​​​​​​​He said an additional 50%..

American scope will be bypassed through Alaska. The 190/200 will be flown by horizon with an Alaska flight number with a majority of passengers codeshared from American. Just like that American scope is useless

I hope you're right about the travel numbers. In the summer we were starting to recover and then the increase in summer cases along with local quarantine rules (14 day) made the bookings dip and demand went down. If this is the second wave starting and the same thing happens again, we could very well stall. So as long as we are still using phrases like 6 feet, social distancing, avoid crowds, people are not coming back en mass onto planes.

Horizon is not getting 195’s

Is that 50% in addition to the 35% the industry is currently running? i.e. 85%. I believe that is what he is saying.

Or is it just 50%. A growth by next summer of 50%-35% today = 15% growth from today? I believe that is what you were saying.

I’ve been saying my crystal ball says 75% to 80% summer of 2021.

That’s what AS thinks too. All I’m saying is the effects of the second and third wave are not known, but it can very well kill demand like it did in the Summer. Fauci is on CNN talking about what it would take for another lockdown. And Biden is already on record saying if his experts advise him to, he will. If anything like that happens then airline travel will tank again. I’m hopeful for 80%. If we can hit that, no further cuts at Alaska because the whole leave program was based on that level by next summer. But if travel tanks, maybe we get to 50% next summer. If that’s the case then it’s bad news for all airlines.

Actually the effects are known, we have lived through it since what mid March? The issue is that the business has to go on, or the money will go find another home. I’m staying positive, still haven’t even come close to the estimate Tony was preaching in the beginning. Numbers are trending, especially to the rock. Also as much as the prom queens hate the product, AH was correct about the cabin preforming well in the good times and also driving revenue in the bad.

Would they announce a MAX order during the 3rd quarter results? Or possibly more Central America routes?

I tend to agree that additional waves of outbreaks will each have less impact on the economy (and travel) as people get sick of it all, realize that they didn't die (or even get sick) during the previous outbreaks. At least up until the point where lockdowns are imposed again.

I somewhat agree. Covid fatigue is setting in and many low risk folks are choosing to live their lives again. Most people aren't going to die from covid so why keep your life on hold for months on end?

Here's the problem for our industry. A rather large minority of the population is at risk or lives with someone who is at risk. These people won't travel until covid is gone. It's that simple. Most people don't need to travel by air and will choose not to until the virus is under control. The airlines live on thin margins, 6 to 11%... If we can't get 25-40% of our usual passengers to come to the airport the airlines will continue to bleed cash and be forced to shrink drastically.

There's an attitude amoung many pilots that people's fear of covid is out of control and unrealistic. You guys are looking at it the wrong way. These people aren't in a panic, they're just making rational choices. Most people don't need to travel and traveling puts you far more at risk for catching the rona than staying at home. It's not a panic choice, it's more like, 'nah, I don't wanna go. Seems like a bad idea." Many aren't afraid of dying, they just don't want to get sick and risk being out of work for weeks. Others rely on grandparents for babysitting and don't want to take the chance that they'll accidentally infect grandma. There are a myriad of logical, rational reasons not to travel due to Covid. It's not left wing media brainwashing, it's common sense.

​​​​​

Very well said. Also people don't want to get stuck paying for a hotel for two weeks while they're quarantining

If those same people are willing to go to the local grocery store to stock up, Lowes/Home Depot to get the parts to fix the toilet, local restaurant to eat in or get take out, or go to work their fear is irrational. The risk is the same as travelling. Any interaction with people will eventually result in all of us coming into contact with the virus.

Maybe they're trying to minimize their overall risk by not taking on additional, unnecessary risk?

You gotta eat, or fix the broken toilet, but you don't have to fly, could be their thinking.

Eating then being able to flush what you ate seems a little more essential than flying somewhere for a vacation. Especially to cities that have increasing spread.

I am not arguing about what is essential or important to someone. If those people are already out in public and shopping and working then there is no added risk to travelling.

You know, that's like saying if you're already swimming in shark infested waters in the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean, then there's no added risk to do it in the Indian Ocean.

Or if you bed Lisa, Abby and Mariah unprotected, then there's no added risk to do the same with Jen.

The risk is incremental.

Edit:
Actually, to more accurately make the point, I should have said that if you bed Lisa, Abby and Mariah who has the cooties (Corona) with protection (mask, social distancing, etc), you do actually take on more risk if you then go on to bed Jen who also has the cooties, even if you still use protection.

I retired from the eskimo 2 years ago. I have the time and the loads are low enough that I can go anywhere I want right now. I also realize that I and my wife are in the age group that would not do well if we got the rona, so I stay home. I also haven't been to Freddy's, Costco or Home Depot since March, if I need it it gets delivered or I do without. The risk vs reward just isn't worth it. Not hauling around 2 old fart non revs won't hurt you, but not hauling around leisure travelers and business travelers (zoom meetings are the new norm) is going to hurt until the all clear (effective vaccine) is sounded.

Wow. Haven't been in a store since March? Turn off the news. Life your life. Don't live in fear of everything.

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So he should just ignore it, act like it doesn't exist?

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It really shouldn't be that hard for you to understand why this is a bad argument. People NEED to eat. They NEED to have a working toilet in their home. They NEED to work. Very few people NEED to travel.

I thought masks and social distancing worked?

I understand what you are saying but if you are around people in the store, restaurants/takeout and at work there is no difference between that and being around people in stores and restaurants at another place. Be rational.

You are correct, exactly right. If you are swimming with sharks the body of water doesn't make a difference. The people who are really and truly afraid of catching this virus will stay in and drastically reduce their interaction with other people. My argument is that if you are not doing that, if you are shopping and eating out there is no more or less risk doing those things in another location.

I have plenty to do on my property and rarely watch TV. The point is there are many folks that have chosen to hunker down until this goes away. The issue we see is one can spread this disease long before they even feel sick, and the symptoms are across the board from a runny nose to death, so why risk it?

When people with time and resources choose not to travel the airlines are not going to recover.

The majority of scientists agree that this isn't going away. What's your long-term plan?

I understand your reasoning and if you are in a higher risk group then you should limit your interactions.

The recovery is already in progress. Over one million passengers on Sunday and a nice uptrend. Holidays will probably bring 1.2 to 1.3 million and next summer will likely be between 1.5 and 2 million. Once international returns we will be back on historic trend and passenger numbers will eventually be higher than the previous records from 2019.

It is important to remember that your situation is yours alone. There are many people in a similar situation that do not make the same choices.

Going to the store places you in public for ~30 minutes, whereas traveling does so for hours thus increasing your chance of exposure. How is that not a rational conclusion?

Apparently you haven't been to the store with my wife.:(

Seriously if you go to Wal Mart for half an hour sometime in the next few days just count how many people you come into contact with. When you go to a restaurant does your wait staff wear their mask properly? Not in my area. Do they touch your drink with bare hands? Do you know how many times they have handled someone else's glass? Do they wash their hands after every interaction? Is the kitchen staff wearing masks/gloves? Properly? Do you sanitize your hands after touching every door handle? Come on be honest, your hands would be a dried out block of crusted skin by now if you did.

If you are not locked up on your own property, growing and cooking your own food, not receiving anything by delivery, and not going to work or even visiting with other family then you are already exposing yourself.

"Be rational"...says the person who is desperately imploring people to shell out hundreds/thousands of dollars for leisure travel during a global pandemic because them not doing so is having too negative an effect on his career.

Ok, buddy. Lol.

From Boeing Max order to scope issues to travel numbers to “why don’t people fly if they’re going shopping,” to how close you get to waiters and people at Walmart.

I wonder if your before takeoff checklists start with “seatbelts - check” and end with, “they’re putting chemicals in the water that’s making the frogs gay!”

I actually feel like this is a fairly accurate representation of being at work these days


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I don't work for a 121 airline. I am part 91. My flying has increased.

I don't care if anyone flies. If your reasoning for not flying is that you will be around people but you shop in stores, go to restaurants, and visit with friends and or relatives, flying doesn't add any risk to your life and you are being irrational. You can do those things in another location without it being any more dangerous than doing them in your hometown.

LoL! Too true...

The body of water might not matter, but how frequently you choose to jump into that shark infested water and not expect to be attacked sure does.

Not sure if you're deliberately distorting my position, or just truly misunderstanding it, but I highlighted the main point​​​​​ of my argument (The risk is incremental.), and added the Edit for a reason. The increased risk determination for any set of risky activities, even if the risk level is the same for each, is a function of how frequently one engages in those activities.

As a matter of fact, if you take just one activity, going to say Home Depot as an example, then the guy/gal who goes there 4 times a week, is taking on more risk of contracting Covid, than someone who goes twice a week. (Yes it is low, but quantifiable none the less).

Increased frequency - increased probability - hence increased risk.

Its a risk/reward determination that each person/society has to make, and some things will be worth the risk, while others might not.

Let's assume that a person goes to the grocery store once per week. And maybe to Home Depot once in that same week (remember the crapper is broke), and they go out to eat maybe twice. Now lets put them on vacation in a beach town nine hundred miles from home for the same week. They still go to the grocery store to stock up, no difference there. They go to the beach store to get little Jimmy a floatie. Since they don't have to go to Home depot because they don't have to fix the crapper at the rental, no difference there either. The beach is open air so same as going to the park. You'll still eat out some. You might be tempted to do that more than twice like you usually do at home but there's a pandemic so you just cook in the rental. No more risk there. The only thing you're doing that is out of the ordinary is being in another town and getting on a plane where masks are mandated and the air is changed every five or six minutes. Travelling does not carry more risk than living normally.

OK now lets inject politics because that'll complete the trifecta. The government should mandate every household airfare to one destination. They MUST fly by 12/31/2021 or risk being fined. The airfare is tax deductible.

Let’s bring religion into this too while we’re at it.

Again, you're missing the point. We are not living normally. There is a risk of being infected everytime you step out of the "assumed" safe space of your house.

Conveniently, you're assuming there is a 1 to 1 exchange of the quantity and level of all the risk factors, between staying at home, and embarking on a vacation. I do not share that view. People will be getting out more, and letting their hair down because well, they're on vacation.

It's no coincidence that as the towns and cities open up more in an attempt to get back to normal, including vacation travel, there has been a predictable spike in the cases of infection.

Increased frequency - increased probability - hence increased risk - Borne out by spike in the number of infections.

I may be missing your point but you are definitely missing mine. I am living my life exactly normally. I go to the store, restaurants, and on vacations. I will either have already been exposed to the virus or will be. There is no way to escape an airborne virus. It is coming for you unless you completely isolate yourself from society. Any measures you take to avoid the virus will only prolong the time until you inevitably are exposed.

You are being pretty arrogant and dismissive of people's intelligence if you believe that they can't act responsibly on vacation. I am not advocating that you should be drunk, dancing on tables, and rubbing up against strangers in a night club. I am saying that a family can take a vacation without measurably increasing their risk of catching a virus. Especially since that virus will, like all other airborne viruses, eventually make its way to you anyway.

Look around you, there are millions of people living their lives without dying. The treatment methods and drug protocols have improved so much as doctors have gained experience that a fat 74 year old who has never eaten a healthy meal in his life can now recover in days. This virus is not even close to the doom and gloom predictions from months ago but we seem to be acting as if they were true.

You can stay in the house and change your life if you want. I will be out enjoying life.

Now you're conflating arguments.

I'm not saying people must stay locked up in their house and shouldn't try to live. Mask, social distancing, testing, and all the other tools in the Public Health tool box is intended to help us try and resume some semblance of normalcy once we've reached the appropriate baseline.

I get on with my life. Just had lunch at a restaurant with a buddy of mine today, and I've taken my family, 6 of us, on two trips already, including on an airplane. I'm cognizant of the increased risks, but comfortable that the consequences of being infected should be minimal for us, given our family history. It doesn't mean in the back of my mind, I'm not aware that things could actually go sideways, so that's where each of us have to figure out our own risk tolerance.

As far as your accusation of me being dismissive of people's intelligence about whether people can be trusted to be responsible on vacation - Please, get off your sanctimonious high horse. Lol

First, you don't understand human nature. I didn't say EVERYBODY on vacation is going to disregard the guideline. I've bought into the need for following the guidelines, and even I found myself slipping, and I've seen other people slipping too, on vacation.

Second, we've actually seen first hand college kids blatantly disregarding the guidelines with their stupid behavior.

And third, in general we know that there are some people who haven't bought into the public health guidelines related to Corona and its borne out by their actions.

​​So finally, I'm gonna say this one last time, because now we're beating a dead horse. You take on increased risk, when you take on increased activities. That is just statistics and probabilities. It's just Math.

I can lead a horse to water, but I can't force him to drink.