No thanks. Our current situation has already cost too many pilots too much. Would rather fix it from within.

Thanks for the breakdown, that actually was helpful.

So it looks like you need 200ish hours sick time to maintain your current income, not to simply use STD.

That is what I am wondering. After reading this thread, and the relevant parts of the JCBA I am still not too clear.

If someone has a 6-month emergency fund in place, or perhaps a spouse with another good income, is this sick bank thing even an issue?

If there is some way your job at Alaska is in jeopardy if a pilot goes out on a medical leave, or benefits could be deactivated without a way to pay out of pocket (COBRA) to keep them going, that is what I would like to understand.

Anything?
 

There’s no way Alaska can keep going at the pace it currently is at. I’ve heard a pretty strong rumor that American is looking at buying Alaska possibly. Anyone else hear some good rumors?

The networks makes sense, but AA is very large, the largest legacy by many measures, so the trust busters would be leery. It would certainly depend on who was in the white house.

Most likely just wishful thinking by those unhappy here.

Now that Alaska has declared it's divorce from Delta ( AK didn't want a monogamous relationship that Delta thought was necessary) why would AA buy them? They now have the milk they want from AK (access to SEA/PDX) without worrying about buying the cow. The main reason they'd want to consummate a relationship is if they thought AK planned to cut them off of the code share arrangement.

What do you mean by “the pace it is currently at”? Super low growth rate? I’ve heard they are paying off the debt from the merger very quickly. Everything I see is sustainable and as much as I’d love to see a merger I don’t see any urgency, but I’m no expert.

For all intents and purposes, AS DID cut AA out of the code share arrangement...as far as the passengers are concerned. I used to have the company ticket AS/AA when I traveled accruing the mileage from the AS flights. When that benefit went away, I switched my company travel to Delta. It doesn't do me a bit of good to fly AA for that reason. Now if that was reinstated...

But what if Delta bought Jet Blue? Then American would have no choice but to buy Alaska... Then United buys Hawaiian and Southwest continues being Southwest and we all live happily ever after.

That's not implausible. Industry watchers have certainly not ruled out one more round of mergers, and it would probably end up being balanced in the manner your describe.

At some point the trust-busters have to decide how many little airlines is too few.

On the other hand the little airlines may not be able to thrive or even survive competing against the economy of scale of the big four. Maybe the trust busters will bow to the inevitable and not force the shareholders to ride doomed small companies into the ground when saviors exist who would buy them. Especially since the sudden liquidation of even a smallish major airline would be disruptive to travel and the economy, especially at the wrong time of year. Also considering that all training bandwidth available to the big three might be consumed with replacing retirees for a number of years... if you want to keep the pilots and planes of a small major flying, may be best to ensure that operating certificate continues to operate, vice liquidation and a fire sale of assets.

I just hope they stop this Moxy business. Just what we need another startup that will buy new airplanes and not pay it's pilots in exchange for the future promise of growth... then once they actually have to start maintaining their aircraft and paying their pilots they lose money and get bought..

Not going to happen this isn't 1991. Interest rates are so low the airline is more valuable as a whole and money is cheap to borrow.

Look at Frontier, they didn't liquidate. Last airline to do that was Island Air and they were no Spirit or Frontier.

Delta will not be allowed to buy JetBlue. The overlap at JFK is way to large.

That's what I said, unlikely in this era, even the smaller majors are almost too big to fail since the capacity loss would be disruptive. But never say never.

Stock price is almost half of what it was 2 years ago... Culture is at an all time low, and growth is nonexistent. I’d say with this current administration in place, there’s probably some urgency from the “big 3” to try and make something happen.

Who cares? I mean, aside from the people that have to work here. How do ****ed off employees translate into financial distress that necessitates us being bought?

It doesn't. But it's barely possible that a lot of employee angst could cause the BOD to shuffle top managers. Some boards think that restless natives endanger the bottom line (but some boards don't).

If Delta pulled their bid for VX because they thought it wouldn't get through anti trust, why would any of the big 3 be able to buy AS?

Dougie P at AA wants to dominate hub airports. I don't see how buying Alaska will give that to him especially now that Delta has moved in on your turf.

I do see Spirit buying JetBlue if the market cap gets low enough. Or vice versa but Spirit recovered so probably not anymore.

Now THAT'S funny! 🤣

Because that never happened.

Delta pulled the bid after running up the price. They weren't as stupid and desperate as Alaska to spend a ton of money on Alaska. I am guessing that was their plan all along, some kind of longterm master plan.

See? This is why pilots do not run airlines. If AA bought Alaska they would dominate SEA. Delta moved in on our turf? Alaska Has every gate in the north terminal. Alaska has every gate in the D terminal with the exception of the 4 American gates. Alaska has every gate in the C terminal. Delta shares B with SWA except for the 2 Alaska has. A is where everyone else is and Delta's JV partners fly out of S.

Wrong again, Jet Blue ran up the price. Hainan was the 3rd bidder, but you need better than average pilot intelligence to figure that out.. Hianan being foreign needed a patterner, but they were running the show.

Alaska has less than half the passenger traffic at SEA, adding AA and you are only just above 50%. That's not really "dominating" a hub...

In comparison our hub in CLT has 91% of total traffic.

In ORD they are slowly cutting markets as they are sharing with UAL and can't really compete. Same with Phoenix and SWA. LAX is one of their least profitable hubs, actually if you read between the lines they are actually losing money there and in JFK they made money for the first time this past quarter, they've never made any money there since 9/11.

Fun fact about SEA, Delta actually carries more international freight there than FedEx.

Yeah.... Sure. I forgot you must be better than average when it comes to intelligence. After all you are an Alaskan mainline jet pilot! 😂

Either way, they still overpaid!

Wrong. Delta was Company C. "In addition, as of such date, Company C had not expressed any willingness to submit an indication of interest in connection with a potential acquisition of the Company. Company C also informed the Company that it believed regulatory approvals would be lengthy and difficult to obtain in connection with its acquisition of the Company." https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1614436/000119312516552219/d179667dprem14a.htm

Don't confuse owning lots of gates and running smaller RJ's / ATR's all over the local area as "owning" an airport.

No they didn't:


"On February 16, 2016, at Alaska Air Group’s direction, representatives of Merrill Lynch and UBS called Evercore and informed them that Alaska Air Group may no longer be willing to offer $44.75 per share in connection with an acquisition of the Company and requested that the Company indicate whether it would be willing to accept a lower offer price.

In addition, as of such date, Company C had not expressed any willingness to submit an indication of interest in connection with a potential acquisition of the Company. Company C also informed the Company that it believed regulatory approvals would be lengthy and difficult to obtain in connection with its acquisition of the Company. The closing price of the Company’s common stock on NASDAQ on February 16, 2016 was $29.29 per share.

On March 19, 2016, representatives of Company C called Mr. Carty to expressly inform him that Company C would not be contemplating an offer, as Company C did not believe that it would be able to obtain needed regulatory approvals in connection with an acquisition of the Company."


The only two airlines that actively bid on VX were AS and B6.

AS is 51% market share of SEA. Is there a difference between market share and passenger traffic? I figure those to be the same thing.

They should be the same. I pulled 2018 summary data.

https://www.portseattle.org/page/airport-statistics

Well it's official, United Continental Holdings buys Alaska Air Group...

https://wsj.com/uchpurchaseaag2019.php

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RRkriDb8EZU :D

Alaska has more than half thanks, by 1 percent. Our RJs only run out of half the C gates. Fun fact, only FedEx cares that Delta carries more cargo and it was by tonnage. Also Company C was Hainan, not Delta. Which is why they had regulatory troubles.

They should have waited to buy all the golf courses though...

https://www.mingtiandi.com/real-esta...r-137-million/

It's amusing to me you like to argue over 3% of your perceived "facts"...and that 3% delta is irrelevant anyway and doesn't make Alaska a dominant carrier by any means.

Freight it measured by tonnage like market share is measured by enplanements. I just thought it was interesting.

I have no idea who the bidders were for VX except for jetBlue and my only opinion is Alaska paid way too much but I'm not a M&A guy so who knows.

Are you sure they’re not carrying it FOR FedEx?

JetBlue and Alaska?
 

More stuff circulating on the streets that a merger is in the works behind the scenes with Alaska and JetBlue. Anyone else hearing this?

Only from the wishful thinkers