their 4 year degree.
I would say 4 years zero to ATP would be more reasonable.
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