My numbers included furlough mitigation, reading M’s last post... he is including furlough mitigation. Furlough mitigation can probably save 200-250... there is a lot of ambiguity in that section too. It is a reason we are not closer to 500 furloughs.

M, Bronze level? But what is more likely, that or another round of consolidation?

never give up pay even for a short time. Considering they never fixed fo slope they can take their pay cut stick it you know where.

There are over 60 pilots on disability on the list right now. How does that affect the furlough metric?


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We have around 3050 on the list, a 15% reduction would be 458 furloughed. Assuming everything is linear. Reducing avg. guarantee 75 to 65 (in accordance with sec 23) is a 13.3% reduction. So the 385 number you mentioned doesn’t really look like much mitigation. Previous manpower assumptions seem to have everyone maxed out all the time, above guarantee, premium, flex-up months, FAR limits. So to me it looks like there’s a lot of slop to go from that down to 65 hours. Just a question of “Do the right thing” and come a mutual agreement.

This. In spades. Stop negotiating in public.

Cheers - Rob.

Data mining the garbage being spewed here?

I guess if they wanted a wholly inaccurate picture of things to come. OK.

I doubt any pilots didn’t get the big fat message that it’s time to save money and not buy a new Corvette, NB kicks or jean shorts.

Sure save your money. Bad times ahead. But how bad? No one knows.


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I said it’s NOT linear. 2909 is the number of active pilots. That is minus Management and Medicals. Subtracting 10-15% was just a simple way to show numbers that are complex. Without LOA’s, retirement, furlough mitigation the numbers would probably be around 700. This really is like 9-11 and 2008 combined, it’s really tough guys. 185- 210 narrow bodies flying Q4. That’s 2200-2500 pilots needed under normal scheduling rules. If we get through this mid 2-300’s, we navigated this really really well. I couldn’t agree more, no more pay cuts, but there is a cost to that, a very human cost. This thing will turn around and we will get everyone back, it’s just going to take time.

Wow. An astounding number taking 0 paid leave. Honestly surprised!

Pay cuts and/or concessions are a no-go for this pilot group. They can ask but the answer will be a big fat NO. It’s the oldest play in the book - pay cut used as furlough mitigation. No airline in the history has ever been saved through labor offering up pay cuts and concessions. Period. Don’t be a fool by negotiating on public forums.

92 seems like a good number, Alaska thought 40 in each seat so pretty close. It honestly surprised me a little, especially on the FO side.