More than just joining One World?
02-20-2020 | 09:36 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jun 2010
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02-20-2020 | 12:42 PM
#22
Works Fri-Sun, golf M-Th
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 264
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From: Golf Cart
$115? That’s a hell of a valuation and premium.
But fwiw the guy did say he’d increase a premium to stock holders by 4B to a 12B total. To me that’s more of a reasonable valuation if you’re throwing darts at a blank wall. I have no horse in this race, just entertaining to see how news is spun in certain circles.
But fwiw the guy did say he’d increase a premium to stock holders by 4B to a 12B total. To me that’s more of a reasonable valuation if you’re throwing darts at a blank wall. I have no horse in this race, just entertaining to see how news is spun in certain circles.
02-20-2020 | 01:45 PM
#23
On Reserve
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 47
Likes: 6
A normal change of control premium for a publicly traded company is 25-30%.
Also, for those talking about only buying 51%, please google the term "squeeze out". In a tender offer, you are typically required to buy out all stockholders.
Cheers - Rob.
Also, for those talking about only buying 51%, please google the term "squeeze out". In a tender offer, you are typically required to buy out all stockholders.
Cheers - Rob.
02-20-2020 | 02:08 PM
#24
OTZEagle1
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 409
Likes: 0
$115? That’s a hell of a valuation and premium.
But fwiw the guy did say he’d increase a premium to stock holders by 4B to a 12B total. To me that’s more of a reasonable valuation if you’re throwing darts at a blank wall. I have no horse in this race, just entertaining to see how news is spun in certain circles.
But fwiw the guy did say he’d increase a premium to stock holders by 4B to a 12B total. To me that’s more of a reasonable valuation if you’re throwing darts at a blank wall. I have no horse in this race, just entertaining to see how news is spun in certain circles.
7.7 EPS 2021 x 10 plus 20-40% premium... we are in the ball park.
02-20-2020 | 02:23 PM
#25
OTZEagle1
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 409
Likes: 0
stock swaps happen in mergers, the scale of Alaska to American is different than Continental and United though. But Continental did enter the star alliance with United before the merger. The Doj approved it after a while, then merger talks resumed after they felt assured a merger would be approved. Not sure that’s what we are dealing with here but there is precedent.
https://www.flightglobal.com/united-.../93279.article
https://www.flightglobal.com/united-.../93279.article
If equity were dispersed in a similar manner and valuation of UAL and CAL, ALK shareholders would hold 40% of the equity of the new company. Good luck selling that to the AMR shareholders. AMR needs a stock price of $60-70 for this to be at all palatable.
02-20-2020 | 02:37 PM
#26
On Reserve
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 47
Likes: 6
Efficient markets theory states that all future expectations are discounted into a current stock price. So today, that is $65.36 per share plus whatever you believe the appropriate change of control premium is.
Cheers - Rob.
Cheers - Rob.
02-20-2020 | 02:43 PM
#27
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 889
Likes: 24
Please no merger, I hope our companies can work together and we both become more profitable. With our massive debt and still trying to fully integrate from the last merger, I want nothing to do with this.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
02-20-2020 | 03:16 PM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 531
Likes: 0
I wasn't aware of this. An LBO or take-private requires total purchase. Which, btw, the board can authorize on behalf of shareholders for a fair price followed by liquidation and delisting, no?
02-20-2020 | 03:29 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 2,450
Likes: 0
From: Airbus button pusher
I think that would be a very tough sell to the Alta Mesa Resources stock holders (AMR)
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