Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 2547078)

As a senior FO who has apps at the big 3, I talk to FOs as I come across and ask if they have their stuff out. My own experience, the majority of them don't have their stuff out - certainly not 8 in 10.

The problem with being 5th best is that it's only worth leaving for the 4 best above it. UAL has pulled down their hiring plans for this year, and last year they didn't even have any classes from ~March til December. AA is a simple game of military and flow math. If out of a 100 slots, 50 go military, then 35 are flows and guarantees from Envoy/PSA/Piedmont, and only about 15% true off the street hires. Chances are slim to nil for AA as a civilian OTS. That leaves Delta, which actually has hired like gangbusters, but getting a call there is still hard and a mystery. Going to their ATL job fair doesn't guarantee an interview, nor does any job fair for that matter. The 4th place is Southwest, and IMO I wouldn't leave AS/VX to go start over at SW. Same airplane, same domestic schedule with 2-5 legs/day, and a huge paycut for most people for the first several years. You'll be a FO at Southwest probably just as long as a newhire will be FO here at Alaska, and that's based on projected growth and retirement numbers (both of which are significantly less than at the 3 legacy carriers).

So that's the situation. Leaving isn't easy when you're at the 5th best. (The above doesn't include UPS/Fedex, as their flying wouldn't be my cup of tea).

Originally Posted by pete2800 (Post 2544216)

Correct. Last number I heard was somewhere between 200 and 250 for the year. Quite a ways down from their 400 number they initially told us.

I'd be happy being acquired by any of the 4 large airlines. Just not Spirit/JetBlue/Allegiant/Frontier, please.

Originally Posted by TripleCrank (Post 2547088)

This is a spot on anylysis; I would add in most have roots in the PNW and if they don’t want to commute that takes SWA off the table.

I foresee current new hire FOs in the 7 year to upgrade range for first available slot, plus or minus of course.

SWA is still in the 10 year range, again plus or minus.

Originally Posted by OCCP (Post 2547313)

It’s 5 years on the AS side, 6 on the VX side

Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 2547078)

The 4th place is Southwest, and IMO I wouldn't leave AS/VX to go start over at SW. Same airplane, same domestic schedule with 2-5 legs/day, and a huge paycut for most people for the first several years.

Originally Posted by ImperialxRat (Post 2547408)

I think you’re wrong about the paycut.. most certainly about it being huge and definitely about it being for serveral years. At most the pay cut would be for 12 months and would be pretty minimal.. my buddy started SWA at the same time I started here and he is holding 16-18 days off and making more than I do in a month, easily. Meanwhile I’m holding around 14 days off.