Personally I think 6.5 years is very optimistic for the SEA base. Maybe another anomaly will occur if a 737 SFO base opens, for example. Financially speaking I’m planning on 8-10 years for first available upgrade. With no improvements for the FO payscale or slope.

Hence the 1/2 milli I’ll have lost out on if UAL doesn’t call soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

UAL has been an active recruiter of AS pilots. Most popular destination for resignations this year.....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Give me a break... that’s embarrassing, like 10 pilots

Since we are such a small group... percentage n’ stuff.

Again, it’s just math.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How many pilots do you think left UAL to come to Alaska? Or DAL or SWA or FDX for that matter?

Since you asked recently I know of 1 UPS 1 United.

AS management is unconcerned about our trickle out. There are still plenty of people waiting to get in. I get it, you are not happy, but pretending our minuscule attrition will suddenly afford you a windfall is naive and childish. Management only laughs at us because they know how inaccurate your assertions are. We will get what we can negotiate and yes many people are still waiting in lines to come here.

What is 10 divided by 3000 you idiot. It’s just math yeah .003 %.

If ya want to call someone an idiot and do the math, at least get the math right :D

To make a percentage you multiply by 100 so it's .33% ;)

You are correct. I am so sorry and so embarrassed.

Never mind then... “Everyone” is leaving, classes are ending up with 6-8 no shows each month. Company is shaking in their boots.

And well you still can’t find the number of the options we had with the last order. It’s just so hard and you looked everywhere.

I never said attrition was an issue. It wasn't in the past, isn't now, and won't be in the future. We also hire very small amounts compared to other airlines so there won't be any problems attracting people here. Turns out west coast basing is actually a selling point.

I found the options. "We also have options to acquire up to 37 additional B737 aircraft with deliveries from 2021 through 2024." Hardly anything to write home about.

Welp.

There are others leaving for Delta, FEDEX, UPS et al. So I’d say the percentage is closer to 5%.

Still with 2500 pilots applying every window for less than 100 spots...

We actually have a historical precedent to determine when Angle Lake would consider changing things to reduce attrition. Just look at the numbers from the Horizon meltdown a couple of years ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

7 actually. Out of 21 resigned/soon to resign pilots, 7, at least, have gone to UA. That’s nearly double the next most popular destination of DL, at 4. A sprinkling to B6, HA, AA, etc...hence my statement. I don’t make up the numbers OTZ, and I’m not reading into them either. Just providing some facts....

Yes, one came from FX. Made sense for him to do so.

Attrition isn’t killing the company. It is running higher this year than last, YTD.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What number would make the company take notice? More than 50 a year for a couple of years?

Not saying that will happen. I'm just curious what management's unacceptable attrition number is when it comes to junior FOs leaving for other airlines.

Look at the horizon meltdown to determine this. Hint: the answer isn’t good.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

5% would be 150/yr leaving to other airlines. Our numbers aren't that high. They publish attrition lists so everyone can see it. Since retirement dates are posted in that same document you can do the math and see guys that are retiring versus leaving for other airlines. The numbers are very low.

They used to have a tolerance of 10% flight cancellation a day for maintenance issues. To extrapolate, unless they're cancelling 10% of flights A DAY for lack of crew they won't consider it a problem. Even then, they can cover that to a certain extent with VSA.

You don’t do much math do you? You might want to rethink that. It’s just math. Who’s the idiot?

To be fair I forgot the . in front of my 5% figure. But I didn’t call anyone an idiot...

Sadly that interaction is pretty typical of my “CRM” experiences at AS thus far. At least as a SEA FO.

I wish things were different, but they aren’t.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Keep updating your app. I was a Seattle FO for a bit, I feel your pain.

I didn’t make it to my second anniversary at AS before I left.

I wish you all well, but the sentiment at the bottom is far more bleak than the more senior crowd would care to acknowledge.

As I've said before, hopefully the "sentiment at the bottom" along with the VXers have radicalized the pilot group enough to take control of the MEC and the NC. That's the only way the contracts are going to get better.

New vacancy bid. Hmm

Shocking bid... Grow LAX 737 limiting movement and training costs. This is the plan tell those Max’s start coming on board. You have to hand it to management, they are not stupid.

Does the vacancy have new hires on it?

Yes. This vacancy will create 32 newhire FO positions. The previous vacancy created 26 newhire FOs, 26 SFO and 3 Airbus LAX. That's 58 newhire positions for future classes. Bids are effective Sept 1st and Nov 1st respectively. Hiring window opens July 1st apparently.

Cool, Thank you

I would guess that everyone of those slots will be filled by airbus pilots looking for greener grass. If the company chooses to fill the airbus vacancies is another question.

As they have not announced a reduction, any Airbus vacancies created will be filled.

Not till December
 

FAA official just stated that the MAX will likely be ungrounded and re-certified by December. Highly doubt MEA’s prediction of a huge ALK order in August will come true if this timeline is accurate

I don’t think I could have been more clear but obviously some are still having trouble.... the Max order will not be announced until after the Max is actually flying again. The last Boeing update had the paper work done by late June early July. There is then some maintenance that needs to happen which would likely have the planes flying again in August. If this timeline slips then so does the formal announcement of Alaska’s return to a single fleet type.

Yup. Totally ambiguous and non-specific prediction here.

Stop gaslighting and go back to your hole.

Well as it stands right now, yes August 9th you will have your announcement

Hate to tell you but the pastures are far from greener on the 73 side. The only airbus guys going to the 73 would be so they can be based at home. ie PDX,SEA

So you not only know inside info at Alaska but at the FAA too? You are amazing.

True. But in LAX it's a different story. The FOs bid the 737 for the upgrade and some FOs did Boeing for the better relative seniority in LA. On the Airbus side, it was senior Boeing CAs who bid over to be #1 and #2 in base. Can't say I blame them, they're just taking advantage of the system.

Shocking as it may sound but Alaska is in regular contact with Boeing and what Boeing is telling Alaska is the timeline I was sharing.

A lot of Airbus FO’s do significantly better on the Boeing, Captain’s on the Airbus is a different story.

Not that he/she needs MY defense but, MEA just shares what they know in an effort to convey some data. MEA doesn’t pontificate or prognosticate. It’s just info at the time. It might change. It might not. It’s just data as they have heard/understand it.

Geez Louise..... whine when you don’t have some intel. Whine when ya do and ridicule the messenger. MEA doesn’t post to say “look at me I’m all knowing”. Just, “here’s what I know of the plan... for now.... hopefully it helps”.
Take it with a grain of salt. Ignore it. Bank on it.... whatever.... but for the love..... quit throwing darts at the messenger.

I bid LAX 73 because my seniority makes me a solid lineholder there rather than reserve in SFO. Reserve sucks severely at Alaska and commuting to it in SFO is even worse. After almost 2 years of it I'm well versed. Another bitter pill is the large number of people junior to me in SEA, where I really want to be based, but can't hold, because of how "smart" Angle Lake is when they put out bids. Pilots around my seniority have been holding lines in Seattle for close to a year. That's a year of not making over guarantee, $400 a month crashpads, missed time with my family due to commutes and minimum days off. As to the survey they sent asking why I'm leaving the bus, they can put this info in their data pipe and smoke it.

I couldn't agree more. I was referencing Aesop and one of his many fables about people's foolish decisions and based on some of the off the wall statements I've heard from pilots on both fleets Aesop nailed it.

Guys in 73' miss "their" West coast flying and the Airbus people miss "their" transcons. I guess we'll see when the results are posted...

Can I get an amen!
 

100% agree! Kids these days...

Well said Av8or, I look at the message like college football preseason polls, do I bank on the information given? Hell no. Are they accurate? Maybe, maybe not. I appreciate MEA's information, accurate or not, in my opinion he/she has been more right than wrong and appreciate the info. Thanks MEA for not caving to the whiners. Appreciate the info.