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-   -   WN buying AS? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/alaska/124744-wn-buying.html)

symbian simian 10-24-2019 11:06 AM


Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911576)
New hire 100- 74% or 36% relative in 5 years

2000 seniority moves up from 66% to 46% or 20% relative in 5 years

1000 seniority goes from 33% to 20% relative seniority or 13% in 5 years.

Guys these are good numbers... unless you live on the East Coast or Mid West... Alaska will only ever fix that for you by merging. 5 to 1 who knows, I would bet those odds though.

26%?


filler

Mea25000 10-24-2019 11:55 AM


Originally Posted by symbian simian (Post 2911857)
26%?


filler

Sorry, I should have caught that.

echelon 10-24-2019 12:31 PM


After other airlines report their earnings, we believe that our 17.6% pre-tax margin and 4.5% unit revenue increase will likely lead the industry this quarter
Wow, what a quarter! Surely our new industry-leading work rules will roll out any day now to match our industry-leading profitability.

Max Thrust 10-24-2019 01:28 PM


Originally Posted by OTZeagle1 (Post 2911934)
Our compensation will come up to the industry this spring, with better work rules.

Thanks to the 320 guys :rolleyes:

OTZeagle1 10-24-2019 01:52 PM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2911947)
Thanks to the 320 guys :rolleyes:

Hopefully, thanks to everyone!

SkyKing466 10-24-2019 01:55 PM

Just a friendly reminder: 737 or 320, we are all Alaska Airlines pilots now. The mudslinging hurts unity and that's the last thing we need.

Thankfully we are a very profitable airline leading into section 6. That's about all that matters because the past is the past, and our contract is about the only thing we can control at the end of the day.

Av8rRr 10-24-2019 02:05 PM


Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911576)
New hire 100- 74% or 36% relative in 5 years

2000 seniority moves up from 66% to 46% or 20% relative in 5 years

1000 seniority goes from 33% to 20% relative seniority or 13% in 5 years.

Guys these are good numbers... unless you live on the East Coast or Mid West... Alaska will only ever fix that for you by merging. 5 to 1 who knows, I would bet those odds though.

Are you calculating retirements in these numbers?

KnockKnock 10-24-2019 02:17 PM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2911947)
Thanks to the 320 guys :rolleyes:

Really? The 737 guys were 17% behind the big 3 and the 320 guys were 13% behind the 737 guys when this all went down. Industry wages were not what the “320” guys were good at.... time to move on.

ShyGuy 10-24-2019 05:04 PM

See Pulse/Alaskasworld news article that is a Q&A with the SVP of Fleet/Finance. Can't publicly post it here but it gives some specific figures and hints at our future.

ShyGuy 10-24-2019 05:05 PM


Originally Posted by Av8rRr (Post 2911969)
Are you calculating retirements in these numbers?

Yes looks like he did.

Max Thrust 10-24-2019 05:08 PM


Originally Posted by Av8rRr (Post 2911969)
Are you calculating retirements in these numbers?

He’s simply guessing. Pay no heed

Max Thrust 10-24-2019 05:11 PM


Originally Posted by KnockKnock (Post 2911982)
Really? The 737 guys were 17% behind the big 3 and the 320 guys were 13% behind the 737 guys when this all went down. Industry wages were not what the “320” guys were good at.... time to move on.

Are you comparing W2’s?

ShyGuy 10-24-2019 07:30 PM

Per the earnings call, 1 Airbus lease return in 2020 and 9 returns in 2021.

Mea25000 10-24-2019 07:44 PM


Originally Posted by ShyGuy (Post 2912163)
Per the earnings call, 1 Airbus lease return in 2020 and 9 returns in 2021.

12 to 17 to be returned in 2022.

KnockKnock 10-25-2019 08:36 AM


Originally Posted by randomroute (Post 2912398)
Can someone explain really quickly cly to an outsider what the ongoing VX/AK beef is all about?

Sure VA was innovative and cool, but it almost didnt get off of the ground! And once it did there was money and leadership trouble. All in all, I think everyone in this industry knew VA wasnt going to last. Right?

Alaska was an old crow and not very “hip”. The customers were different and the demands of mood lighting and innovative IFE wasnt there. Im sure there are some rules/standards that lie in legacy operating logic, but in the end Alaska was not anyones first choice for travel if they werent ultimately going to SE Alaska. Right?

Next thing you know, theres a merge and two different brands are forced to work with each other. Whats the big deal? With this merge weve seen better cabins, a larger network, and a measure of dominant control on west coast market share.

So why is there still a beef? Is this a contract renewal problem or a ‘my company is better than your company!’ problem? I only ask because its ironic that this thread is about merging but the one that already happened is still problematic.

You just stepped on a hornets nest of opinions! You’ve pretty much got it right. Two little airlines have come together and each side thinks it was better than the other. It’s what happens when you attach your identity to your workplace. Pilots seem to be especially susceptible to this. Mergers, or in this case acquisitions, suck. The majority of pilots get screwed or at least have the perception of being screwed. It’s not unique to AS/VX. There is still much animosity between many pilots that have gone through recent mergers/acquisitions. Many air their grievances here on APC because it’s anonymous and they can sling mud without retribution. Real grown man stuff ;) Hopefully with the passage of a new contract that we ALL work together on, the petty b.s. will die down. Until then, standby by to get an earful of why AS or former VX SUX!!!

jayme 10-25-2019 12:16 PM

It’s been said many times... the VX guys don’t like being told they were “saved” by the “superior” pilot group of Alaska Airlines. Just look at the above post, saying it was an “acquisition” not a “merger.” Legally speaking it was a merger. Why does this guy even bring up the “acquisition vs merger” argument?

Our displeasure in encountering that attitude manifests itself as a disproportionate defensiveness and sometimes outrage.

rballan 10-25-2019 12:51 PM

The lease expiration schedule for the 53 leased A319/320s is public information as the company has previously disclosed it in investor presentations:

2019 1
2020 2
2021 9
2022 14
2023 18
2024 6
2025 3

The 10 A321NEOs are all on 12 year leases from GECAS with expirations 2029-2031. The 10 newest A320s are owned so they could be sold at any time.

Cheers - Rob.

KnockKnock 10-25-2019 01:07 PM


Originally Posted by jayme (Post 2912532)
It’s been said many times... the VX guys don’t like being told they were “saved” by the “superior” pilot group of Alaska Airlines. Just look at the above post, saying it was an “acquisition” not a “merger.” Legally speaking it was a merger. Why does this guy even bring up the “acquisition vs merger” argument?

Our displeasure in encountering that attitude manifests itself as a disproportionate defensiveness and sometimes outrage.

See, you’ve attached your identity to your former airline and assigned importance to the pilots.

First off, neither pilot group had anything to do with this marriage. AS pilots could not have saved VX pilots because we had as much control of the thing as you did. We’re all bystanders.

Second, “legally” speaking, it was an acquisition. AAG purchased VX. The two groups didn’t agree to come together and combine their companies. There was never a discussion of which management group would take the helm. There was never a merger of our boards or combining of our holding groups. The fact that you let that bother you is proof of the tribalism that interferes with our collective progress. Yes, the pilot/FA/MX groups merged and from that comes the feelings of resentment. Some gained seniority some lost seniority. Some gained bases others lost bases.

The VX guys feel stuck with the AS contract and have had no say in the rules they now work under. Some AS guys feel that since the VX guys had no contract to begin with, they shouldn’t be complaining about it. Until we all have equal share in the contract good bad or other, there will remain an us vs. them attitude. I look forward to that day.

Flyfish49 10-25-2019 01:11 PM


Originally Posted by KnockKnock (Post 2912427)
You just stepped on a hornets nest of opinions! You’ve pretty much got it right. Two little airlines have come together and each side thinks it was better than the other. It’s what happens when you attach your identity to your workplace. Pilots seem to be especially susceptible to this. Mergers, or in this case acquisitions, suck. The majority of pilots get screwed or at least have the perception of being screwed. It’s not unique to AS/VX. There is still much animosity between many pilots that have gone through recent mergers/acquisitions. Many air their grievances here on APC because it’s anonymous and they can sling mud without retribution. Real grown man stuff ;) Hopefully with the passage of a new contract that we ALL work together on, the petty b.s. will die down. Until then, standby by to get an earful of why AS or former VX SUX!!!

Randomroute and KnockKnock, thank you both. Same team.

To securing job security and gains in the next CBA!

ShyGuy 10-25-2019 01:46 PM


Originally Posted by rballan (Post 2912547)
The lease expiration schedule for the 53 leased A319/320s is public information as the company has previously disclosed it in investor presentations:

2019 1
2020 2
2021 9
2022 14
2023 18
2024 6
2025 3

The 10 A321NEOs are all on 12 year leases from GECAS with expirations 2029-2031. The 10 newest A320s are owned so they could be sold at any time.

Cheers - Rob.

Those add up to 53, plus the 10 owned, and 10 NEO leases with GECAS. The math does add up to 73. Thanks for the table!

WutFace 10-25-2019 11:46 PM

I find it hilarious that Southwest is seriously looking at diversifying their fleet makeup via merger after the 737 MAX debacle. Meanwhile, Alaska can't get back to their "All Boeing" comfort zone fast enough.

The day AS starts returning the Airbusses en masse, (who are we kidding they're going straight to Delta) is the day that you can start the countdown clock on Alaska Airlines.

KnockKnock 10-26-2019 07:39 AM


Originally Posted by WutFace (Post 2912788)
I find it hilarious that Southwest is seriously looking at diversifying their fleet makeup via merger after the 737 MAX debacle. Meanwhile, Alaska can't get back to their "All Boeing" comfort zone fast enough.

The day AS starts returning the Airbusses en masse, (who are we kidding they're going straight to Delta) is the day that you can start the countdown clock on Alaska Airlines.

You sound like one of those YouTube preachers that keeps predicting the rapture and then says, “the calendar was misinterpreted”, when it doesn’t happen. AS is gonna be around for a while longer. Flying the ever living sheet out of the MAX with that Big ol’ Eskimo smiling down on you for years to come :). Turn that frown upside down buddy.

plt32173 10-26-2019 11:30 AM

Regarding “fleet mix” which was mentioned about a dozen times, heres my takeaway from the 3rd qtr Q&A.

-Airbus going away.
-Most likely adding another fleet type to fill the 100-150 seat gap.

Anyone else get this vibe?

ipdanno 10-26-2019 12:11 PM


Originally Posted by WutFace (Post 2912788)
I find it hilarious that Southwest is seriously looking at diversifying their fleet makeup via merger after the 737 MAX debacle. Meanwhile, Alaska can't get back to their "All Boeing" comfort zone fast enough.

I doubt WN is “seriously looking at diversifying their fleet makeup via merger...”

WN is ensconced in their “All Boeing” comfort zone, and I don’t think that is going to change any time soon.

flysnoopy76 10-26-2019 12:15 PM


Originally Posted by plt32173 (Post 2913026)
Regarding “fleet mix” which was mentioned about a dozen times, heres my takeaway from the 3rd qtr Q&A.

-Airbus going away.
-Most likely adding another fleet type to fill the 100-150 seat gap.

Anyone else get this vibe?

-Most likely adding another fleet type at horizon and or Skywest to fill the 100-150 seat gap.

That’s what everyone here should be concerned about, because right now there’s nothing to stop it from happening.

squall line 10-26-2019 01:35 PM

Skywest won’t be doing the flying assuming it’s an aircraft larger than what they have now. We can thank the scope clauses of the other majors they fly for for it. It will be brought in house or QX.

Max Thrust 10-26-2019 05:00 PM

If air group wanted out of the Airbus fleet they would have canceled the last 2 NEO deliveries. Also, if they’re going to pay 25m per year to have multiple types and the NEO is going to be here for at least the next 12 years, then it stands to reason that an order for more NEO’s is imminent. Plus 220’s to fill the gap, flown by mainline, but that’s just my guess.

OTZeagle1 10-26-2019 05:25 PM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2913169)
If air group wanted out of the Airbus fleet they would have canceled the last 2 NEO deliveries. Also, if they’re going to pay 25m per year to have multiple types and the NEO is going to be here for at least the next 12 years, then it stands to reason that an order for more NEO’s is imminent. Plus 220’s to fill the gap, flown by mainline, but that’s just my guess.

What? really
😂😂😂

Bugaboo 10-26-2019 09:35 PM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2913169)
If air group wanted out of the Airbus fleet they would have canceled the last 2 NEO deliveries. Also, if they’re going to pay 25m per year to have multiple types and the NEO is going to be here for at least the next 12 years, then it stands to reason that an order for more NEO’s is imminent. Plus 220’s to fill the gap, flown by mainline, but that’s just my guess.

I don’t think there will be an order for anything except for the MAX. Its been said over and over again that AS is in for the long haul with Boeing. Its true and the writing is on the wall. Once the MAX is back in the air I think there will be a big order announced.

grkero 10-27-2019 05:46 AM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2913169)
If air group wanted out of the Airbus fleet they would have canceled the last 2 NEO deliveries. Also, if they’re going to pay 25m per year to have multiple types and the NEO is going to be here for at least the next 12 years, then it stands to reason that an order for more NEO’s is imminent. Plus 220’s to fill the gap, flown by mainline, but that’s just my guess.

What if Boeing agrees to buy Alaska out of Airbus leases to sell more MAXs? Just because AAG says “we never break leases” doesn’t mean they wouldn’t let someone else pay for it.

They love the performance of the 321NEO, but once we get the MAX9 flying I think it’ll be further apparent there is no long-term need for the 321.

Packrat 10-27-2019 07:41 AM


Originally Posted by grkero (Post 2913319)
What if Boeing agrees to buy Alaska out of Airbus leases to sell more MAXs? Just because AAG says “we never break leases” doesn’t mean they wouldn’t let someone else pay for it.

They love the performance of the 321NEO, but once we get the MAX9 flying I think it’ll be further apparent there is no long-term need for the 321.

Exactly correct. What most of you Bus fans forget is AS was the LAUNCH customer for the MD-90. Guess how any showed up on the property...ZERO.

Leases are cancelled, traded and sold all the time. All AS has to do is get a better offer or price for the MAX from Boeing and it will be a done deal. As someone earlier said, Delta will take ALL of AS's Busses in a heartbeat.

You don't think Brad knows that? As I recall he was the CFO when the MD-90 cancellation went down. Why did that happen? McDonnell-Douglas offered them a sweet deal on late model MD-80s coming down the line.

OhSnapAF 10-27-2019 07:58 AM

Are we still pretending that AS doesn't have a major order for MAXs already, and we just don't know about it? The lack of vision in almost every facet of this company would almost guarantee that the Bus is going away. Taking the inferior choice because it is cheaper seems to be the battle plan here. It only makes sense that everyone else is buying NEOs and we would rather have an iPhone 5 with a new battery as our flagship aircraft.

ShyGuy 10-27-2019 02:06 PM

My guess is 120-150 Boeing orders for a mix of MAX 8/9/10s. :D

ELAC321 10-27-2019 08:27 PM

Ya"ll here worried about NEO Vs MAX orders, meanwhile Alaska management shopping 175-E2's and 190s for which we have no scope protection.

Priorities are embarrassing here.

OhSnapAF 10-27-2019 09:32 PM


Originally Posted by ELAC321 (Post 2913704)
Ya"ll here worried about NEO Vs MAX orders, meanwhile Alaska management shopping 175-E2's and 190s for which we have no scope protection.

Priorities are embarrassing here.

Well, we have the pilot group to blame for that. It is what it is, but Alaska pilots have had 87 years to fight for industry standard work rules. Every other major airline has them, yet here we are in 2019 having to fight for things that should have been done a decade ago. THAT is what is embarrassing here.

Max Thrust 10-28-2019 06:52 PM


Originally Posted by OhSnapAF (Post 2913717)
Well, we have the pilot group to blame for that. It is what it is, but Alaska pilots have had 87 years to fight for industry standard work rules. Every other major airline has them, yet here we are in 2019 having to fight for things that should have been done a decade ago. THAT is what is embarrassing here.

2 decades ago

OhSnapAF 10-28-2019 07:53 PM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2914145)
2 decades ago

So true. I was trying to be nice 🤣🤣

Packrat 10-29-2019 09:11 AM


Originally Posted by Max Thrust (Post 2914145)
2 decades ago

You can't compare today's airline environment with the 1990s, especially when it comes to pilot job opportunities.

OhSnapAF 10-29-2019 02:47 PM


Originally Posted by Packrat (Post 2914413)
You can't compare today's airline environment with the 1990s, especially when it comes to pilot job opportunities.

No but you can compare the rest of the industry's contracts to ours in 2019.

MicrowaveDave 11-04-2019 02:17 PM


Originally Posted by ELAC321 (Post 2913704)
Ya"ll here worried about NEO Vs MAX orders, meanwhile Alaska management shopping 175-E2's and 190s for which we have no scope protection.

Priorities are embarrassing here.

Not gonna happen.


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