WN buying AS?
 

Anyone else hearing the rumor that Southwest is looking into buying Alaska if the MAX doesn't get certified?

Like doesn't get certified, ever? How is this supposed to work?

No, haven’t heard that one

What, you really think the MAX is not going to be certified. Really?

I heard today, just from a fellow crew member, who knows as much or less than the rest of us, that the 737Max never passed the wind tunnel testing. Some how, the aircraft, by virtue of the big ass engines, was not aerodynamic enough to pass the test?? I don’t even know how it works or what the wind tunnel test proves, or is, or if it’s a certification requirement.

I heard on the news that United or American was planning flights on the max to resume the first of the year, but with the increased scrutiny focused on the FAA because of this self certify, good old boys club attitude, it might be more difficult than originally planned.

I don’t know, I don’t work for an airline that flies the Max. Just sharing what I heard. I like Steve Dickson, (New head of the FAA). He’s a no nonsense guy and if you can be in charge of 14,000 pilots and rarely have a bad word said about you, you’re an exceptional leader. And that’s what we have. Hopefully the Max issues get worked out and those aircraft get back in the air, soon.

We've been hearing rumors on our side (SWA) about Alaska, JetBlue, Spirit and Copa for a few years. In my opinion, not happening but odder things have happened in this industry. Plus I have a hard time believing that the DOT would allow it but just my $.02. The MAX will be back but I don't think that it will be as soon as the media and Boeing is making it out to be. I hope that I'm wrong though.

I heard that if you say “Bloody Mary” into the mirror three times.....she appears! :eek:

You started a whole thread for a rumor?

Yea...that never happens! :p

DOT has little to do with it, it's DOJ and FTC.

As to the political practicality of an airline merger...

1. Would it result in a merged entity significantly larger than DL or AA (this is a bit nebulous depending on whether you look at revenue or ASMs or even fleet count)?

2. Would it result in a significant monopoly at any big hub or regional market?

If the answer is no, it would likely pass muster with the current administration. #2 could be (and has been) addressed by divesting gates/slots to balance out competition.

Whether it makes business sense is of course a whole 'nother issue. But corporate leaders in general will assume that two smaller companies in the same business can generally achieve cost savings and efficiencies by merging.

I think AS could be acquired by SW, or merge with anyone smaller. I think they could be acquired by UA with west-coast divestitures (not saying that makes sense). Could maybe be acquired by DL, the merged entity would be bigger than AA but not that much bigger.

AS is rumored to be on the buyout block continuously for the last 30 years. Sounds like 'pilot wishing' to me.

I think the odds are slim that the max won't be certified but if it doesn't, the big 4 will be looking to purchasing a smaller airline to maintain growth.

Southwest will buy Frontier and scrap the 737 max

Or just order Airbus and Boeing will continue the NG line until another airframe is given the go ahead.

Because Airbus doesn't have a bunch of planes sitting around and would take awhile to restart the NG line.

I think the NG line is still operating small scale, (military P8) and I’m sure as far as timelines go, re-expanding the line would take much less time than negotiating the purchase of another airline which takes a couple of years. I think airlines would be more inclined to buy reduced price NG’s than spend billions on another airline just to solve a relatively short term problem. UAL seems to be content buying all kinds of used narrow body aircraft to feed their growth. No hint at a buyout/merger to fill their void. I’m not saying future mergers/acquisitions won’t happen but I don’t believe the Max re-certification will drive it.

There is no "wind tunnel test" to pass during certification. You certify the airplane by flying it, not by flying a scale model in a wind tunnel.

The wind tunnel is a tool used to validate designs and gather preliminary data before building and flying the real thing.

As usual, the rumors are wrong.

I am buying Alaska.

As much as I would like to see DL buy Alaska, I honestly think the expansion DL has made in Seattle would make approval very difficult to achieve.

Please tell us more about this test! :D

As the airframe is already categorized, wind tunnel is R/D not required for certification. In lay, its not a new plane. Boeing in all it's infinite wisdom tunnel-tested anyway. It sucked. That, I believe, was the antecedent antithesis for maneuvering augmentation.

SD as FAA head? Really doesn't matter. Nothing of his work at Delta shares commonality with running the FAA. This is a desk job were his influence on policy change is about as effective as trying to shoot a flea with a handgun. He does what he's told by either the parent boss, the WH, or top lobbyists. Easy Peasy.

Just to play devil’s advocate for a moment; SW+AS would be significantly larger than any other carrier in terms of domestic US market share. Isn’t that the limit of jurisdiction for the DOJ anyways? Could DL/AA/UA make a complaint this would result in an anti-competitive environment and perhaps they would need to buy a domestic carrier to compete against SW/AS? Interesting to think of...

No, depending on how you measure "size" (fleet? Pax? ASMs?) SW + AS would be in the ballpark of AA and DL, perhaps still smaller than both.

Even if it were the largest somehow, that's still not a show stopper as long as they are not significantly larger than any other competitor, and does not create market monopoly. West coast is the only issue, AS and SW have no hub overlap. IIRC SW presence is relatively small at all AS hubs.

That's just the DOJ sniff test, not speculating on the business case although they have large fleet commonality. And the bus's IIRC come off lease soon.

I think DL would be less likely than several other partners. But they could simply agree to divest some SEA gates to get under the DOJ wire. It's been done before. Might have to do that at LAX too, not so sure about that.

Delta could spin off horizon, freeing up a bunch of gates in Seattle and also recouping a decent amount of money.

Of sell Horizon to OO for about 15 pence.

OO just recently extricated themselves from their acquisition ventures. Doubt they're interested in doing that again any time soon.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...hoo&yptr=yahoo

Maybe you’re wrong.

Boeing seems confident Max certification by mid Q4...? We shall see. If something is coming M&A wise, I think it will be UAL and LUV doing the consuming. ALK most certainly has a target on its back right now.

I think SWA fleet diversification is likely now, if not a foregone conclusion.

1. Boeing let them down, bigtime.
2. The elephant in the room now is what if the max got grounded AFTER it had replaced many/most/all of the NG's? I think this is a wake-up call for ANY single fleet operator (could happen to the other guys too).

AS is probably not an ideal acquisition target if fleet diversification is the goal, although they have buses, and more bus order positions in hand.

Good to cya back. 👍🏻

I would guess you are right. If LUV moves on JetBlue, almost certainly I would guess UAL moves on ALK. I think the other two are too big to make a play. The only move ALK would have left in this case would be Frontier or HAL. I would put the odds at 5 to 1... reasonable anyways

Thanks Av8

MARK MY WORDS. THE MAX WILL NOT BE AIRBORNE UNTIL AT LEAST FEBRUARY 2020. MINIMUM. First thing we will have to read about on APC is that pilots are receiving and actively learning about MCAS. When you start reading that, place you stock purchase bids at all Boeing operators and at Boeing itself. Until then, fuhgeddaboudit.

As of early September, Alaska will be returning 3 Airbuses, still love the NEO variant, have 40 Maxes on order and think that a dual fleet "could" work but may steal a deal with Boeing in light of 346 souls lost. Here's the deal...If it isn't a NEO, that Airbus will go in due time. NEOs can even be gone if the MAX ever gets off the ground which is anticipated by Wall Street in 2Q20 so plan accordingly. Long term, IMO, 30 Airbus NEOs and the rest Boeing. Ever wonder why the "Proudly All Boeing" decal hasn't been removed?

One full year of grounding is kinda ridiculous, considering we know it was because it was only linked up with one AOA sensor and then started to fire once that one sensor malfunctioned. That malfunction started a failure mode with a stick shaker on the CA side and erroneous speed/altitude values. We know now once the flaps came to 0, MCAS started to fire and would continue to do so with the malfunctioned AOA. Either pull the speed back and flaps to 1, or cut off those trim cutoff switches. Again we know this in hindsight.

The fix is simple, and Boeing has already said they will link MCAS to both AOA sensors. Both sensors would have to sense/read a high alpha value to get MCAS to operate. And once it does, it’ll fire one time with a limited amount of nose down trim. No more tug of war. In fact, if it was linked to both sensors, neither crash would have happened because MCAS wouldn’t have operated.

Now if we want to discuss Boeing’s coziness with the FAA, the FAA allowing too much reign at Boeing, should maybe reel them in, that’s all great discussion for future changes. But this one MCAS problem is fixable, Boeing is ready, and “testing” the fix is in November. There’s no reason to keep delaying the grounding once the fix is ready and implemented + tested by the feds.

As long as Trump leaves the tariffs on the Airbus and tariffs on China, the ungrounding of the MAX with EASA and CAAC can easily become political - not based on safety. I could see a case where the FAA is ready to lift the grounding, but other nation regulatory authorities say no. And if their nations build the Airbus and are benefiting, with very very little MAXes in Europe, why should they be in any hurry to lift a competitor when their own product has a tariff on it? Or they can simply say we want more time to study the Boeing fix and results. This IMO is why the industry is projecting lifting the MAX in Feb/March. Maybe even Q2. (That would suck). Ultimately, I don’t know if it’s a realistic goal to have one universal un-grounding of the MAX. One chosen date the whole world is okay with? All it takes is one nation to say no.


A319/320s don’t have a future here, the lease returns are happening. The future of dual fleet would be NEOs or go back to all 737s. Time will tell but Boeing will give $$$$ sale deals to sell the MAX en mass once it’s flying again. If we’re bettin’ in Vegas IMO we go back to an all Boeing fleet.

good rumor but the more likely version is

SWA "sucks it up" until the MAX is back, all those years of smart financial management provides them with the ability to do this.

MAX comes back and SWA resumes its growth/etc

SWA reviews other aircraft types aka A-220, etc

by the way, the FAA may indeed say, well Boeing, what ELSE have you not told us ?

and make them re-certify more, or, all, of the airplane.

The 3 MAXs have come out of the factory with the "Proudly All Boeing"

I had concerns along those lines, more about other specific issues coming to light in the course of the investigation, if BCA has been taking broad liberties with their self-approval authority.

But they won't un-certify the entire plane just "because". Too much political and economic blowback.

Max recertification should be inked by no later then mid December by the FAA. Training and maintenance completed by mid February. Max flying passengers March 1st. I am 99% sure we will be a single fleet by 2024. Very few will know the actual numbers but I keep hearing whispers of around 4.6 billion for 100. If numbers any where near that are true then this is absolutely a home run for all of our careers.