I could be missing something here... but how is this a “home run for all of our careers?”

I'm wondering that too - $4.6B for 100 airplanes is a homerun for Alaska, but Alaska isn't going to use the savings from that steal of a deal to help my career. A homerun for our careers would be to have a competently managed airline with a strong pilot group acquire us.

Completely agree! 100 MAX’s just replace all Airbus’s and old 737’s... there is no growth.

If this is truly the case then every Alaska Airlines pilot should be updating their resume. It’s clear that Alaska’s management (and to a large extent, workforce) abide a different reality than the rest of the airline industry but to be so short sighted and naive to stake the future of the airline and with it their futures, and the futures of their employees, on the Ford Pinto of commercial airliners is reckless. With the exception of the cowboys at SW taking their quarterly jaunt through a gas station, the next 737 of any variant that has an accident will be the last 737 to fly, period.

If Alaska management is arrogant enough to continue to maintain status quo simply for the sake of nostalgia or “proudly all Boeing” they’ll get what they deserve when the aforementioned comes to fruition. But what about everyone who’s future is riding on these decisions?

Alaska pilots should be advocating for as diversified a fleet as possible regardless of where your fleet “affinity” lies...

Home run for all our careers by not growing by a single airframe, or a home run for all our careers by buying an underperforming ancient and irrelevant airframe?

If the FAA gives Boeing the scrutiny they deserve this time around (and they will) there is no way on this planet that the airplane is given the green light by December.

Is this a true statement?

Tail # 915-MAX9 does have the Proudly All Boeing sticker on the front like the other 737s. I don't know about the other two, but they in all likeliness have it as well. They wouldn't keep putting that sticker on if the Airbus had a long term future here.

A 737 could crash just as any other airplane could, but this time around MCAS should not (and will not) be the reason why. Just like the 2 rudder hardover issues were successfully overcome, so too can this MCAS debacle. The 737 has done well for low cost carriers like RyanAir and Southwest. The MAX will come out and be successful for years to come.




I keep hearing this homerun term be used. I also heard it when they closed NY and people here said we at VX still hit a homerun with AS. Here's something else to consider. No Virgin guy shows up in the first ~415 pilots at AS. If we switch to all Boeing, they will all take a seniority hit as they are forced off the Airbus and come slotted into the Boeing. The reason the seniority differences haven't really been seen is that the Airbus fleet still hasn't had any downgrades or displacements yet. This is why with the exception of the Airbus guys who live in SEA and PDX, you are not seeing any exodus of senior Airbus guys to the Boeing. Most of the CA movement from the Bus side to the Boeing has been upgrades. No one wants to give up their insulated seniority on the Airbus. But if we move to a single fleet, they will feel that seniority cut.

Ford Pinto... how many 737 has Boeing sold? 10,000ish. How many Max order does Boeing have? 6,000ish. AMR, UAL, British Airways, and LUV all hitched to your Pinto...Really Comments like these are the reason management consistently laughs at our lack of knowledge. We think because we are competent pilots that this qualifies us for every executive position at AS. The superiority complex among the ex-VX pilot group is hard to hear. It seems each of you is more capable then our CEO, CFO, CCO. In case you haven’t met Andrew or Brandon, these might be two of the brightest minds in aviation right now. 10-12% growth going forward 300 to 380 pilots a year hiring indefinitely. Yes, that order secures your future. I think moving forward we will as a pilot group secure SWA rates and SWA work rules. A solid and secure future for AS and yes, I think it is a home run for all of you.
If you love Airbus you might hate this plan. I think it’s the right plan for AS, its future and all of your futures.

Good luck folks if this outlandish rumor somehow comes to truth. Take a look at what the WN guys did to ATA and wanted to do to F9. Everyone else because a WN pilot is second class, in their world.

Heard it’s already worked out. Integration based on our individual DOH 😱

If we merge with anyone we will do just fine. You are comparing us to two carriers that were in bankruptcy... one was TU. None of us have anything to worry about. In the unlikely event something goes down, we will all be just fine.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Whether or not the MAX will be a capable airplane is not even up for debate, it will be just fine, despite it being an antique. What is up for debate is the willingness of the flying public to:

A.) Get back on the MAX and
B.) Get back on any 737 should another one crash anywhere in the world.

Regardless of how ill-informed the public is on any issue a perceived problem is still a problem and the MAX has an enormous publicity problem.

I don’t care if Boeing has sold 10 million 737s. Out of greed and arrogance a blind eye was turned to a KNOWN issue and attempts were made to cover it up. Ford Pinto of airliners, absolutely. Unless an airline is desperate why would they even take a chance having a fleet consisting of 100% MAX aircraft?

I wasn’t working questioning your motives with my original post but
but as far as your comment regarding former Virgin pilots I’d check my inferiority complex at the door and stop assuming. I’m neither Legacy Alaska nor Virgin so I’d stop riding my high horse under low branches. I’ve yet to peddle “inside” information on this forum only to gaslight those that call into question the information after it was disproven.

With regards to your brown-nosing management I’m sure you’re loved on the executive floor. If those two individuals are the best and the brightest in aviation what are they doing at Alaska?

Be well sir and my best for your contract negotiations.

I always wonder that too. Why are the best guys in the business working at a regional airline? Surely Delta, American, United or an overseas airline would throw money at these geniuses to get them to come over and run their business as well as they run Alaska.
Or is it because these guys aren’t the best, and the other airlines already have the best. Maybe that’s why the other airlines are in the position they are in and we are a regional that’s hung in for 87 years.

The best and the brightest... in their price range...

You and your three posts only prove my point, arrogant and clueless. I will forward your vast understandings as to what planes the flying public will and will not go on to GK. I bet his board and he would be shocked to know how close their 30 billion dollar company teeters to insolvency!

With an eye like yours and all your potential, I am sure you are days away from your first CEO post!

I personally think you're exactly correct. In fact, if the forum remembers, I called the fact that the Bus would be gone as the leases expire the day the merger was announced.

I know you guys love your Bus (as a passenger I prefer it as well!) but Alaska management discovered the value of a single fleet about 20 years ago. There's a reason the 737 is the world's best selling airliner. The Angle Lake boys are just clever enough to realize a pretty substantial discount on their upcoming order due to the MCAS controversy.

They're pretty good at striking while the iron is hot. Never underestimate the abilities of Brad Tilden when it comes to making and/or keeping money for AS. He's always had a particular genius in that arena.

Maybe its because they make plenty of money here and prefer the QOL provided by living in SEA. There are plenty of AS pilots who feel the same way.

Remember that Mark Few turned down a raft of multi-million dollar college coaching opportunities to stay at Gonzaga because his family preferred living in Spokane.

If I was in the Angle Lake shoes I'd rather live in SEA than DFW, ORD or ATL as well.

They used to say the same thing when the MD was going away. However, I guarantee you that 95% of the flying public can't tell the difference between a 737, a Bus or an E-190. Unless it has twin aisles, its all the same to Joe and Jane public.

As long as the plane gets there within 15 minutes of the published schedule and the F/As provide decent service the public could give a Shiite about what kind of plane it is. Given the collective American attention span they'll forget about the MAX issues as soon as the cancellations go away.

Probably very true.

My whole point before the name calling began was how prudent do we find it that any company (not necessarily Alaska or Southwest) would bet the entire future of their enterprise on an airplane with a blatantly tainted reputation. None of us (well maybe a few) would invest our entire savings in any one stock, let alone go Vegas and bet the thing on black.

This whole scenario played with many parallels with the rudder servo issue. How many 73's have been sold since then? Lots.

Internet/social media does play a role in public perception today. But it will quickly move on to the next bright shiny object in due course, taking all the lemmings with it.

How much of the blue kool-aid do you drink? The 300 - 380 pilots they’re planning on hiring, half are because your pilots are leaving for other airlines. So I wouldn’t chalk it up as “growth” just yet. Unless you consider the E-175’s “growth.” Which I’m sure you do. Also, a single fleet clearly works great... Southwest isn’t hurting at all right now (sarcasm)

The largest percentage of pilots leaving here are out within the 1-2 year mark. This place is literally a free type rating factory right now.

So 300-380 new pilots per year right now....is just further tacking on to the prison sentence that is “reserve” in both seats.

The attrition list with REAL numbers paints a much less dramatic picture than you guys claim. We are going to hit 300 new hires by the end of 2019 on a 2% growth year.

Yeah, but facts are not as fun. Dramatic flair, now that gets the likes!!!

Alaska has the current order of Max aircraft, plus the new order:
Growth in seat mile is about 12 to 15 percent a year. Some of that growth is exchanging 319/320 for lager Max 9. Some is real aircraft growth. Average is about 12-14 aircraft a year of real airframe growth.
Call it:
60 for retirement and medicals
40 for moving on to greener pastures
165 for additional aircraft
35 to 80 for front load hiring needed to transition to single fleet.

I guess too much. Here is what I wrote you. These are real current numbers. 60 are coming right off the top. 165ish are current year growth and 40 are departures. (although real departure have only been in the mid 20’s, we plan on 40). Front side hiring could produce a lull in hiring for a year or so around 2024-2025. That’s real growth of about 900 pilots during the next 5 years.

So 4,000 total pilots on your list by 2024 / 2025 is what you’re saying?

If we’re single fleet by 2024 and +100 MAX , -73 Airbus, that’s 27 airframe growth over 5 years. Of course Air Group growth is seat miles, so replacing a Bus with a MAX is a lot of seat growth. Meanwhile, Spirit just ordered 100 Buses, 319/320/321 all NEOs. These are growth, not fleet replacements. So I don’t see how we hit a homerun in our career by getting 100 MAX while parking 73 Buses. I just hope you’re right and that we actually grow by 900 pilots the next couple years.

Gawd, I hope corndog doesn't buy eskimo but it'll probably be a better airline in the long run with an actual working vision for a change. Hopefully one of the big three snatches the dino-eskimo instead.
I may be completely off but I can't see the eskimo grow in any significant measure in net aircraft/pilots. The boys at puzzle palace are good at increasing seat miles, farming out flying, and putting a spin on subject matters. If I were under 40, I would jump ship for the big three, FedEx, or UPS. Eskimo is a great place for a touch 'n go and may be, just may be, a mediocre career at a premier regional, just above Skywest. Oxymoron......I know. This term also sums up puzzle palace.

There is no home run. This is Alaska. Happy to be here airlines.
If you want growth, chuck 186 in the bus. That’s alaska growth.
This airline is dead in the water.

Growth for air group comes from the regionals. Share holders are happy. Pilot group?

So the total number of pilots on the list is? that’s what matters. It hasn’t changed much from 3,000 the past year ?

Hasn’t really changed at all. Even with all that growth.

Thank you for that. You get it.

As simple as I can write it:
Alaska needs 1000 pilots from now to 2025. 250 pilots are for retirements.
2025 projected seniority 3750.

Home run in the fact this company will be healthy and probably one of the most profitable moving forward. This should equate to SWA rates, scheduling package, and work rules.

Maybe a home run in kids T-ball

Sounds like stagnation central.

New hire 100- 74% or 36% relative in 5 years

2000 seniority moves up from 66% to 46% or 20% relative in 5 years

1000 seniority goes from 33% to 20% relative seniority or 13% in 5 years.

Guys these are good numbers... unless you live on the East Coast or Mid West... Alaska will only ever fix that for you by merging. 5 to 1 who knows, I would bet those odds though.

How do you make that leap of logic? The company has been profitable before, and guess what - the work rules are still shiite. Why would they spend their profits on us? I don't buy the premise that a "homerun" for the company = a "homerun" for me.

I agree. If there is one thing I have learned in 2 years here, it's that in any given situation, whether scheduling, or "growth", or really anything dealing with employees, they never desire a win-win scenario. It's always win- lose.

This is great news for people to put it all into perspective. Thanks for doing the Maffs.