We can't see WidgetSeniority "as you", so it's hard to know what the upgrade timing is showing, but I will confidently tell you that 1-2 year Captain upgrades are absolutely, 100% not happening for someone hired today. Unless you misunderstood what the training department folks said, anyone saying that is doing you a disseervice, and I would disregard them completely.

IF you haven't seen it, check out the AE Analysis thread (it's pinned within the DL forum, hit 'back' once). You can see the last 18 months of data for each bid, which shows a pretty consistent senior trend for NB Captain, which now sits in the very low 80's% overall seniority. ("Percent overall seniority" is by far the most accurate predictor, and has stayed relatively stable over time, regardless of the size of the list). There will always be some outlier bids (especially if relatively small in size, or suddenly large after a period of time). Note that WB FO trends are quite flat about 72% overall.

While past reality is clear, future predictions are always tough, as unforseen variables can change the calculus, even subltly. But the question you should ask is, "how long to hold X% seniority", knowing that we are retireing pretty close to 500/year for the next 7-8 years, then 400/year after that. What "Pilot Hiring" does is super hazy, but 1% growth is conservative. The company is saying 3-4% growth (note, that's not necessarily in pilots), but 2-3% pilot growth is probably reasonable. Doing the math, you are likely looking at 4-5 years, at least.