Additional Max Order Rumored
 

Reuters generally reports facts, vice fabricating them, so a reliable rumor.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN26T3A4

Last numbers I have seen:
Summer 2025
156 NG
109 MAX
0 Airbus
(55 MAX FLEX) 2023-2028
Right now Boeing is trying to sell AS on MAX8’s, we prefer MAX9’s and MAX10’s...

Predicable. However, I learned something a long time ago: “I’ll believe it when I’m sitting in it and collecting a paycheck.”


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How are they planning on flying into SNA, DCA, etc...?

Skywest was doing sna - ord

737 800 and MAX 8 can takeoff full out of DCA, SNA, OGG, LIH. MAX 9 would most likely have to restrict some seats.

MAX9 and MAX10 would be ~170+ seats. With 319s gone and -700s totaling less than 20, what’s going to fill the 90-150 seat market?


I don’t think I want to know. But it probably begins with a H and ends with n, or begins with S and ends with t.

Its probably easier with Horizon to avoid scope entanglements at Skywest with their other partners, but your right, most likely e-190/195 or A220 at horizon.

Better QX than OO... easier to pry them out of QX's cold, dead hands cuz they're still air group property.

If OO buys 190's to operate for AS, you can kiss those planes goodbye.

please explain how it’s easier to reclaim outsourced aircraft due to them being outsourced to Horizon?

Major airlines such as Delta have scope clauses that prevent SKYW from flying aircraft with more than 76 seats. Even if SKYW operates aircraft with more than 76 seats for other regional airlines such as Alaska Airlines.

There is nothing contractual to prevent Horizon from operating a 100 seat aircraft for Alaska Airlines

I think that’s what Rick meant


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This is a true point. Delta’s contract with Skywest stipulates that they cannot fly >76 seats for a competIng carrier. I believe Rick is saying aircraft of that nature will be easier for mainline Alaska pilots to negotiate ownership of from Horizon as opposed to a non-wholly owned regional contractor such as Skywest.

Yes, if OO buys the planes (they usually do, but not always), then they would require a lengthy contract to minimize tail risk (post-contract mortgage obligations). In order to get out of such a contract early would require huge penalties.

With QX, airgroup ultimately owns it all, so they could transfer the planes (and flow the pilots) with minimal fuss.

Unlikely OO would fly them anyway, due to scope with other partners (unless the BK judges take care of that for them).

On what planet would that happen? I guess we are living in opposite world

If things don’t get a lot better the chances of a bankruptcy at a major are still very high


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No, I meant planes flowing up to Mainline. That would be "doing the right thing"

I’m a skeptic myself. I learned what “doing the right thing” means to management during my probation year.

They expect it from us but don’t do it themselves...


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There will be no no planes or pilots “Flowing Up” to mainline. Horizon flying jets is a C scale operation to us. We already operate for the same rates 100 to 200 seat airplanes. Allowing a 190 or a 220 to be added to our certificate for anything less than a 321NEO or a MAX 10 rates would be a major failure on our part. But Brad and Ben appreciate your desire to do just that

Why not also look at the MAX7 and MAX8?

They are looking at 7’s... I would put it at unlikely. I think it makes a lot of sense but I also think SFO should remain open as a Boeing base. Hopefully, the order comes out with 7,8,9, and 10’s. I hear it’s 40 firm new, plus the old 37 order, plus 88 options 😂. Good news, we are hoping to take every option. Numbers right now I heard are 37 8’s, 40 9’s. All the options are 9’s, convertible to 10’s.

I’m one of the the cross bidders, Boeing to Bus. Held out on the first few bids as SD and others were saying 737 Bay Area base soon....well That didn’t happen. I’m assuming it was a co-term issue but fingers are crossed we can keep SFO as a 737 base.

If Alaska does their usual, turn tail and run, routine then Southwest is going to chase us out of the Bay Area to Hawaii markets and that will probably be the end of a long term SFO base. Let’s see if we try to put up a fight in Oakland.

They gave writing on the wall for the SFO base. The only saving grace could be a co-domicile potential, where pilots cover all three SFO, OAK, and SJC. If that doesn’t happen there’s just too many different fleets going into those 3 airports.

There was already a negotiation that failed surrounding a Co-Terminal agreement for the bay area. Our position was to tighten up Co-Terminal language and their’s was to gut it as if it was a gift. So there is that.

No concessions! I am not interested in subsidizing a MAX order and management stock options. Order planes or don’t order planes, I am not interested in subsidizing growth that may or may not happen. Just remember every MAX they take could result in a return of a NG. If they think they have to furlough to survive, furlough. Our company is solid, we will weather this storm, management has stolen enough from our careers!

The most likely thing to happen will be AG buying a lot more 175s for Horizon...


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.... or 190s

I would not mix metaphors. E175 or bust. Keep aircraft maintenance and parts simple.

Who's suggesting concessions? Someone in mamagement?

The Anglers wisely waited for Gary Kelly to lead the charge. SWA is going to furlough in 2021 and that alone makes it easier and inevitable that we will too. Just using SWA as a cover.

How would the OneWorld play into that issue of scope?

No idea but if I’m not mistaken OneWorld codeshares with carriers from all over the world that don’t have scope clauses.


Not sure if the American pilots union contract covers this subject


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I wouldn't hang your hat on AA scope, the judge might have something to say about that.

To be fair, AA’s scope in a “hypothetical” bankruptcy will still be better than Alaska’s.

Every recovery path is being modeled on an effective vaccine that 70% or more of the population takes. A recent poll showed HALF said they won’t be getting the jab. Can’t say I blame them. This isn’t anti vaccine. This is anti most rushed vaccine in the history of mankind for a virus that kills <0.8% population. People will do their own risk analysis and decide if it’s worth it to them.


Travel is stalled out at 25-35% of pre-pandemic levels and October is almost over, with worldwide hints of the start of the second wave. There is nothing so far to hint a recovery to 80% by next summer.

It doesn’t really matter if half the population doesn’t get the vaccine; the ones who need the shot to feel safe will do so, and that alone will give them enough confidence to at least venture outside their basements. At that point the case numbers become less relevant. This is a fear issue, and nothing more. The vaccine’s placebo effect will be enough.

Week-over-week growth of the 7 day average has been at about 1.25% for the last month. At that rate we get an additional 50% in 40 weeks, right around 4th of July next year. Not saying this will happen, but it’s actually not correct to say we are ‘stalled out’ because the overall trend is positive.

We’re at 45% and climbing.

I'll buy that. I also think 50% by next summer. So where does that leave airlines other than massive furloughs?