Industry rumor is that they're too distracted right now to commit to NMA this summer. And there are still unresolved issues such as is the market big enough?

The general public will forget about the MAX as soon as the media stops reporting about it. People forget after 2 weeks of not hearing some bit of news.

With that said, Boeing should pull its head out of its rear end and build the 797 / NMA, or whatever they are going to call it.

They can't afford screwing the pooch one more time. The 787 development was a cluster and now they have a helmet fire with the MAX.

Yes, I fly the 737, but the ship sailed on that 1958 designed tube a long time ago.

The public might have short memory but I just think that there's been paradigm shift in the minds of the airlines that bought/ordered the MAX that it's just too scarred a variant to be enthusiastic about it any more.

The 737 will not be produced forever and if there's any moment that sounded the death nell of this aircraft, the MCAS fiasco has got to be it.

No, because nothing else Boeing has competes with the NEO today. The MAX will be here to stay.

After watching a portion of a company webcast in which a question was asked regarding the max and potential passengers reaction to it, my impression following the management answer was that Alaska is still extremely enthusiastic about the max.
Just imagine they could order 50 or so max 9s park the 72 airbuses and try to call it growth.

Here’s a little fuel for the fire. I’ve been hearing the same rumor from different people that BM told the pilots of a flight he was on, an order for 101 Max’s is coming. I’d normally chalk it up to the usual “blah blah” but 101 seems rather specific. Where’s MEA to verify this :D

Nothing like putting all the company eggs in one basket, eh boys?

It's worked fine for Southwest for decades.

At this point, I don’t care what hatches, I’ll just be happy to have any eggs in the basket. We need mainline growth, who cares what airframe it come in the form of?

101-73(Airbus)=28 airframe growth minus any 700s that are leaving the property. Also over what time frame would the order be? It’s a big order if true, but what does it mean to the pilot group as far as growth.

Ask Southwest about their summer schedule of 2019. :rolleyes:

34 out of 754. :rolleyes: They'll be okay with 720 until the ban is lifted.

No idea, just passing on a rumor. Don’t believe it till it taxis in front of you and then only believe half of that.

Displacement bid.... last minute change to pump the A320 before dump, hoping to reduce training costs and footprint. An ingenious idea from one of our brightest.... pilots go where their seniority is best or home. This really only bought a little time, A320 FO movement to the Boeing pretty much blew up their plan.

Moving target with new order. Originally done in November, BM wanted one last crack with Airbus in December before putting ink to the Boeing deal. Don’t think he really wanted a deal with Airbus but was trying to sweeten the Boeing deal. Was supposed to be announced Spring 2018.

Something happened in that time frame and BM and BT went back to Boeing and got an even better deal and a much more expeditious delivery schedule. Once again AS brass rolled 7’s by dragging its feet.

Deal will not be announced until MAX is flying again. Order roomer sounds spot on plus options.

We have looked at the 797 program and passed.

I will stop posting since I am clearly unreliable!

Actually, I think you're VERY reliable. What you said goes hand in hand with exactly what I predicted when the VX merger was announced. You don't have to be Nostradamus, just familiar with the fellas at Angle Lake.

Whatever you say about them, they're consistent. Have been for the last 30 years (or at least since Bruce Kennedy left!).

Gee, I wonder what that was?

But it's plausible, AS gets a discount and earlier delivery slots (vacated by other airlines), and Boeing gets a big order from a reputable airline timed to help close the MCAS chapter.

The MAX order timetable has been available to the pilot group at least since last year. The first one shows this month, or at least was supposed to and it was supposed to be something I’d actually touch in September. As far as anything changing I’m not holding my breath. Nor would I hope anything would actually change for the better.

Just like getting from the employee lot to the gate. It only gets worse....

At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if the Port of Seattle set up an obstacle course or some kind of gauntlet for us to pass through just to get to work.


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All this is just Business 101 and the bottom line is money. Alaska management is just more ruthless and Lorenzo-like than any other major/legacy airline management in existence today. If you want to prevail in this sick and twisted game, you have to think and act like your opponent. I don't advise FOs to leave or stay but apparently, the smart and able bodied ones are bailing for greener pastures at a higher rate than expected. Regardless of what happens in 2020 and beyond or let me rephrase, well beyond, nothing will change so as long as Angle Lake's legacy management carries on. And it will.

Ok so seems like there is confusion. Alaska already has a current order with options that would replace the entire Airbus fleet. Any new order would be all growth except maybe the replacement of some older 737-9 and 700’s and maybe a few leased 800’s.

The new max order is 40 firm 900max and 60 options. With the new order 2025 looks to have 0 Airbus and 317 Boeing in the most grandiose fleet plan. That’s 4,000 pilots in 2025.
That equates to 250 pilot hires a year with retirements.

No disrespect to you but is this straight from the horses's mouth, I mean, the donkey? How many times has this management's promised fleet growth plan or any other plan for that matter come to fruition? These same management types promised us: 2,000 by 2,000, major QOL/line/pairing improvements once the MDs went away, Vision 2010, no need for Scope because "they would never do that!", negotiations in good faith, and countless empty and unfulfilled promises.

4,000 by 4,000? This is our new target? I guess it will be well after Hell freezes over and global warming wreaks havoc on its icebergs. Even if this minuscule growth takes effect, how will we find quality pilots? I hear 50% of our new hires require additional training. We are not hiring the best obviously. I'm seeing this on the line as well. This place is bleeding from both ends with no end in sight. The best thing that could happen to this pilot group is to be bought out or another D-day effort by real airline. By the way, JD Powers is fixed, if you haven't already caught on by now.

All I see is 32 MAX9s on order yet to be delivered. I can’t find options anywhere, but it would take 40 options to be fully exercised just to replace the 73 Airbuses on an airframe.

If the “new” order is 40, then that means 32+40 = 72 firm just replaces the Bus fleet. Until options are exercised, they seem meaningless.





From the original 50 Boeing order press release:

“Alaska Airlines currently operates 120 Boeing 737s. The new firm aircraft order, plus 25 existing firm delivery positions, give the carrier the flexibility to manage its fleet size to meet air travel demand over the next decade. Two-thirds of the aircraft are expected to replace older airplanes. The remaining firm orders and options will enable Alaska Airlines to grow assuming sufficient customer demand and that the company continues to achieve its profit and return on invested capital goals.”


2/3 were for replacement of older Boeing’s. Only 1/3 of those 50 were growth.

At the risk of being overly negative, any order is likely to be replacements with few if any “growth” airplanes. We can’t come close to filling our current aircraft outside of Seattle, or so it seems. If there is an order announced I’d sooner bet that the total number of mainline aircraft will ultimately shrink.

These guys only know of three ways to grow: Grow in order to survive brought on by turf wars, more seats via overstretched 737s, and E175 flying done by Skywest. They are waiting for their savior which is the next economic downturn so that they can shrink to profitability, which is all they are good at. If you look closely at this airline under a microscope, it's a miracle that they are still standing today. Bean counters are great with matrix and spread sheets but a vast majority of them lack common sense and more importantly, leadership. Name one war that was won or a successful corporation that is still thriving today led by a beancounter.

I keep hearing AS has orders and options greater than the Airbus fleet count. There are only 32 orders for MAX. How many options are there? I can’t find that info online.

We are in the middle of a turf war right now so, just like ‘13-‘16, this could be another spurt of reactionary growth. We have no laurels left to rest on at this point so it would make sense to put in a “survival” order. This management team makes me think of the mammals at the end of the age of Dinosaurs. Surviving in the shadows waiting/hoping for an asteroid to strike so they can thrive.

“Any company that’s not growing is in slow motion liquidation.” - Delta Airlines CEO

Now clearly, Delta management doesn’t know how to run a successful airline, or one that’s profitable.... but, that’s his take....
https://www.marketplace.org/shows/co...g-on-airports/

I guess that makes me pond scum


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Steve Jobs famously said, “It doesn’t make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do; we hire smart people so they can tell us what to do.” Don’t ever think you have the best ideas or answers because you don’t. If you work with someone who thinks he or she does, then that person is not a leader. Leadership means we must be willing to check our pride at the door if leading change and success are the ultimate goals.
Ours surround themselves with mindless yeschimps who'll tell them anything that management wants to hear and stroke their egos for an extra grape.

Man I wish we had all you MBA’s in Angle Lake!

You've been at AS WAAAY too long without the requisite Kool-Aid transfusion. Or you've developed an immunity to it. The truth hurts, but somebody has to say it.

All Mgmt's shoot sunshine straight up the pilot's butt, especially when they want something. Right here on this very forum, you had UAL Cappy's reporting that their mgt back in 2015 telling them they'd be at 18,000 by 2018.....oops.

737 upgrade at SFO is now under 3 years at UAL. Conservatively a 1/2 million dollar pay difference over the next 10 years, at least for my personal situation. I wish they’d call...


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On the west coast?

Last I checked SFO was on the West Coast, yes.


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☝🏻☝🏻☝🏻 😂😂😂

Options are meaningless? Huh?

Options are positions paid for by Alaska, we wouldn’t purchase them if there was no intent, we are way to frugal for that. Options allow AS management to release a smaller future liability to Wall Street, which they are much more likely to palate. To date every Alaska 737 option has been exercised. Past two orders only saw additional options being exercised.
On the date of the acquisition, AS had almost exactly the same number of 737 firm orders and positions as VX had total airframes. This has been answered several times, to include myself last summer on this board. 59 737-9 replace all the Bus capacity, a number we don’t like but management does.

30 options being exercised for the 321 neos. Giving us 40 321 NEOs, this with the 101 max order is huge growth for this the pilot group.

No one would argue... but if you wanted huge growth, you went to the wrong airline. They will hold on to those options I am sure until that Max is flying.... free insurance. From everything I have seen, 6.5 to 7 year upgrade going forward. Steady but reasonable growth. Probably 3,700 pilots in 2025 if I had to bet my own money on it.

Guess who the launch customer for the MD-90 was? Guess how many AS took? NEO options can easily be cancelled. As opined here before, those could just have been used as leverage to get better MAX prices.

The 30 A320NEOs weren't options, they are orders with pre-deliver payments (PDPs) already made. If they are cancelled, IIRC it incurs a penalty of about $14 million since they don't get any money back.