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-   -   WN buying AS? (https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/alaska/124744-wn-buying.html)

Av8rRr 10-23-2019 09:28 AM


Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2910737)
Ford Pinto... how many 737 has Boeing sold? 10,000ish. How many Max order does Boeing have? 6,000ish. AMR, UAL, British Airways, and LUV all hitched to your Pinto...Really Comments like these are the reason management consistently laughs at our lack of knowledge. We think because we are competent pilots that this qualifies us for every executive position at AS. The superiority complex among the ex-VX pilot group is hard to hear. It seems each of you is more capable then our CEO, CFO, CCO. In case you haven’t met Andrew or Brandon, these might be two of the brightest minds in aviation right now. 10-12% growth going forward 300 to 380 pilots a year hiring indefinitely. Yes, that order secures your future. I think moving forward we will as a pilot group secure SWA rates and SWA work rules. A solid and secure future for AS and yes, I think it is a home run for all of you.
If you love Airbus you might hate this plan. I think it’s the right plan for AS, its future and all of your futures.

How much of the blue kool-aid do you drink? The 300 - 380 pilots they’re planning on hiring, half are because your pilots are leaving for other airlines. So I wouldn’t chalk it up as “growth” just yet. Unless you consider the E-175’s “growth.” Which I’m sure you do. Also, a single fleet clearly works great... Southwest isn’t hurting at all right now (sarcasm)

Flyboy8784 10-23-2019 10:55 AM


Originally Posted by Av8rRr (Post 2911119)
How much of the blue kool-aid do you drink? The 300 - 380 pilots they’re planning on hiring, half are because your pilots are leaving for other airlines. So I wouldn’t chalk it up as “growth” just yet. Unless you consider the E-175’s “growth.” Which I’m sure you do. Also, a single fleet clearly works great... Southwest isn’t hurting at all right now (sarcasm)

The largest percentage of pilots leaving here are out within the 1-2 year mark. This place is literally a free type rating factory right now.

So 300-380 new pilots per year right now....is just further tacking on to the prison sentence that is “reserve” in both seats.

Broey 10-23-2019 11:57 AM

The attrition list with REAL numbers paints a much less dramatic picture than you guys claim. We are going to hit 300 new hires by the end of 2019 on a 2% growth year.

KnockKnock 10-23-2019 12:03 PM


Originally Posted by Broey (Post 2911238)
The attrition list with REAL numbers paints a much less dramatic picture than you guys claim. We are going to hit 300 new hires by the end of 2019 on a 2% growth year.

Yeah, but facts are not as fun. Dramatic flair, now that gets the likes!!!

Mea25000 10-23-2019 02:22 PM


Originally Posted by Av8rRr (Post 2911119)
How much of the blue kool-aid do you drink? The 300 - 380 pilots they’re planning on hiring, half are because your pilots are leaving for other airlines. So I wouldn’t chalk it up as “growth” just yet. Unless you consider the E-175’s “growth.” Which I’m sure you do. Also, a single fleet clearly works great... Southwest isn’t hurting at all right now (sarcasm)


Alaska has the current order of Max aircraft, plus the new order:
Growth in seat mile is about 12 to 15 percent a year. Some of that growth is exchanging 319/320 for lager Max 9. Some is real aircraft growth. Average is about 12-14 aircraft a year of real airframe growth.
Call it:
60 for retirement and medicals
40 for moving on to greener pastures
165 for additional aircraft
35 to 80 for front load hiring needed to transition to single fleet.

I guess too much. Here is what I wrote you. These are real current numbers. 60 are coming right off the top. 165ish are current year growth and 40 are departures. (although real departure have only been in the mid 20’s, we plan on 40). Front side hiring could produce a lull in hiring for a year or so around 2024-2025. That’s real growth of about 900 pilots during the next 5 years.

Av8rRr 10-23-2019 02:42 PM


Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911358)
Alaska has the current order of Max aircraft, plus the new order:
Growth in seat mile is about 12 to 15 percent a year. Some of that growth is exchanging 319/320 for lager Max 9. Some is real aircraft growth. Average is about 12-14 aircraft a year of real airframe growth.
Call it:
60 for retirement and medicals
40 for moving on to greener pastures
165 for additional aircraft
35 to 80 for front load hiring needed to transition to single fleet.

I guess too much. Here is what I wrote you. These are real current numbers. 60 are coming right off the top. 165ish are current year growth and 40 are departures. (although real departure have only been in the mid 20’s, we plan on 40). Front side hiring could produce a lull in hiring for a year or so around 2024-2025. That’s real growth of about 900 pilots during the next 5 years.

So 4,000 total pilots on your list by 2024 / 2025 is what you’re saying?

ShyGuy 10-23-2019 02:54 PM


Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2910586)
Max recertification should be inked by no later then mid December by the FAA. Training and maintenance completed by mid February. Max flying passengers March 1st. I am 99% sure we will be a single fleet by 2024. Very few will know the actual numbers but I keep hearing whispers of around 4.6 billion for 100. If numbers any where near that are true then this is absolutely a home run for all of our careers.

If we’re single fleet by 2024 and +100 MAX , -73 Airbus, that’s 27 airframe growth over 5 years. Of course Air Group growth is seat miles, so replacing a Bus with a MAX is a lot of seat growth. Meanwhile, Spirit just ordered 100 Buses, 319/320/321 all NEOs. These are growth, not fleet replacements. So I don’t see how we hit a homerun in our career by getting 100 MAX while parking 73 Buses. I just hope you’re right and that we actually grow by 900 pilots the next couple years.

Arctichicken 10-23-2019 03:20 PM

Gawd, I hope corndog doesn't buy eskimo but it'll probably be a better airline in the long run with an actual working vision for a change. Hopefully one of the big three snatches the dino-eskimo instead.
I may be completely off but I can't see the eskimo grow in any significant measure in net aircraft/pilots. The boys at puzzle palace are good at increasing seat miles, farming out flying, and putting a spin on subject matters. If I were under 40, I would jump ship for the big three, FedEx, or UPS. Eskimo is a great place for a touch 'n go and may be, just may be, a mediocre career at a premier regional, just above Skywest. Oxymoron......I know. This term also sums up puzzle palace.

cmrflyer 10-23-2019 03:58 PM

There is no home run. This is Alaska. Happy to be here airlines.
If you want growth, chuck 186 in the bus. That’s alaska growth.
This airline is dead in the water.

cmrflyer 10-23-2019 04:00 PM

Growth for air group comes from the regionals. Share holders are happy. Pilot group?


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