Airline Pilot Central Forums

Airline Pilot Central Forums (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/)
-   Alaska (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/alaska/)
-   -   WN buying AS? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/alaska/124744-wn-buying.html)

ASAPsafetyGUY 10-17-2019 12:22 AM


Originally Posted by Big E 757 (Post 2905982)
I heard today, just from a fellow crew member, who knows as much or less than the rest of us, that the 737Max never passed the wind tunnel testing. Some how, the aircraft, by virtue of the big ass engines, was not aerodynamic enough to pass the test?? I don’t even know how it works or what the wind tunnel test proves, or is, or if it’s a certification requirement.

I heard on the news that United or American was planning flights on the max to resume the first of the year, but with the increased scrutiny focused on the FAA because of this self certify, good old boys club attitude, it might be more difficult than originally planned.

I don’t know, I don’t work for an airline that flies the Max. Just sharing what I heard. I like Steve Dickson, (New head of the FAA). He’s a no nonsense guy and if you can be in charge of 14,000 pilots and rarely have a bad word said about you, you’re an exceptional leader. And that’s what we have. Hopefully the Max issues get worked out and those aircraft get back in the air, soon.

As the airframe is already categorized, wind tunnel is R/D not required for certification. In lay, its not a new plane. Boeing in all it's infinite wisdom tunnel-tested anyway. It sucked. That, I believe, was the antecedent antithesis for maneuvering augmentation.

SD as FAA head? Really doesn't matter. Nothing of his work at Delta shares commonality with running the FAA. This is a desk job were his influence on policy change is about as effective as trying to shoot a flea with a handgun. He does what he's told by either the parent boss, the WH, or top lobbyists. Easy Peasy.

Flyby1206 10-17-2019 03:07 AM


Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 2906276)
DOT has little to do with it, it's DOJ and FTC.

As to the political practicality of an airline merger...

1. Would it result in a merged entity significantly larger than DL or AA (this is a bit nebulous depending on whether you look at revenue or ASMs or even fleet count)?

2. Would it result in a significant monopoly at any big hub or regional market?

If the answer is no, it would likely pass muster with the current administration. #2 could be (and has been) addressed by divesting gates/slots to balance out competition.

Whether it makes business sense is of course a whole 'nother issue. But corporate leaders in general will assume that two smaller companies in the same business can generally achieve cost savings and efficiencies by merging.

I think AS could be acquired by SW, or merge with anyone smaller. I think they could be acquired by UA with west-coast divestitures (not saying that makes sense). Could maybe be acquired by DL, the merged entity would be bigger than AA but not that much bigger.

Just to play devil’s advocate for a moment; SW+AS would be significantly larger than any other carrier in terms of domestic US market share. Isn’t that the limit of jurisdiction for the DOJ anyways? Could DL/AA/UA make a complaint this would result in an anti-competitive environment and perhaps they would need to buy a domestic carrier to compete against SW/AS? Interesting to think of...

rickair7777 10-17-2019 06:27 AM


Originally Posted by Flyby1206 (Post 2906787)
Just to play devil’s advocate for a moment; SW+AS would be significantly larger than any other carrier in terms of domestic US market share. Isn’t that the limit of jurisdiction for the DOJ anyways? Could DL/AA/UA make a complaint this would result in an anti-competitive environment and perhaps they would need to buy a domestic carrier to compete against SW/AS? Interesting to think of...

No, depending on how you measure "size" (fleet? Pax? ASMs?) SW + AS would be in the ballpark of AA and DL, perhaps still smaller than both.

Even if it were the largest somehow, that's still not a show stopper as long as they are not significantly larger than any other competitor, and does not create market monopoly. West coast is the only issue, AS and SW have no hub overlap. IIRC SW presence is relatively small at all AS hubs.

That's just the DOJ sniff test, not speculating on the business case although they have large fleet commonality. And the bus's IIRC come off lease soon.

rickair7777 10-17-2019 06:31 AM


Originally Posted by Baradium (Post 2906643)
As much as I would like to see DL buy Alaska, I honestly think the expansion DL has made in Seattle would make approval very difficult to achieve.

I think DL would be less likely than several other partners. But they could simply agree to divest some SEA gates to get under the DOJ wire. It's been done before. Might have to do that at LAX too, not so sure about that.

cmrflyer 10-17-2019 08:08 AM

Delta could spin off horizon, freeing up a bunch of gates in Seattle and also recouping a decent amount of money.

ASAPsafetyGUY 10-17-2019 10:06 AM


Originally Posted by cmrflyer (Post 2907002)
Delta could spin off horizon, freeing up a bunch of gates in Seattle and also recouping a decent amount of money.

Of sell Horizon to OO for about 15 pence.

rickair7777 10-17-2019 12:57 PM


Originally Posted by ASAPsafetyGUY (Post 2907111)
Of sell Horizon to OO for about 15 pence.

OO just recently extricated themselves from their acquisition ventures. Doubt they're interested in doing that again any time soon.

AwkwardTurtle 10-21-2019 11:23 AM


Originally Posted by Reactivity (Post 2906471)
As usual, the rumors are wrong.

I am buying Alaska.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/n...hoo&yptr=yahoo

Maybe you’re wrong.

Mea25000 10-21-2019 02:06 PM

Boeing seems confident Max certification by mid Q4...? We shall see. If something is coming M&A wise, I think it will be UAL and LUV doing the consuming. ALK most certainly has a target on its back right now.

rickair7777 10-21-2019 04:53 PM


Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2909976)
Boeing seems confident Max certification by mid Q4...? We shall see. If something is coming M&A wise, I think it will be UAL and LUV doing the consuming. ALK most certainly has a target on its back right now.

I think SWA fleet diversification is likely now, if not a foregone conclusion.

1. Boeing let them down, bigtime.
2. The elephant in the room now is what if the max got grounded AFTER it had replaced many/most/all of the NG's? I think this is a wake-up call for ANY single fleet operator (could happen to the other guys too).

AS is probably not an ideal acquisition target if fleet diversification is the goal, although they have buses, and more bus order positions in hand.


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 05:06 PM.


Website Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands