Originally Posted by Broey (Post 2911238)

The attrition list with REAL numbers paints a much less dramatic picture than you guys claim. We are going to hit 300 new hires by the end of 2019 on a 2% growth year.

Originally Posted by cmrflyer (Post 2911458)

Hasn’t really changed at all. Even with all that growth.

Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911516)

As simple as I can write it:
Alaska needs 1000 pilots from now to 2025. 250 pilots are for retirements.
2025 projected seniority 3750.

Home run in the fact this company will be healthy and probably one of the most profitable moving forward. This should equate to SWA rates, scheduling package, and work rules.

Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911358)

Alaska has the current order of Max aircraft, plus the new order:
Growth in seat mile is about 12 to 15 percent a year. Some of that growth is exchanging 319/320 for lager Max 9. Some is real aircraft growth. Average is about 12-14 aircraft a year of real airframe growth.
Call it:
60 for retirement and medicals
40 for moving on to greener pastures
165 for additional aircraft
35 to 80 for front load hiring needed to transition to single fleet.

I guess too much. Here is what I wrote you. These are real current numbers. 60 are coming right off the top. 165ish are current year growth and 40 are departures. (although real departure have only been in the mid 20’s, we plan on 40). Front side hiring could produce a lull in hiring for a year or so around 2024-2025. That’s real growth of about 900 pilots during the next 5 years.

Originally Posted by ASAPsafetyGUY (Post 2911561)

Sounds like stagnation central.

Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911516)

Home run in the fact this company will be healthy and probably one of the most profitable moving forward. This should equate to SWA rates, scheduling package, and work rules.

Originally Posted by echelon (Post 2911614)

How do you make that leap of logic? The company has been profitable before, and guess what - the work rules are still shiite. Why would they spend their profits on us? I don't buy the premise that a "homerun" for the company = a "homerun" for me.

Originally Posted by Mea25000 (Post 2911576)

New hire 100- 74% or 36% relative in 5 years

2000 seniority moves up from 66% to 46% or 20% relative in 5 years

1000 seniority goes from 33% to 20% relative seniority or 13% in 5 years.

Guys these are good numbers... unless you live on the East Coast or Mid West... Alaska will only ever fix that for you by merging. 5 to 1 who knows, I would bet those odds though.